After a very good 2024 season (especially the second half of it) and signing a huge, long term contract, we really were hoping for another step forward. Yeah, this will be less than fun.
We didn’t get it:
| Age | WAR | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | GIDP | HBP | SF | IBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 1.1 | 144 | 609 | 542 | 72 | 141 | 25 | 0 | 9 | 57 | 7 | 4 | 56 | 81 | .260 | .332 | .356 | .688 | 90 | 20 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
Generated 10/13/2026.
Baseball Reference has him at a 1.1 WAR as did FanGraphs, giving him a value of $8.6 million to the Jays.
He had a .305 wOBA and a 95 wRC+, down from .366 and 137.
His walk rate was down, 9.2% (from 11.9). The strikeout rate also down, 13.3% from 13.8.
Vlad’s line-drive rate was up (21.2% from 18.5).
The ground ball rate was down (46.5% from 48.1). Fly balls down (32.3% from 33.4). Fewer of his fly balls left the park (14.3% from 17.1).
Vlad’s line-drive rate was down (17.3% from 21.2). The ground ball rate was up (48.6% from 46.5). Fly balls up (34.0% from 32.3). Far fewer of his fly balls left the park (5.7% from 14.3).
Soft contact was up (17.3% from 16.8), and hard contact was down (37.3% from 40.5).
Vlad hit LHP (.282/.383/.420) much better than RHP (.253/.314/.336).
He hit better on the road (.271/.328/.401) much better than at home (.249/.335/.311).
Vlad hit better in the first half of the season (.262/.346/.357) than in the second half (.257/.306/.354).
Vlad by month:
- April: .354/.438/.469 with 2 home runs, 15 walks and 15 strikeouts in 31 games.
- May: .232/.339/.284 with 1 home run, 15 walks and 10 strikeouts in 27 games.
- June: .198/.235/.264 with 1 home run, 5 walks and 12 strikeouts in 23 games.
- July: .256/.333-.395 with 2 home runs, 10 walks and 20 strikeouts in 23 games.
- August: .221/.259/.299 with 1 home run, 4 walks and 9 strikeouts in 19 games.
- September: ..275/.337/.400 with 2 home runs, 7 walks and 15 strikeouts in 21 games.
He hit .254/.333/.341 with RISP
Vlad was better in high leverage spots (.250/.340/.375) than low leverage spots (.239/.310/.331).
Defensively?
He had 8 errors at first base (most in the league), with a .992 fielding average (league average was .995).
FanGraphs has him at a +6 Outs Above Average. That is the top number at first base in the AL (Matt Olson, 12 and Ty France, 7 were higher in the NL).
FanGraphs has him at a -1.6 as a baserunner. He was 7 for 11 as a base stealer, which means we would have been better off if he didn’t try. If I ran things he’d have a permanent stop sign.
By Batting Order Position:
- 1st: 1 game, .250/.250/.250.
- 2nd: 39 games, .243/.317/.318.
- 3rd: 103 games, .267/.339/.373.
By Position:
- First Base: 127 games, .276/.354/.376.
- DH: 16 games, .149/.162/.224.
- Pinch hit once and was 0 for 1.
Last year he hit better as a DH than when he was playing first.
The Jays were 71-72 in his starts.
Longest hitting streak was 12 games.
Longest on base streak was 14 games.
Longest with a home runs was 23 games.
Longest hitless streak was 4 games.
Vlad’s Favorite team to face: He hit .364/.400/.591 in 6 games against the Guardians.
Lease Favorite: Hit just .143/.205/.171 in 10 games against the Rays.
Times facing a starter:
- First: .238/.296/.362.
- Second: .284/.381/.388.
- Third: .237/.276/.312.
- He had 2 PA against a starter for the fourth time. He was 0 for 2.
Swinging at the first pitch of an at bat he hit .271/.284/.447 with 3 home runs.
Random Baseball Savant numbers:
- Batting Run Value: 21st percentile.
- Fielding Run Value: 77th percentile.
- Expected Batting Average: 90th percentile.
- Hard Hit %: 72nd percentile.
- Sweet Spot%: 4th percentile.
- Range: 88th percentile.
- Arm Strength: 15th percentile.
- Sprint Speed: 24th percentile.
So, yeah, it was a terrible season for Vlad.
A lot will be made of him getting LASIK. It seems like the trendy thing for baseball players (I’d guess not just baseball players but people in other sports too). Most of the time it isn’t shared publicly like Vlad’s. You can get better than 20/20 vision with it, and a lot of players want that.
I find it hard to believe that Vlad’s vision changed all that much over the last winter. I could be wrong, but I’d bet that not many people go from 20/20 vision to poor vision suddenly at age 27. And, of course, teams give players an eye exam during spring training.
But then, if I had Vlad’s money (as much as I’m sure the team would pay for it), I’d likely go for 20/15 vision.
Will it make a difference next year? I guess we’ll see. It might give him more confidence. Confidence does seem important.
Comparing him to his Hall of Fame father through their age 27 seasons, he:
- Dad has pulled ahead on home runs 209 ro 192.
- The son is still ahead on RBI: 648 to 623.
- Jr. is ahead on games 1119 to 892.
- Dad is ahead on bWAR, 31.5 to 26.9.
- Dad is way ahead on OPS .973 to .839
At the start of Junior’s career, I asked “Who would have had the better career when Vlad Jr retires?” and I was surprised by how many said Junior. My answer was always ‘Bet on the guy in the Hall of Fame’. I still feel the same but Senior was out of a baseball at 36. Junior has a contract that will take him past that. And first base is easier on the body then right field. But, yeah bet on the Hall of Famer, always.
And, of course, Vlad is moving up the Blue Jays leader boards:
- 6th in bWAR: 26.9.
- 11th in Batting Average: .285.
- 11th in On Base: .361.
- 11th in Slugging: .478.
- 9th in OPS: .839.
- 8th in Games Played: 1119.
- 6th in Runs Scored: 643.
- 6th in Hits: 1218.
- 7th in Home Runs: 192.
- 9th in RBI: 591
- 5th in Walks: 486
Next year will be interesting. I’d bet on a bounce-back year, mostly because I don’t believe he could be this bad twice in a row. But in my OOTP Baseball, he was poor in 2027 and just awful in 2028…But I was able to trade him (without paying any of his leftover salary (yeah, not realistic, but I’m happy to have more money to play with). In the 6 games he’s played since the trade, he’s been very good.
If it really was a vision issue… well, it will likely take a bit for him to get used to tracking the ball with the better vision. Apparently, Bo Bichette had it done before last season, and he started slow this year, but improved as the season went on. He finished with a 97 OPS+, down from 128 last year.
Of course, there were some ‘aches and pains’ that might have added to Guerrero’s issues.
If I had to guess, I’d say Vlad might start slow and get better as the season goes on. But that’s a guess.
The fun of signing a huge contract is that people bring it up all the time, like a large salary means you are no longer a person who has the usual ups and downs everyone else does. But then, it is a problem I wouldn’t mind having.
