The St. Louis Cardinals surpassed expectations for the first third of the season but things have gone back towards that low baseline in recent weeks. With minimal support brought in to help a makeshift starting rotation, it should not be surprise that the holdovers from the previous season have been pretty much as anticipated. Outside of Dustin May, the rest of the staff has been passable at best but are becoming a cause for concern in the unexpected competitive season in St. Louis.
In this fact-finding
season, a rotation overhaul is unlikely outside of a May trade, but there are plenty of arms deserving of a look at the major league level so they can start to find their place within the organization’s future plans. This means that pitchers like Kyle Leahy and Matthew Liberatore may have a leash with no end in sight as the Cardinals try to make it through the dog days of the season. In a different season, their stay in the rotation could be numbered, but the current Cardinal team is in no rush to make major changes with the short-term in mind.
Cardinals can turn to Brycen Mautz and Quinn Mathews to support the struggling rotation
Through the Memorial Day checkpoint the Cardinals were sitting seven games over .500 and doing it with a starting rotation that measured as 27th-best in the league by FanGraphs fWAR. It never truly felt that bad though, especially because the offense checked in at 6th-best, scoring 4.57 runs per game to narrowly outpace the 4.55 runs per game given up by the pitchers. In recent weeks, the rotation has failed to provide both quantity and quality innings, causing a renewed call for Leahy and Liberatore to be removed from the rotation and support the also struggling bullpen.
This year, Leahy was given the Liberatore treatment and I go back and forth to how long it is going to last. He is older than Libby without the prospect pedigree, so a season-long leash may not be in the cards if Leahy is unable to work deeper into the game. In order for him to be removed from the starting five, there will have to be someone knocking on the door for a consistent run as a starter. As of today, I believe that the biggest rotation turnover will still come in the form of a May trade, meaning there may only be one spot like that open for the season.
As a Tommy John survivor, I wish continued health to the pitching staff, but an injury could also create an audition spot for a minor league arm to stake a claim to next year’s rotation. If and when May is traded, the likeliest option to slot right into his spot is Hunter Dobbins, who has had some success over a couple major league cameos this season. That move would of course keep Libby and Leahy both in the rotation, but if either of the two is demoted to the relief corps, Brycen Mautz and Quinn Mathews should begin their showcase for 2027.
While Mautz could get the first shake, he has struggled with his command in his last few starts, walking 16 batters in 18.1 innings since being sent back down after his debut. Because he is stretched out and may profile as a reliever in the long-term, I would rather Mautz fill the hole left by a JoJo Romero trade or a Justin Bruihl transaction. Mautz could be used in different situations out of the pen this year and then focus on the rotation again in the offseason.
This leaves my choice for a half-year showcase to be Quinn Mathews. After winning the organization’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year award in 2024, the lefty looked to be on a fast track to the majors after pitching at all four levels that season. Mathews ran into trouble with his command and shoulder last season and took a step back in the prospect rankings after seeing his walk rate more than double. He was still able to limit the overall damage as opposing hitters hit .218 against Mathews, allowing him to finish with an ERA under four on the year.
If you have been reading my last couple articles, I point to the Rule 5 protection being a major talking point for multiple pitchers at the upper level of the minors. Mathews is not exception as he will need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason and that is a foregone conclusion to happen if he does not make it to the majors this year. Service time and MLB salary be darned in my opinion and at the first chance of an extended major league look, Mathews should be near the top of the list to be promoted. Even if his command and consistency falter to a point, giving him a longer run (if the season is lost) could be better for his development rather than continuing to strikeout Triple-A hitters.
I have had this view on Cardinal pitching prospects for a bit now as I want pitchers to use their bullets at the major league level, especially with the rate that the minor league staff has been hit with injuries. If a pitcher is “close” like Mathews is, really just needing to refine his command, the major league coaching staff should have their eyes on him daily so they can work to develop him best to the major league game. That is why I am also against short stints in the bigs for prospects, because that leaves little time for them to learn and adjust to the next level and has to be difficult both physically and mentally.
If the Cardinals continue to compete this year, the minor league trio mentioned could still theoretically provide a prospect boost to the team but would be tough to count on in October. I am room temperature on adding to the rotation at the deadline, depending on who is brought in and what prospect capital is sent out. As a fan, I want the team to win and I would attempt to get to Busch Stadium for a playoff game, but I still think this team is a year or two ahead of schedule and standing pat outside of quickly expiring asset deals is the best course of option this year.
