Selection Sunday is here, and later this evening we will find out where the North Carolina Tar Heels will land on the bracket. There was some optimism that making a deep run in the ACC Tournament would boost their chances at landing a higher seed, but after getting ran out of the building by Clemson, they may or may not have created a bit worse of a situation for themselves.
Regardless of what happened last week, the Heels will have to be ready to fight to keep their season alive and hopefully at minimum
make it to the second weekend of the tournament. Let’s take a look at a few storylines for Selection Sunday that could impact the Heels’ chances of making a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.
Will they be a 5 or 6 seed?
Bracketologists were pretty torn for a couple of weeks when it came to what kind of seeding UNC would earn. There were a number of experts that said that they could be a 5 seed, but there were also a handful that said they could end up a 6. At the time of writing, BracketMatrix.com has the Heels firmly as the second-best 6 seed behind Tennessee.
For those wondering if there’s a chance that they can move up to a five by the time the tournaments finish up, the answer is: probably not. Wisconsin, St. John’s, Texas Tech, and Arkansas are all projected 5 seeds, and all of those teams minus the Red Raiders had some big wins this weekend. Things feel like they are locked in place when it comes to the 5 and 6 seeds, so now it really comes down to which region the Heels end up in.
Who could be their opponent in the Round of 32?
Not to discount UNC’s first round opponent in the tournament, because we all know March Madness is very real, but their ability to make it to the second weekend of the tournament will largely depend on which team ends up the 3 seed in their region. Right now the projected 3 seeds are Illinois, Purdue, Gonzaga, and Nebraska. The interesting thing here is that three out of four teams are Big Ten teams, but their success levels have been pretty different. Remember when Purdue was the preseason No. 1 team in the country? Yeah, I almost forgot too.
Still, if fans are wondering who would be the easier draw of the four teams, it would either be Nebraska or Gonzaga. Illinois and Purdue rank #1 and #2 respectively in adjusted offense per KenPom.com, which to put that into perspective, Duke is currently #4. UNC could potentially deal with one of those two teams, but it really depends on which version of the Heels shows up. With the Bulldogs and the Cornhuskers, there’s a bit more margin for error. Gonzaga is 29th in adjusted offense and 9th in adjusted defense, while Nebraska is 55th and 7th in those categories. There is an optimal path for the Heels to get to at least the Sweet Sixteen, and if they do, that’s when things get really interesting should the 2 seed make it out of the first weekend as well.
Can the Heels avoid going out to the West Coast?
Many Carolina fans may remember that California did not treat UNC very well this season. In their road games against Cal and Stanford, the Heels played like they forgot what defense was, and two inferior teams were able to send them back to the East Coast wounded and embarrassed. Unfortunately, there is a chance that the Heels could end up playing in either Oregon or California, but how high those chances are is unclear.
What is clear is that should UNC end up far away from home, it could potentially create another bad situation. It’s bad enough that this team hasn’t been very good away from the Dean Smith Center — they are 2-2 in neutral site games, and 4-6 in road games. But being three hours behind Eastern Standard Time on top of it all could be asking for a quick exit unless Hubert Davis has figured out a better way to navigate such a situation. They’ll have to be prepared for anything, but seriously, do not send them out to California.
Overall, UNC’s path to the Final Four is really tough, and winning it all is even tougher. Vegas currently gives the Heels the 26th-best odds of winning the national championship per FanDuel Sportsbook. Still, crazier things have happened, right? Looking at you, 2024 NC State team.
The NCAA Tournament Selection show starts at 6 PM EST, and will be aired on CBS and Paramount +. You can also live stream the broadcast from the March Madness app.
