We’re all in various stages of grief right now over the loss of pass rusher Micah Parsons, so I want to open up debate about what the rest of the season looks like for you. I’ve accepted that the Green Bay Packers’ 2025 season hasn’t gone as planned. With tight end Tucker Kraft, center Elgton Jenkins, Parsons and defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt now finishing the year on the injured reserve, I just don’t think there’s enough left in the tank for the Packers to pull off four extra playoff victories
at the end of the season, assuming that they’ll make the postseason.
Maybe you feel different than me, though. If you do, I don’t want to rob you of the importance of the ending of the season. What I do what to do, though, is look at where the Packers fall in the Super Bowl pecking order, either via a simulation or some sort of market. So let’s take a peek at what people think of Green Bay today.
New York Times/The Athletic
- Los Angeles Rams: 19%
- Denver Broncos: 15%
- Seattle Seahawks: 12%
- Buffalo Bills: 8%
- New England Patriots: 7%
- Philadelphia Eagles, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans: 6%
- San Francisco 49ers: 5%
- Green Bay Packers: 4%
Nine teams are ranked ahead of the Packers in the New York Times/The Athletic’s playoff simulations. Four of those teams are NFC teams, with the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers basically having the same opportunity as the Packers. Far in the lead in the conference, though, are the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks.
FanDuel
- Los Angeles Rams: +350
- Seattle Seahawks: +700
- Buffalo Bills: +850
- Denver Broncos: +900
- Philadelphia Eagles: +1000
- Green Bay Packers: +1200 (implied probability: 7.7%)
The first book we’ll be looking at is a bit kinder to the Packers, giving them a 7.7% implied probability of making the Super Bowl, about twice the rate of NYT/The Athletic’s simulations. Again, the Eagles have basically the same opportunity as the Packers, but the Rams and Seahawks lead the league.
DraftKings
- Los Angeles Rams: +320
- Seattle Seahawks: +650
- Denver Broncos, Buffalo Bills: +800
- Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans: +1100
- New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers: +1500 (implied probability 6.3%)
The same is true for our second book, as far as the Rams and Seahawks go. Interestingly, neither of these books put the 49ers over the Packers, unlike NYT/The Athletic’s simulations.
Kalshi
- Los Angeles Rams: 22%
- Seattle Seahawks: 12%
- Buffalo Bills, Denver Broncos: 11%
- Philadelphia Eagles: 9%
- New England Patriots: 8%
- Houston Texans: 7%
- San Francisco 49ers: 5%
- Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars, Green Bay Packers: 4%
The final datapoint we’ll look at is a “prediction market” (it’s a book). This looks more like the NYT/The Athletic simulation, placing the Packers in fifth place in the NFC and having them in a three-way tie for ninth place in the NFL. Notably, Green Bay will be playing the 7-7 Baltimore Ravens, who also have a 4% Super Bowl percentage on Kalshi, next week, after the Packers go to Chicago to play the Bears.
Speaking of the Bears…no one seems to think that they have a better chance to win it all than the Packers. It’s basically a coin flip right now between which one of those programs will end up winning the NFC North, so that’s interesting.
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So, the general consensus seems to be that the Packers are somewhere between the 6th and 11th in the pecking order for a Lombardi Trophy. The big problem, as I see it, is that Green Bay will likely have to go through either the Los Angeles Rams or Seattle Seahawks, whichever wins the NFC West, in the divisional round, if they do survive Wild Card Weekend.
Any given Sunday and all that. We just saw Philip Rivers take the Seahawks to the wire after five years of not playing the sport, but I just wouldn’t bet on a beat-up Packers team going the distance this winter.
But let’s hear you.
