Let’s take a look at what the national analysts think about the 3-2 Green Bay Packers after their back-to-back wins over the last two weeks, along with a peek at the current NFC standings. Yes, it’s still way too early in the year to start calculating exact playoff scenarios, but it’s worth mentioning how the NFC is playing out, as the narrative you’re going to want to pay attention to this year is already developing.
Packers Power Rankings
- Pro Football Talk: #11
- Bleacher Report: #12
- Sports Illustrated: #12
- The Athletic: #14
- CBS Sports: #14
- ESPN: #14
- NFL.com: #16
- SB Nation – Bleeding Green Nation: #18
- Sharp Football Analysis: #18
- Yahoo! Sports: #18
- The Score: #19
- USA Today: #19
- FOX Sports: #22
The Packers have dug themselves out of the bottom-10 conversation, which is where
most analysts had them after their Thursday Night Football loss to the Atlanta Falcons that dropped Green Bay to 1-2. FOX Sports was by far the lowest on the Packers, and they had the following to say:
The Packers’ blowout win over the Bears was certainly out of nowhere, and probably some sweet revenge for Matt LaFleur’s team. It was the first sign of life from their offense since opening weekend, which is really odd since QB Jordan Love has been playing well, and they really do have good receivers.
The Packers still can’t really run the ball, and that’s going to hold them back. But Love and an improving defense have been enough to get them to 3-2. It doesn’t look pretty, but they have a chance to stay on their offensive roll with the Cowboys, Lions and Panthers up next.
Some fair analysis, for the most part. If the passing game caught someone by surprise, though, I’m not sure what games they were watching this year. The line has been steady over the last two weeks, and the issue has always been what happens before the ball is thrown, not after.
Pro Football Talk had the biggest leap for the Packers this week, as Mike Florio had Green Bay jumping from #23 to #11.
When your adversary keeps talking, stay quiet and wait for your opportunity.
NFC Playoff Picture
- Minnesota Vikings (5-0, NFC North)
- San Francisco 49ers (5-0, NFC West)
- New York Giants (3-1-1, NFC East)
- Carolina Panthers (2-2, NFC South)
- Green Bay Packers (3-2)
- Detroit Lions (3-2)
- Chicago Bears (3-2)
- Seattle Seahawks (3-2)
- Los Angeles Rams (2-3)
- Atlanta Falcons (2-3)
- Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)
- Dallas Cowboys (2-3)
- Washington Commanders (1-3-1)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4)
- New Orleans Saints (1-4)
- Arizona Cardinals (1-4)
This is the current playoff picture. Yes, the Packers are the top seed in the wild card right now, but the fifth through eighth seeds are all tied at 3-2, and the Los Angeles Rams are hoping to hawk everyone down at 2-3 in the ninth spot. Green Bay doesn’t control their own destiny, as even if the team wins out and the Minnesota Vikings win out other than a Packers loss, the Vikings will still be seeded over Green Bay.
In short, we’re rooting for Minnesota losses (as if we weren’t already).
Below are the Packers’ chances at individual seeds in the playoffs, according to The Athletic.
- 2%
- 6%
- 2%
- <1%
- 6%
- 10%
- 12%
Overall, they have a 38 percent chance to make the postseason, per The Athletic’s numbers, and an 11 percent chance to win the NFC North, both the lowest rates among the NFC North teams. In more than half (58 percent) of The Athletic’s simulations, when the Packers make the playoffs for the 2026 season, they’re one of the last two seeds in the NFC.
Below are the full NFL playoff percentages for all 16 teams in the conference, per The Athletic:
- 95%: San Francisco 49ers
- 77%: Minnesota Vikings
- 71%: Seattle Seahawks
- 69%: Los Angeles Rams
- 63%: Detroit Lions
- 56%: Chicago Bears
- 51%: Carolina Panthers
- 44%: Atlanta Falcons
- 40%: Dallas Cowboys
- 38%: Green Bay Packers
- 30%: Philadelphia Eagles
- 28%: New York Giants
- 17%: Washington Commanders
- 12%: New Orleans Saints
- 9%: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- <1%: Arizona Cardinals
More interesting to me, from a narrative standpoint, is what the wildcard looks like, since roughly three-quarters of The Athletic’s simulations feature a playoff Packers team making it via the wildcard. You’ll see some common themes from years past.
- 55%: Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams
- 37%: Chicago Bears
- 35%: Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions
- 27%: Green Bay Packers
- 25%: San Francisco 49ers
- 8%: Atlanta Falcons
- 5%: Dallas Cowboys and Carolina Panthers
- 4%: New York Giants
- 3%: Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders
- 2%: New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- <0%: Arizona Cardinals
- BYES: Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings
Only about one-third of the way into the season, there’s already about a 70 percent chance that all three NFC wildcard spots will come down to teams from the North and West, even when simulated head-to-head games are taken into account. For years, the NFC East and NFC South have dragged behind the North and West, and this season hasn’t changed that outlook.
Both divisions should be absolute dogfights in the final two-thirds of the 2026 season. Two teams will get in as division winners, and there will be five others fighting for three spots. Right now, the NFC West #2 and #3 seeds are just on the outside looking in, hoping for one of the four NFC North teams — which would all advance to the postseason if the season ended today — to start to slip.
For fun, I took a look at playoff leverage for NFC teams’ Week 6 games (the difference between their playoff percentage with a win compared to a loss) via The Athletic’s simulator. Here’s what that looks like:
- 21%: Packers vs. DAL (48% with a win, 27% with a loss)
- 21%: Bears @ ATL (67%, 46%)
- 21%: Rams vs ARZ (74%, 53%)
- 20%: Cowboys @ GB (50%, 30%)
- 20%: Falcons vs CHI (54%, 34%)
- 17%: Giants vs NYG (37%, 20%)
- 17%: Panthers @ PHI (60%, 43%)
- 16%: Eagles vs CAR (38%, 22%)
- 16%: Seahawks @ DEN (78%, 62%)
- 14%: Commanders @ SF (26%, 12%)
- 8%: Saints @ NYG (16%, 8%)
- 7%: Buccaneers vs PIT (12%, 5%)
- 6%: 49ers vs WAS (97%, 91%)
- 3%: Cardinals @ LAR (3%, <1%)
So while a Week 6 game might not seem like it has huge stakes, The Athletic’s simulator says the Packers’ chances of making the postseason nearly double if they come out of this game with a win (48 percent) compared to a loss (27 percent). They are tied for being in the most high-leverage situation in the NFC this week, along with the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams. The Rams, though, have the benefit of being a nearly two-touchdown favorite against a tanking Arizona Cardinals team, compared to the Packers and Bears playing in games that are more or less toss-ups.
A best-case scenario for Green Bay this week probably involves:
- The Packers winning (obviously)
- The Seahawks losing to the Broncos
- The Rams losing to the Cardinals
- The Bears losing to the Falcons
If that scenario plays out, the Packers will have a 52 percent chance to make the playoffs, even with the Lions and Vikings on a BYE, per The Athletic’s simulator. If the opposite results play out in those four games, Green Bay’s chances drop to 25 percent.
