Reality isn’t that the Texans are 2-5, that Stroud is deserving of a mega contract, or that the offensive line hasn’t materially improved in a decade of reconstruction. Houston has already lost as many games this year as all of last season. This season is oddly reminiscent of the 2013 and especially the 2020 campaigns where the Texans came off of historic years and completely floundered under the spotlight.
The reality is that this roster isn’t good. The Giants proved that.
Houston is 2-5 and with
an 8% chance to make the playoffs according to New York Time’s simulator. The remaining schedule offers little room for opportunity to make it back into playoff contention.
Houston Texans remaining schedule
- At Los Angeles Chargers (0-6)
- At Cleveland Browns (5-2)
- Vs Indianapolis Colts (2-5)
- Vs Baltimore Ravens (4-3)
- At Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)
- At Washington Commanders (1-4-1)
- Vs Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2)
- At Philadelphia Eagles (2-5)
- At Green Bay Packers (4-3)
- Vs Tennessee Titans (1-6)
Houston only plays five team with losing records, which includes the Eagles who are a sleeping giant. The loss against the Giants was a critical blow to their chances. At 3-4, they would have been squarely in the Wild Card race with three winnable games in a row after the bye week. Now, they are still being asked to dig out of a trench that’s far too deep.
So, with little to no chance to win the division, let alone make the playoffs, Houston is in a horrible spot. What’s worse is the Texans are ALREADY $33.8M over their 2027 salary cap. They are going to have to make aggressive cuts to this already weak roster. Plus, they won’t have a second round pick due to the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade.
This article and my thoughts specifically aren’t around tanking. Tanking is only for teams with draft assets that need complete, multi-position overhauls. That isn’t the Texans. Besides, there are at least four teams (Tennessee, Miami, Los Angeles, Arizona, and Washington who are capable of out-tanking Houston. Coming in at least sixth in the draft is not a worthy proposition to tank for.
The defense must evolve because the equation to beat the Texans has gotten simple. Chip the Texans defensive ends as much as possible, then beat them down the sidelines on deep balls. Keep away from the middle where they will hit you and flood the defense with options to make them play one-on-one. The Texans secondary in a tricky spot where when they play soft coverage they are beaten underneath, but when they press and get physical they are beaten down the field. They can’t generate pass rush in the interior and even worse can’t stop the run to save their lives. It’s a crumbling system built off of talent alone, but when the entire league has the same playbook, talent won’t win the day.
Houston moved to a five-man front often against the Giants. It moved rookie Kaydem McDonald back to his normal nose tackle position and took the pressure off of Tommy Togiai, who has wildly under-performed against the run. While this paid off early, it limits Houston’s versatility in the secondary. More bodies up front means less players to cover and JJ McCarthy put that together quite quickly on Sunday.
The issues Houston is facing are directly related to mistakes made this offseason. The two second round picks rarely see the field or even suit up on game day. The two marquee offensive lineman from free agency Wyatt Teller and Braden Smith play as much football as you or I do. Reed Blankenship is verging on Ed Reed territory of historic free agent busts. David Montgomery is injured and confirmed cannot run through a wall.
The house that Nick Caserio build is all crashing down in real time.
The Marvin Harrison move, while instantly productive, was a hasty decision made of good intentions but poor long-term planning. Tank Dell is back and looks strong. The other WRs are now playing well. Did Houston need a WR more than a top-end defensive tackle? Houston’s future assets could have been much better utilized than a semi-capable receiver with only one more full season on his contract.
The problems are real and will not be solved in one bye week. With a difficult schedule and AFC with nine teams over .500, there’s little to no-chance Houston can turn this horrific start into another miracle run.
With nowhere up to go and nowhere down to move, the only place to go is young. Get valuable reps for Marlin Klein. See how Kamari Ramsey does at safety and Jaylin Smith at corner. Run Wade Woodaz instead of Jake Hansen.
Most importantly, I don’t think firing Nick Caserio nor DeMeco Ryans is the right decision. The braintrust did get us in this position, but we are only here because of them. Caserio is one of the most dynamic GMs in the league and outside of the offensive line and safeties is a quality evaluator of talent.
