The New York Giants were swept by the Washington Commanders last season. The Giants’ NFC East rival went on to lose in the NFC Championship game to the Philadelphia Eagles, while New York toiled in turmoil en route to a three-win season.
The Giants’ Week 2 loss was further marred by New York’s decision not to promote practice squad kicker Jude McAtamney, as 37-year-old Graham Gano dealt with an injury. Gano was hurt on the opening kickoff, and the Commanders kicked seven field goals to win 21-18.
Shane Bowen’s defense struggled, despite holding the Commanders to zero touchdowns. I detail it in this video:
The Commanders defeated the Giants in Week 9, 27-22. Wide receiver Terry McLaurin had two touchdowns on two catches, and New York fell to 2-7 on the season. Daniel Jones would be benched two games later.
Thankfully, the 2024 season is over. The Giants’ defense added valuable pieces that should help New York defend Kliff Kingsbury and Jayden Daniels. However, Washington added pieces as well:
Washington’s offensive additions
The Commanders traded for left tackle Laremy Tunsil (Texans) and wide receiver Deebo Samuel (49ers). The former is an elite upgrade and the latter fits in well with offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s horizontal attack. After a contract dispute, Terry McLaurin has returned to the team and is ready for Week 1.
Washington also drafted Oregon offensive tackle Josh Conerly Jr. in the first round, wide receiver Jaylin Lane (Virginia Tech) in the fourth, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Arizona/New Mexico) in the seventh round; Croskey-Merritt — who goes by “Bill” — will work in a running back by committee with Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Austin Ekeler, after the Commanders sent Brian Robinson Jr. to the San Fransciso 49ers in another trade (not related to Samuel).
Unfortunately for Washington, its impressive starting right guard, Sam Cosmi, is still recovering from a torn ACL, so veteran Nick Allegretti is expected to receive the start.
Giants’ defensive additions
New York sought to improve its defense through the draft and free agency. They added safety Jevon Holland, cornerback Paulson Adebo, and several depth defensive line pieces in March during free agency. Then they spent the number three overall pick in the draft on Penn State pass rusher Abdul Carter. The former Nittany Lion joins Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, and Kayvon Thibodeaux as one of the most fearsome foursomes in the NFL.
Still, as Brian Burns has made clear, the Giants have not proven anything, and being good on paper isn’t worth the paper; it must translate to the football field. New York also added defensive lineman Darius Alexander in the third round, but the rookie had a slow start to minicamp and training camp. It’s unclear how many reps he’ll receive in Week 1.
Giants vs. Commanders
The Commanders’ offense averaged 28.5 points per game last season, ranking them fifth in the NFL. They had a +94 point differential, and they were the number one scrambling offense in the NFL; Jayden Daniels rushed for over 600 yards scrambling, alone, which was a problem for the Giants.
Here are the NFL Pro’s matchup comparisons by the numbers from the 2024 teams:
But, as previously noted, the Giants bolstered their defense, and the team benefits from having another year in Shane Bowen’s system.
Kingsbury abused Bowen’s secondary depth in Week 2, and I expect a similar approach against the Giants to start the 2025 season. The Giants’ defensive strength is by far their pass rush, so it behooves Kingsbury to avoid situations where Daniels is holding onto the football.
I expect a heavy RPO and quick horizontal passing attack with a healthy dose of the running back by committee on the deck to temper Dexter Lawrence, Burns, Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux. Washington was almost even in 2024, with 3×1 and 2×2 usage, and often worked with 11 personnel (62% of the time).
The Giants will likely employ a lot of nickel, and they’ll have their hands full with the talents of Jayden Daniels. I do expect the Giants to use Abdul Carter as a spy, but that will only be situationally; Carter’s ability to get after the quarterback from every angle should be his primary usage. With that said, New York MUST watch out for Daniels’ legs, as they attempted to do in Week 9 but failed to execute upon in Week 2.
Kingsbury has a successful rushing attack. Most of their runs are out of shotgun or pistol with a mesh-point to keep backside defenders honest. There’s also a lot of movement and misdirection on the offensive line and PONY (two running back) formations to further confusion. Kingsbury should use the ground game to slow down the Giants’ pass rush and to out-possess New York; that’s why an early lead from the Giants’ offense would severely assist the Giants’ defense.
I expect a heavy dosage of Samuel as the No. 2 (inner) receiver, or the No. 3 in 3×1 sets, to be used on bubble screens to facilitate yardage to keep Washington ahead of the sticks. The Giants’ secondary defenders — their linebackers, safeties, and Dru Phillips — must be efficient tacklers; this may be the defining feature of the game.
Suppose Washington employs a quick passing attack against off-leverage defenses, with a sound ground game, and the Giants miss their makeable tackles. In that case, Washington will be in a prime position to tire out the defense and secure a win. Avoiding third and long situations, or other obvious passing circumstances, depending on game script, is crucial for Washington.
Now, the Giants have a challenging task ahead of them. New York may opt to run more middle-of-the-field closed formations with an extra defender in the box to account for Daniels’ dynamic rushing ability. If that’s the case, Paulson Adebo and either Tae Banks or Cor’Dale Flott will receive one-on-one matchups, and they must win some of these 50-50 balls to force second or third and long, depending on when Kingsbury dials up those shots.
Also, if the middle-of-the-field closed looks are zone (Cover 3), then the curl-flat defenders will have ground to cover, and Daniels/Kingsbury will attempt to exploit that space to the field side. Safeties that are rolled down and Phillips could be difference makers for the Giants’ defense in these situations.
The chess match between Bowen and Kingsbury should be excellent to watch, and the former has a tall task ahead of him. Stopping Jayden Daniels was rarely achieved last season by those who occupy the same job as Bowen.
Still, the Giants had this game circled for months. Shane Bowen understands what it’s like to play against Daniels and has plenty of tape on the talented second-year professional. Now it is up to Bowen to devise a plan to slow down the quarterback, and it’s up to the Giants players to execute.
Final thoughts
The Giants are 7.5-point road dogs in this 45.5 over/under (Draftkings). Other sites are a bit more favorable to the Giants, but predicting an upset is still bold. I can see an upset transpire, though. New York has upgraded its defense, and its offense is led by a future Hall of Famer, with another play caller joining Brian Daboll. It’s within the realm of possibility for the Giants to earn a win on the road against a team that’s faced slight turmoil during the off-season (Terry McLaurin contract situation, Brian Robinson trade). Still, as Burns and many other Giant veterans have stated throughout the offseason, nothing matters until they prove they can win.
