Zach Carey
Okay folks – it’s that magical time of year again. March Madness is upon us! And, for the first time in two years, the Virginia Cavaliers are a part of it.
This has been a resoundingly successful year for Ryan Odom in his first season leading the ‘Hoos. Any sane Wahoo fan would’ve signed up for a 29-5 record, a second place ACC finish, an ACC Championship appearance, and a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
But, what does success look like for this team in March? Is winning the program’s first NCAA
Tournament game since 2019 enough? Do the ‘Hoos have to make the second weekend? Is the Elite Eight a must? Are you crazy enough to say Final Four or bust? Or are you entirely satisfied with this season and would be happy no matter the result on Friday?
Trey Kelleher
This season is a success, one that doesn’t turn into a failure with a loss on Friday. Would I be happy with that result? No, but a 27-4 regular season, 15-3 ACC regular season and an ACC Tournament Finals appearance are all great accomplishments, especially for this regimes first year.
Tournament success would look like a Sweet Sixteen appearance to me, although I know this team is capable of even more than that.
Daniel Siegel
I’m going to agree with you for the most part, Trey, but there one key difference in my line of thinking. The way I see it, the only way that this season could turn into a failure is a loss to 14-seeded Wright State on Friday.
The post championship Virginia basketball era has seen plenty of sustained success in the ACC realm, but multiple first round heartbreakers as well. The bare minimum for Odom’s team is to give fans that taste of a March Madness victory that they’ve been salivating over for seven years now. I would have felt this way even if the ‘Hoos were in a 7 v 10 game.
Beyond the Round of 64, any result would be reasonable. At that point, we strike the balance between realizing this team’s high potential and acknowledging the optimistic outlook of Odom’s tenure regardless.
Michael Curran
To this point, this season has certainly gone better than I expected with a brand new staff and almost entirely new roster. But similar to what Dan said, it would be hard for me to feel like the season as a whole was a success if the ‘Hoos don’t beat 14-seed Wright State. Especially since there’s so much first round scar tissue for Virginia fans, until a first post-2019 tournament win is recorded, I can’t say it will feel like a successful season. So, that’s where I’ll draw the line for avoiding failure.
Beyond that, a loss in the round of 32, specifically to 6-seed Tennessee, would definitely be disappointing, but it’s hard to argue that that result could be deemed a total failure. A second win to reach the Sweet 16, something Virginia has only done three times in the last 30 years, would be an unequivocal success for me. I think this team has shown enough that they could go further than that, but doing so would be the cherry on top in my mind.
Deuce Prince
Why not us? The ACC Championship, while a tough loss, showed that this team is only growing stronger as the year goes on and proved that we can compete with the best of the best. Depending on who you ask, this team has at least 5 different players who can completely take over a basketball game, a critical factor in the March gauntlet. I think the conference championship ending so frustratingingly may end up helping the ‘Hoos in the long run, as the loss to the Blue Devils eliminated any room for complacency within the team.
A win in the tournament cements Ryan Odom’s first year a massive success and will serve as a platform on which the program can continue to build.
While I believe that we are playing with house money beyond the first round, this team has the potential to do something really special.
Garrett Keogh
Like others have already said, you can chalk this season up as a success, given all of the newness around the program this year. Like the question mentioned, UVA hasn’t won a tournament game since the 2019 Natty, though. This team is way too talented, playing a more modern style of ball that’s more conducive to winning in March compared to some of the previous tourney years, to not win at least one game in this tournament. I won’t be greedy after these last few years.
The ‘Hoos are good enough to get to the second weekend—shoot, further than that playing at their best—but I’ll set my floor at getting out of the first round to end what’s been a brutal drought. In order to help make that happen, if someone could get rid of the old uniforms before this tournament starts, that would be awesome. I’m fully convinced those things are cursed with some sort of March voodoo.
Anna Thomas
This year’s team is good enough to make it deep into the tournament – if they play to their potential. I’ve said it all season long: Virginia is not lacking talent. The way the ‘Hoos played against Duke in the ACC Championship game proved more than talent, but that this team can compete in high-stakes, high-intensity moments.
So, while this season is already a success for a new coaching staff and roster, we still have untapped potential. An Elite Eight appearance is in the cards for the Cavaliers, if the team is operating like they did in the ACC tournament. While some may say that deep of a run is a stretch, I’d be satisfied if they made it to the Sweet Sixteen. To me, a loss in the first two rounds would be disappointing with the momentum they have going into the tournament. Ryan Odom and co. have checked the box for the regular season – but the postseason is a whole new ballgame (pardon the pun), and UVA needs to (and can) make a mark on both this year.
Grayson Miller
Virginia, an 18.5-point favorite over a Wright State team whose tallest regular contributor is 6-foot-9, could hardly ask for a better first-round matchup. A loss there, especially given the program’s history with tournament upsets, would cast a shadow over what has otherwise been an impressive season.
If the Cavaliers advance to face Tennessee in the second round, the challenge becomes much tougher. The Volunteers rank No. 16 nationally in both KenPom and BartTorvik, suggesting they are significantly under-seeded and closer to a No. 4 seed than a No. 6. That helps explain why Virginia, despite earning a No. 3 seed, has one of the lowest Sweet 16 odds among teams on that line. For that reason, I don’t believe a competitive loss to Tennessee would make this season a failure.
A Sweet 16 appearance would clearly qualify as a success. So would a close second-round loss to Tennessee. A first-round exit, a loss to SMU or Miami (Ohio), or a lopsided defeat to Tennessee would be a disappointment.
That said, in the NIL era, roster volatility has made single-season success less predictive of what comes next. This should not be viewed simply as Ryan Odom’s first year, but as what could statistically be one of his best Virginia teams. There is only so much higher a program can climb after entering the NCAA Tournament as a No. 3 seed and ranked No. 9 in the AP poll. I firmly believe that this team has the ceiling to make an Elite Eight or even Final Four run, and that makes the next two weeks especially must-see-TV.
