The big win at Cremonese might have exorcised some demons but if you think Fiorentina isn’t still possessed by the same malign forces that have seized its body and mind all season, this game ought to disabuse you of that notion very quickly. Fiorentina holds the slimmest of margins over Raków Częstochowa in the Conference League round of 16, having slipped past the Medaliki 2-1 in the first leg last week. Paolo Vanoli and company have plenty of experience playing in Poland, of course, but this still promises
to be tricky under the best of circumstances. Also, Fiorentina never operates under the best of circumstances.
The match will be played on Thursday, 19 March 2026, at 15:45 GMT/12:45 PM EST at the zondocrypto Arena (no seriously that is its name) in Częstochowa, the 13th-largest city in Poland. The forecast calls for a crisp, nippy spring day. Even though this could be the final away day for the Viola fans, don’t expect a lot of traveling support for the 1270 km/790 mi journey. The home fans, on the other hand, are likely to be more than up for it. Expect an intimidating atmosphere with tifos, flares, and all the other standards of a European away day.
Three things to watch for
1. Squad rotation
Vanoli has made it abundantly clear that the cup competitions are a chance for the backups to get some burn. He’s held out as many of the starters as possible from the Coppa Italia and Conference League games since taking the reins in Florence and I doubt that’ll change here. For one thing, the Serie A relegation race remains Priorities 1 through x+1 for this team. For another, it’s important for the mister to reward the players who’ve gotten to this point with a chance to see it through.
There are, of course, complications. Moise Kean is back from injury but Vanoli didn’t risk him against Cremonese on Monday. I think Roberto Piccoli will get another start but the Moose will get a significant number of minutes off the bench to ensure he’s closer to full fitness for the Serie A run-in. Manor Solomon won’t return before the international break so Jacopo Fazzini, Fabiano Parisi, Jack Harrison, and Albert Guðmundsson are the wide attacking options. My money’s on Fazzini and Harrison starting, although Fabi might not play the whole game if Robin Gosens is limited following a brutal collision with the post against the Grigiorossi.
I don’t think Vanoli will go too crazy here. The usual backups will step in: Oliver Christensen, Pietro Comuzzo, and Giovanni Fabbian. Niccolò Fortini might get a chance as well although he’s carrying an ankle injury and might not be ready. I’d guess that Rolando Mandragora will start—Vanoli subbed him off relatively early to keep him fresh—with Cher Ndour and Fabbian in the middle. I doubt we’ll see the Primavera guys like Eddy Kouadio and Riccardo Braschi for anything more than a brief cameo if the result’s well in hand. There could be some tired legs, both on Thursday and on Sunday against Inter Milan.
2. Absorbing pressure
Raków’s form has taken a dip of late, with the loss in Florence followed by a 3-1 defeat at Górnik Zabrze on Sunday that knocked Łukasz Tomczyk’s boys out of the European places. I expect that there’s a bit of anxiety in Częstochowa about the downturn since Tomczyk took over: in his 9 games in charge, he’s gone just W3 D2 L4 across all competitions, and he took some risks at the weekend, fielding a number of reserves in hopes of resting some legs and getting a result against Fiorentina.
Those nerves, combined with what will probably be a stupendous atmosphere, mean that Raków is going to play with a lot of intensity and energy from the word go, especially since it’s chasing a goal. Expect a high line of engagement and an emphasis on winning the ball in the final third. If you’re a Fiorentina fan, that’s basically a death sentence. We’ve seen the Viola wilt time and again in those circumstances as the players’ focus flickers out, resulting in disastrous errors.
If (and it’s a significant if) the visitors can weather the early storm, though, spaces will open up on the break as the hosts grow increasingly desperate to get a goal and throw more bodies into the box. Vanoli and company are aware of that, of course, and my guess is that they’ll play it as safe as possible in the first half, hoping to sit deep and let Raków exhaust itself physically and emotionally. If the brilliant counterattacking combinations we saw against Cremonese are any indication, the second half could provide some fireworks, especially if Kean gets a chance. This is all predicated on avoiding costly errors early on but I think this sets up decently for the Viola if they don’t panic.
3. Defending from the front
It’s a little silly to highlight the necessity of a deep block and then immediately talk about the striker’s out of possession work but bear with me. Cremonese briefly gained the upper hand on Sunday in the second half because Piccoli stopped pressing high up, allowing the Grigiorossi a platform to get forward. Sebastiano Luperto played in a couple of very good crosses and Federico Ceccherini assisted the equalizer; it’s no coincidence that those outside centerbacks became the key figures in attack. Fiorentina’s wingers dropped in, leaving the striker to cut off the supply. Piccoli didn’t and Cremonese began an aerial bombardment that might have turned the game around for a better team.
While Raków doesn’t have a target like Milan Ðurić up front, its primary form of attack is creating wide overloads against an unsettled defense. I expect outside centerbacks Bogdan Racovițan and especially Fran Tudor (a converted midfielder) to push high up to pin the Viola deep while overloading the wings. That will require awareness and discipline from the wingers to defend. I don’t think it’ll be Gasperini or Inter levels of defenders raiding into the box but if Fiorentina’s fullbacks, wingers, and midfielders aren’t connected out of possession, they’ll cede crossing opportunities. That’s bad news for a team that is very bad at defending crosses, particularly high ones.
The striker will thus have to funnel the ball one way and prevent Raków from recycling around the back too easily. That responsibility, of course, means opportunity going the other way: there should be chances for Piccoli/Kean to attack 1-v-1 at transitions and both are physically good enough to wreak havoc in those situations. Without pressure, though, Raków won’t lose the ball in positions for the midfielders to play those long balls over the top, so it’s up to the striker to set the tone in order to maximize his chances of scoring.
Possible lineups
Share My Tactics" data-portal-copyright="Made using Share My Tactics" />
Ted’s Memorial Blind Guess Department
The bookies have nearly evened the odds on this one and I’m in full agreement: The quest stands on the point of a knife; stray but a little and it will fail, to the ruin of all. Raków’s looked a little ropy but has demonstrated a strong home advantage this season as well as a very good record in the Conference League. Fiorentina’s wobbly as wobbly can be but this sets up perfectly for the classic European smash-and-grab, especially as Vanoli seems to have steadied the ship for what feels like the umpteenth time this season.
I’ll back the visitors for a 1-2 win that just about gives everyone watching a heart attack. Raków will come out firing on all cylinders and Fiorentina will only barely hang on for the opening minutes but will eventually find a bit of rhythm and get a purchase in the game, grabbing one on the break through Fabbian before the break. Now facing a 2-goal deficit, the hosts will throw everything forward and pull one back via a penalty following a meatwall set piece before Kean vaporizes a defender and bangs in a winner to settle it late. I’m also expecting a pretty robust affair with at least 4 bookings, including one for Vanoli, and a lot more fouls than anyone wants.
Forza Viola!
