The Virginia Cavaliers (4-1, 2-0) hit the road for the first time since the beginning of September to face the Louisville Cardinals (4-0, 1-0) in a clash that now has big-time ramifications in the ACC.
UVA comes in riding as high as any team in the country after last Friday’s upset over Florida State. The ’Hoos accounted for 440 yards of total offense on the back of Chandler Morris’ five touchdowns, none bigger than his overtime dash to the pylon to put the Cavaliers ahead for good in the second overtime. Defensively, the ’Hoos tied a season-high performance with three turnovers, thanks in large part to Ja’Son Prevard’s two interceptions.
The Cardinals, led by head coach Jeff Brohm, roll into Saturday unbeaten and 6.5-point favorites after rebounding from a 17-point deficit at Pitt last weekend, in large part due to five Panther turnovers. The Cardinals started the season with a blowout win over Eastern Kentucky, a close win over JMU that was more in doubt than the eventual 28-14 score would suggest, and a 40-17 trouncing of Bowling Green in week four.
Kickoff from L&N Federal Credit Stadium is scheduled for 3:30 PM, with ESPN2 set to broadcast.
Three Players to Watch
QB Miller Moss
Moss transferred over from USC in the offseason as the predecessor to the productive Tyler Shough. So far, Moss and this passing offense have been serviceable enough to remain unbeaten, but they remain average overall. Moss ranks eighth in the league in completion percentage (65.6) and 11th in passing yards (1,029). Heading into last week’s game against Pitt, Moss had attempted an average of 27 passes per game — against the Panthers, he aired it out 51 times, completing 33 to go with three touchdowns and an interception.
The Cardinals struggled to win the line of scrimmage in their second game of the year against JMU, with Moss throwing for only 151 yards. UVA’s defense looked much improved against the Seminoles, if the Cavalier secondary can continue not to allow the big plays and make Moss and co. earn their points on long drives, I like Virginia’s chances to continue to force turnovers.
DL Clev Lubin
Lubin has been one of the key reasons this Cardinal defense has been so successful at getting after the quarterback. At 6-foot-3, 250 pounds, he’s a monster at the edge spot and already owns 3.5 sacks on the year, a mark that leads all players on the Cardinal defense and is tied for second in the ACC. He’s clearly been one of the best pass-rushers in the entire country, with Pro Football Focus awarding him with a 93.5 Pass Rush grade, which is the site’s highest rating of any player this season. Lubin’s best game by far came against JMU, where he racked up 10 tackles, 1.5 sacks, including a game-changing strip sack for a touchdown. Pitt largely held him in check a week ago, limiting the junior to two tackles and zero sacks. Regardless, he’ll be the guy UVA’s offensive line must keep out of the backfield throughout the day.
RB Isaac Brown
Brown was easily one of the top running backs in the league coming into the season. After a stellar 2024 that saw him finish for over 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns, the beginning of 2025 has been slower to get going. Through four games, he has just 33 carries for 268 yards and three touchdowns (J’Mari Taylor has 75 carries for reference). The reasoning behind Brown’s lack of impact is twofold. He left the Cardinals’ blowout win over Bowling Green two weeks ago after only one carry with an injury, so he’s been banged up. And, he’s running behind an offensive line that isn’t getting the push it did a year ago. Pitt exploited that deficiency a week ago, holding Brown to a mere 20 yards on the ground on 14 carries.
Two Keys to Win
Feed the three-headed monster
UVA continues to impress in the ground game, and put its dominance on display for the country to see last Friday — punishing FSU at the line of scrimmage for consistent gains, finishing with 211 rushing yards, with every single foot of that 211 seeming critical. In one of the most impressive drives of Tony Elliott’s tenure at UVA, the ’Hoos marched 74 yards, running the ball nine straight times on the 12-play drive to score a touchdown when the entire stadium knew Chandler Morris’s hand was banged up after he hit it on a helmet on the third play of the drive. UVA didn’t just luck their way into ground success against the ’Noles, the offensive line just wanted it more — and it showed.
UVA’s overall offensive success has started with its ability to run the ball at will. J’Mari Taylor continues to dazzle as one of the most dependable running backs in the country, owning 397 yards and an ACC-best seven touchdowns on the year. Xavier Brown and Harrison Waylee have helped keep Taylor fresh with their efforts, with Brown showcasing his speed as a perimeter runner last week, a change in style that contrasts with the more physical running we’ve seen from Taylor and Waylee.
Louisville’s passing defense has been great from a statistical perspective thus far. The Cardinal secondary has allowed 603 passing yards, combined with six interceptions (two of which came last week), and sits atop the league in both of those categories. If any team has the passing game to prove those stats to be nothing more than early-season anomalies, it’s Chandler Morris and the ’Hoos, but setting an early, consistent tone in the run game will need to be priority number one once again.
Ramp up the pressure
The Cavaliers got home for two sacks against the ’Noles and have been much improved from what’s been a horrible last three years at getting to the quarterback. Daniel Rickert has emerged as UVA’s best pass-rushing threat with 3.5 sacks and is tied for second-best in the ACC alongside Lubin.
Saturday will be an intersection of that much-improved pass rush and a weaker Louisville offensive line. The Cardinal offensive front has already surrendered eight sacks on Miller Moss, three of which came against Bowling Green. As previously mentioned with Isaac Brown, the success hasn’t been there on the ground, for Jeff Brohm’s offensive line either. Despite employing one of the better one-two punches in the league in Brown and Duke Watson, the rushing attack still ranks in the bottom half of the ACC with 521 yards as a team. Pitt’s defensive front was disruptive last week with ten tackles for loss; the ’Hoos have the playmakers in Mitchell Melton, Kam Robinson, and Ja’Son Prevard to make things just as difficult, and could all swing this game in UVA’s favor for a second-straight week.
One Prediction
The ’Hoos walking in as 6.5-point underdogs certainly feels weird, given how good the offense has looked throughout the first five games. Saturday will undoubtedly be a four-quarter game if the past six meetings are any indication. Things always seem to get weird, regardless of what Vegas thinks — a prime example being last year’s 24-20 game in Scott Stadium.
Watching Louisville-Pitt last week, had the Panthers not handed Louisville countless opportunities to climb back into the game, the vibe (and betting spread) around this game would be much different. UVA has the advantage at two of the most important positions in quarterback and offensive line, even without Brady Wilson for what will be a second-straight game.
UVA’s defense took the necessary steps forward last week in not allowing the big plays downfield. Louisville will need a handful of those explosives to keep pace against UVA’s red-hot offense, and I just don’t see that happening against what now looks like a more organized Cavalier secondary. I almost can’t believe I’m saying it in week six of 2025 — but UVA feels like the surer team of the two.
Prediction: UVA 31, Louisville 24
