The Colts at the moment stand at 2-0 after their home victories vs the Dolphins and Broncos, while their AFC South rival Titans are at 0-2 after a loss by 8 points to the Broncos and a home loss to the Rams by 14 points. The Titans are attempting to rebuild after their 2024 season ended with them finishing 3-14 and earning the first overall pick to draft Miami’s Cam Ward as their new QB. The early results have been far from great so far.
Titans Stat Ranks VS Colts Stat Ranks
Offense
- Points Scored Per Game: 15.5 (30th) | 31 (4th)
- Yards Per Game: 192.5 (32nd) | 445.5 (2nd)
- Yards Per Play: 3.2 (32nd) | 6.5 (Tied 1st)
- 3rd Down Conversion Rate: 27.59% (31st) | 46.43% (Tied 6th)
- Red Zone TD Rate: 20% (30th) | 41.67% (26th)
- Turnovers Per Game: 1.5 (Tied 21st) | 0 (Tied 1st)
- Punts Per Game: 6.5 (32nd) | 0 (1st)
- EPA/Play: -0.34 (31st) | 0.19 (Tied 1st)
The Titans Offense has sputtered so far in 2025, suffering from
poor execution, penalties (11.5 penalties per game, most in the NFL), bad offensive line play, drops, and the inconsistencies of a young QB making his first NFL starts against two tough defenses.
They have been a bottom 3 Offense so far this season, scoring just 12 points against the Broncos (4 Field Goals) and 19 Points (4 Field Goals and a running crossbody TD throw by Ward) versus the Rams.
Passing Offense
- Pass Rate: 60.5% (13th) | 47.4% (30th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -4% (25th) | -4.3% (27th)
- Passing Yards Per Game: 102.5 (32nd) | 284 (Tied 2nd)
- Passing Yards Per Dropback: 2.8 (32nd) | 8.7 (1st)
- Play Action Rate: 18.1% (Tied 24th) | 38.5% (2nd)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 45.3% (31st) | 38% (Tied 18th)
- Time To Throw: 2.89 (Tied 21st) | 2.65 (Tied 7th)
- Yards After Catch: 153 (29th) | 261 (7th)
- EPA/Pass: -0.4 (31st) | +0.37 (1st)
The Titans Passing Offense has been pass heavy, albeit not by their own intention. Often forcing themselves into obvious passing situations, they still want to establish the run to ease the burden on their young QB and give Ward more Play Action to capitalize on Defenses’ hesitation.
The disfunction all starts at the trenches, where the Titans Offensive Line has made Ward the 3rd Most Pressured QB in the NFL behind Tyrod Taylor (11/16 Dropbacks for 68.8% Pressure Rate) and Joe Burrow (20/44 Dropbacks for 45.5% Pressure Rate) with his 34 Pressures on 75 Dropbackes for a 45.3% Pressure Rate. Guards Peter Skoronski and new vet addition Kevin Zeitler have been the bright spots, scoring a 76.8 and 62.2 Pass Pro Grade from PFF and allowing just 2 and 3 Pressures respectively.
But the other 3 spots with $82 million man Dan Moore Jr. (40.1 Pass Pro Grade), 2024 1st Round Pick JC Latham (41.3 Pass Pro Grade) and his backup John Ojukwu (47.3 Pass Pro Grade), and 5th highest paid Center Lloyd Cushenberry III (31.4 Pass Pro Grade) have not lived up to their investments. They’ve each surrendered 1-2 sacks and 3 of them have surrendered 5-6 Pressures, all while being penalized 7 times as well.
Cam Ward hasn’t had clean pockets to step into, forcing him to move around a lot more than he is supposed to. While he can drift in the pocket on his own sometimes, the pressures are more the fault of the linemen and their OL coach. Ward does deserve some blame and accountability for the sacks however, as he is the 4th highest pressure to sack% QB in the NFL at 32.4% while having the 8th slowest release speed at 2.98 seconds Time to Throw.
Ward has been trying to buy time to throw downfield, throwing at the 8th farthest average depth of throw (9.2) in the NFL, but it hasn’t worked out consistently with just 5/22 Passes beyond 10 yards completed (1 of 7 20+ yards). Ward wants to be an aggressive downfield playmaker, which is a tendency from throughout his collegiate career. But so far in the NFL it just hasn’t connected, either due to inaccuracy, lack of chemistry, poor communications with targets, or tough platforms to throw off of. Still the highlights do show some special playmaking ability as an improviser, but consistency is needed to look like a franchise QB.
The pass catchers haven’t helped Ward out either, with bottom 4 Yards After the Catch and the 2nd highest Drop Rate in the NFL (13.9%, behind only Trevor Lawrence’s 15.4%). Drops were a bigger issue Week 1 than they were Week 2, so there is hope that Ward and the Titans targets will get better at connecting over time. Rookie Wide Receiver Elic Ayomanor (13 targets, 6 catches, 69 yards, and a TD) and rookie Tight End Gunnar Helm (4 targets, 3 catches, 24 yards) are the two downfield targets with the highest passer rating when targeted on the team at 90.6 and 88.3 respectively (Tony Pollard is at 100 rating, albeit on just 2 targets).
Incumbent Wide Receiver 1 Calvin Ridley (14 targets, 7 receptions, 50 yards) and Tight End 1 Chigoziem Okonkwo (10 targets, 7 catches, 54 yards) haven’t had such good fortune when targeted. Free Agent addition Wide Receivers Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson haven’t gotten big roles yet with just 3 and 2 targets respectively as they’ve been only targeted on more shallow routes, but could see their roles expand later on. Lockett in particular has been known to be a strong downfield deep target in his career, which could be a good match with Ward’s passing diet.
Ward is by no means a bust after just 2 games and certainly has some high end traits that got him drafted in the top spot of the 2025 Draft. He can make high-end spectacular plays that not every QB can. But he needs to be able to take what the Defense gives him, reset his base properly when throwing under pressure, deliver an accurate ball, and avoid the pressure. Colts fans will see some parallels to former starting Colts QB Anthony Richardson in some of these tendencies and arm talent, just with much worse pocket maneuvering and little to no rushing threat thus far in his career. But Ward’s decision making and collegiate pedigree were more extensive coming out as he developed from Incarnate Word to Washington State to Miami.
Rushing Offense
- Rushing Yards Per Game: 90 (24th) | 161.5 (3rd)
- Rushing Yards Per Carry: 3.6 (23rd) | 4.5 (Tied 12th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Carry: 0.66 (26th) | 0.85 (23rd)
- Yards After Contact Per Carry: 3.17 (16th) | 3.63 (9th)
- Stuffed Rate: 8.5% (2nd) | 16.7% (Tied 13th)
- Success Rate: 40.4% (21st) | 47.2% (7th)
- Rushing Yards Over Expected Per Carry: -0.1 (Tied 19th) | 0.5 (Tied 10th)
- EPA/Run: -0.25 (32nd) | 0.04 (11th)
The Titans rushing attack has been a bit better than their aerial one thus far in 2025. Tyjae Spears has been on IR with a high ankle sprain, meaning he will miss at least the first 4 weeks of the season. So the Titans shifted from splitting the carry workload into giving Tony Pollard a bellcow role, giving him 38 of the teams 47 carries through two games (next closest Running Back is Julius Chestnut with 2 carries). Don’t expect that to change versus the Colts.
As maligned as the Titans line has been in pass blocking over the years, their run blocking is usually substantially better. That appears to be the case again, as the unit is arguably the worst in the NFL in pass blocking but 26th in yards before contact and 2nd in Stuffed Rate. While Pollard usually isn’t outright stuffed, he is responsible for picking up a solid 3.5 yards after contact which when compared to his 4 yards per carry shows how much he is responsible for their success on the ground.
The Titans love using Pollard on runs in between the tackles, doing so on 55.3% of his carries and gaining 102 of his 152 Rush Yards inside (4th most in the NFL) per Next Gen Stats. Rushing inside against the Colts Defensive Tackle duo of Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner is no easy feat, so the Titans might try to pivot a bit from their bread and butter and attack the Colts run Defense on the Edges.
Schematically the Titans run a mixed blocking scheme. They favor Zone blocking over gap slightly (21 zone to 18 gap designed run plays). Their left side blockers tend to do much better in zone concepts, left tackle Dan Moore Jr (83.9 Zone Block Grade vs 46.8 Gap Block Grade) and left guard Peter Skoronski (71.1 Zone Block Grade vs 63.4 Gap Block Grade) have considerable gaps between the two blocking schemes. But on the right side of the line both of the Titans Right Tackles JC Latham (71.5 Gap Block Grade to 58.2 Zone Block Grade) and John Ojukwu (64.9 Gap Block Grade to 52.8 Zone Block Grade) have favored Gap Blocking. Titans also have used blazing fast rookie Wide Receiver Chimere Dike on jet sweeps (3 for 18 yards), so the Colts will have to be mindful of him when he is in motion.
Defense
- Points Allowed Per Game: 26.5 (Tied 23rd) | 18 (11th)
- Yards Per Game Allowed: 378 (27th) | 267.5 (5th)
- Yards Per Play Allowed: 5.8 (24th) | 5.4 (Tied 20th)
- Takeaways Per Game: 2.5 (2nd) | 2 (Tied 3rd)
- EPA/Play Allowed: 0.01 (Tied 21st) | -0.07 (11th)
The Titans Defense is a bottom third unit in the NFL in most stat categories, with poor pressure, coverage lapses, and tackling issues plaguing the team. 2nd Year Defensive Coordinator Dennard Wilson brings a Defensive Back coaching background and most recently coached for the Eagles and the Ravens prior to joining the Titans staff. His philosophy is a high blitz percentage and aggressive defense. They are Tied 16th in Man Coverage Rate with the Colts, but play slightly less Cover 2 (21%) and Cover 3 (31%) and opt for a bit more quarters coverage (16%) than the Colts so far in 2025.
While the Defense hasn’t been great at stopping opposing offenses from driving down the field and scoring, they have been opportunistic. They capitalized on Bo Nix’s mistakes Week 1, getting 2 picks and forcing a fumble on him, and got another pick and fumble on Matthew Stafford last week ranking as one of the best teams at takeaways through the first 2 weeks. Daniel Jones will need to be wary of the ball skills of the Titans Defenders to avoid making his first turnover of the season.
Passing Defense
- Passing Yards Per Game Allowed: 228 (20th) | 169.5 (7th)
- Passing Yards Per Dropback Allowed: 6.1 (Tied 18th) | 5.3 (Tied 9th)
- Pressure Rate: 26% (27th) | 20.6% (32nd)
- Blitz Rate: 24.7% (19th) | 26.5% (15th)
- Time To Throw Allowed: 2.76 (13th) | 2.61 (4th)
- Yards After Catch Allowed: 235 (20th) | 215 (16th)
- EPA/Pass Allowed: -0.06 (14th) | -0.19 (7th)
The Titans Defense has not gotten a consistent pass rush out of their line, and have tried to get pressure via blitz at a decent rate. The secondary is home to several talented players like Safeties Amani Hooker, Xavier Woods, and Quandre Diggs along with nickel corner Roger McCreary.
The outside Corners have struggled, with top Corner L’Jarius Sneed regressed from his Chiefs days over the last two years and Jarvis Brownlee flashing at times, but being inconsistent, especially after his strong first few games as a rookie in 2024. The depth corners might be familiar names, as former Colts Darrell Baker Jr. and Samuel Womack III were picked up by the Colts division rivals.
The outside Corners aren’t the only exploitable matchup for the Colts to take advantage of in coverage, as the Titans Linebackers Cody Barton and Cedric Gray have had quiet seasons so far in the middle of the defense. Expect Tyler Warren to take advantage of that matchup in the passing game.
The Titans pass defense despite it’s flaw remains in middle tier of the NFL, thanks to its turnovers generated and crafty play designs and disguises from Dennard Wilson. The Colts should have the advantage with Daniel Jones’ breakout this season while throwing to Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce, AD Mitchell, and Jonathan Taylor providing strong results versus both Miami and the vaunted Broncos defenses; especially if the Titans struggle to get pressure on him.
Rushing Defense
- Rushing Yards Per Game Allowed: 150 (29th) | 98 (12th)
- Rushing Yards Per Carry Allowed: 5.5 (30th) | 5.4 (29th)
- Stacked Boxes Rate: 38.2% (4th) | 16.7% (Tied 20th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Carry Allowed: 0.64 (7th) | 1.79 (28th)
- Yards After Contact Per Carry Allowed: 4.96 (32nd) | 3.66 (23rd)
- Stuffed Rate: 10.9% (31st) | 19.4% (10th)
- Rushing Yards Over Expected Per Carry Allowed: 2.46 (32nd) | 0.07 (15th)
- EPA/Run Allowed: 0.1 (24th) | 0.13 (Tied 28th)
The true Achilles heel of the Titans defense has been defending the run. Despite trying to stack boxes at a very high rate to prevent opposing rushers from breaking lose, the Titans are one of the worst Defenses in the NFL vs the run. Missed tackles have been a big issue, with 10 so far in 2025. The Titans don’t stuff runs, but they do good job at attacking gaps to meet runners with their loaded boxes. But then the sloppy tackling and bad angles show up, as they have allowed more Yards After Contact and Rush Yards Over Expected than any other unit in the NFL.
The Titans did a solid job at containing RB1s in their first two matchups, as both JK Dobbins and Kyren Williams were held to just 3.9 yards per carry each. But when the fresh legs of their backups came in or the Broncos/Rams used their Wide Receivers on sweeps, then the Titans Run Defense truly broke each week. Broncos Rookie RJ Harvey tore the Titans up with 6 carries for 70 yards, including a huge 50 yard run. 2nd year Rams RB Blake Corum ran for 44 yards on just 5 carries, and Puka Nacua took a 45 yard sweep to the house in Week 2. This could bode very well for Tyler Goodson if he makes his season debut, as well as rookie running back DJ Giddens. Both provide significant burst and speed in their runs, which if the Titans Defense gets tired trying to bring down Jonathan Taylor, could be used for some big runs. Fans could even see Josh Downs or AD Mitchell get a Jet Sweep or two to test the Titans Defense once again on the edge.
Stacking the box and keeping a light box are not good strategies for the Titans Defense so far in 2025. When the Titans Stack the Box (Over 7 Defenders, 38.2% of their Defensive snaps), they do reduce opposing Yards per carry to 4, but that is 4th worst in the NFL. But when the Titans have a light box (6 or less defenders, 25.5% of their Defensive snaps), the results have been disastrous, allowing an NFL worst 11.5 Yards Per Carry. The Titans need bodies to plug up gaps or they suffer due to their poor open field tackling, so spreading them out to prevent 7 or more players in the box will likely be a staple of the Colts attack.
With Jonathan Taylor receiving the lionshare of carries in the Colts backfield and the Colts boasting a strong run blocking unit (not just a stout line, but at Tight End and Wide Receiver as well), this looks to be quite the mismatch. Taylor is 3rd in Missed Tackles Forced in the NFL and Yards After Contact per Carry (minimum 15 Carries), so his speed, power, vision, elusiveness, and acceleration will be a tall task to stop for this Titans Defense. They are left with quite a conundrum: commit significant resources in trying to stop the run consistently, or risk the Daniel Jones led passing attack throwing over them for big gains.
Could this be a Potential Blowout?
The stats seem to indicate the Colts should win this game comfortably. The Colts have the advantage in 33 of the 38 performance (not tendency) stats listed above, sometimes by wide margins. The Titans last beat the Colts in 2022, but in each of their 4 straight losses the Titans lost by only 1 score. Titans are very familiar with the Colts scheme and players, and that could prove crucial for them to keep the game close. The betting line favors the Colts by 3.5 to 4.5 points on the road, so even when factoring the home team getting 3 extra points on the spread, it appears Vegas believes in the Titans ability to at least keep the game to 1 score yet again.
The matchup in Nashville has the makings of a trap game, with a matchup versus the more talented Rams on the horizon in Week 4. The Rams have won 9 of their last 11 games played, with the only team to beat them in that span being the 2024 Super Bowl winning Philadelphia Eagles (a 17 point loss in the regular season and a 6 point loss in the playoffs last year), who just so happen to be the Rams next opponent prior to the Colts. The Colts can’t afford to look ahead to the Rams and mentally prepare for them early, their division rivals deserve enough respect with their ability to fight for close games that the Colts should be on guard. An upset loss to a divisional rival could be a tough momentum shift for the Colts season, and could be a factor in later season tiebreakers if the Colts hope to make the playoffs.
Still, Colts should win in Week 3 with their advantageous matchups on both sides. Just mentally prepare for a closer game than expected, and be pleasantly surprised if the Colts do put away their division rival handedly. The Colts last beat the Titans by more than 1 score in 2020, and if they buck that historic trend it would keep morale high for the start of the season, both for fans and players.
