You know the Green Bay Packers will be favored in their Week 9 game against the Carolina Panthers. Green Bay is 5-1-1, coming off a huge, emotional victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, and is playing
at home. The Panthers just got drubbed 40-9 by the Buffalo Bills and may be starting Andy Dalton at quarterback when they come to Lambeau Field next Sunday.
So the only question is this: By how much will the Packers be favored?
Unsurprisingly, the short answer is “a lot.” According to FanDuel sportsbook, the Packers are currently listed as 12.5-point favorites over Carolina this week, which would be their second-highest spread as a favorite this season. Green Bay was previously favored by 14 points in their game against the Cincinnati Bengals, a game that they won by 9 points.
The Packers’ 35-25 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers was their first cover since week two, however. Green Bay finished the week as three-point favorites for the Sunday Night Football matchup, and their impressive second half performance gave them a ten-point victory to push them to 3-4 against the spread on the season. Of course, the Packers are only concerned about their actual record, which remains the best in the NFC coming out of week 8.
With such a large spread, the oddsmakers seem to be expecting the Packers’ defense to minimize the Panthers’ offensive production, given the low over/under on total points. The current number there is set at 43.5, and combined with the spread that suggests an expectation of a 28-15.5 Packers win. Even reaching 14 points has been a struggle for Carolina this year, however; they have been held under that number in 4 of their 8 games so far, including each of the last two weeks, and overall the team ranks 27th in the NFL in points scored.
Look for the Packers’ defense to try to tee off on whoever starts at quarterback for the Panthers. Bryce Young missed the Panthers’ loss to Buffalo with an injury, and Dalton took seven sacks in the blowout loss. Young’s sack rate has steadily declined in his three years in the NFL, but this could still be a juicy matchup for a Packers offensive line that has recorded 9 sacks in the last two games.
The last time these two teams met was on Christmas Eve in 2023, a game that would prove to be one of the last straws for Joe Barry as Packers defensive coordinator. Green Bay held on for a 33-30 victory, but Young — who had been struggling mightily all season long — led a furious fourth-quarter comeback and tied the game before the Packers kicked a go-ahead field goal with just seconds remaining. Carolina covered the spread in that contest, which had the Packers favored by four points.
