Week 6 is an opportunity for the Las Vegas Raiders to bounce back after back-to-back losses, including last week’s blowout in New England. However, that certainly won’t come easy against the 4-1 Buffalo Bills, who currently have the best Super Bowl odds (+750) of any AFC team, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
In other words, if the Raiders are going to prove to be a legitimate playoff contender in 2026, they need to win the key matchups below.
Raiders’ OL vs. Rousseau, Walker
Part of the reason for Las Vegas’ two-game skid is that
quarterback Kirk Cousins has been under pressure more frequently. According to Pro Football Focus, Cousins was pressured on 33 of his 101 dropbacks (32.7%) in Weeks 1 through 3, and he’s faced pressure on 34 of 83 dropbacks (41.0%) in the last two games combined. Two of the biggest culprits on the Raiders’ offensive line are left guard Spencer Burford and left tackle Kolton Miller.
Granted, Burford only gave up one pressure against the Chiefs, but he surrendered five and posted a 0.0 pass-blocking grade against the Patriots. Also, the five-year veteran has yielded the most pressures (18) of any guard in the NFL for the season so far, meaning pass protection has been an issue for him beyond the last two games.
That’s forced the left tackle to give his guard more help, contributing to a slip in Miller’s production. He was beaten for just five pressures in Weeks 1 through 3 combined before losing 12 times in the last two weeks. To be fair, not all of Miller’s issues are tied to Burford. The former has plenty of room for individual improvement, too, specifically with how he handles power rushers.
Meanwhile, the Bills’ defense has an up-and-coming pass-rush duo with edge-rusher Greg Rousseau and defensive tackle Deone Walker.
Rousseau has posted six sacks in five games, which is two shy of tying a career high, and leads his position with 35 pressures, per PFF. Now, the 26-year-old has primarily lined up as a left outside linebacker or on the right side of the offensive line so far this season. However, he’s had more snaps on the right side every game since Week 2, topping out at 19 snaps against the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football.
Given Miller’s struggles and the fact Rousseau primarily wins with power, the left tackle’s weakness, expect Buffalo to at least test Vegas’ blindside protector with its best pass-rusher on Sunday.
On the interior, Walker has spent almost as much time as a right defensive tackle (89 snaps) as he has on the left side (93) this season. So, he’ll likely be testing Burford, or whoever is in at left guard for the Silver and Black. On paper, that’s a favorable matchup for Buffalo since the 2025 fourth-round pick heads into the game ranking third among defensive tackles with 21 pressures.
Granted, Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak hinted at some offensive line changes during his press conference on Monday. That could mean Burford will be on the bench this Sunday. But regardless of who is in the trenches, the offensive line has to have an answer for Rousseau and Walker.
The Bills defense has been bad this season, tying for the most points per game allowed (32.8) and giving up the fourth-most yards per game (396.2). So, if the Silver and Black can keep those two defensive linemen in check, their offense should be able to move the ball and put points on the board.
Leonard vs. Brady
Sure, play-callers could be a “key matchup” every game, but this one feels more or extra important for Raiders defensive coordinator Rob Leonard.
Leonard started hot, keeping the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers to 13 and 14 points, respectively, in his first two games ever as a coordinator. However, the book is out on his tendacies and Vegas is averaging 34.0 points per game allowed over the last three weeks.
The Silver and Black are feeling the effects of having a first-time defensive play-caller. It wasn’t as prevalent against the New Orleans Saints, but the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots seemingly had the answers to the test with perfect play calls for what the Raiders were running, especially on money downs. Now, an offensive coordinator turned head coach, Joe Brady, comes into town.
During his three seasons as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator, Brady’s offenses ranked fourth, 10th and fourth in yards, and sixth, second and fourth in points. After getting promoted to head coach in the offseason while retaining offensive play-calling duties, he hasn’t skipped a beat with the No. 4 offense in terms of yards and No. 1 in points so far in 2026.
Those aren’t exactly encouraging numbers for a struggling first-time defensive coordinator, but Leonard has to start making adjustments. The foundation of his scheme is solid (it’s very similar to Mike Macdonald’s with the Seattle Seahawks), showcasing a lot of creativity. But it might be time to reverse course and simplify the play calls because he’s losing the element of surprise.
For example, Sumer Sports has the Raiders rotating safeties 44.0% of the time, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Changing up the pre- and post-snap looks works when the opposing quarterback isn’t expecting it or is caught off-guard. But when it’s that frequent, they can just expect the picture to change and take advantage of defenders being out of position since the defenders have to sprint to their spots rather than lining up in them.
It’s all part of the chess match, which Leonard is still learning at this stage in his career. But if Las Vegas is going to pull off an upset on Sunday, he needs to be a quick study.
Stukes vs. Allen
Josh Allen was the NFL MVP two years ago and has looked like one of the early favorites to win the award for a second time in 2026. To put it in perspective, he’s averaging 30 more passing yards (219.5 to 249.8) and 16 more rushing yards (31.2 to 47.8) per game than he did in 2024. Also, he leads the league with eight rushing touchdowns and has seven scores through the air so far this season.
Allen is one of those quarterbacks where if a defense tries to take away everything, they’ll end up taking away nothing. He’s become so dynamic that the strategy shifts to just trying to limit the damage and then forcing him into a mistake or two. One way to do that is to get the MVP candidate to play hero ball and force passes downfield.
The Wyoming product has always been known for his arm strength and gunslinger mentality. This season, he’s tied for sixth with 23 pass attempts of 20 or more yards past the line of scrimmage, per PFF, but isn’t having much success.
Allen has only completed nine of those attempts for a 39.1 completion percentage that is tied for 22nd among qualifying quarterbacks (minimum five deep passes). Also, six of his seven “turnover-worthy plays” have come on deep shots for the highest TWP rate (22.2%) on said throws in the league.
Meanwhile, another aspect of the Raiders’ defensive regression is that they’ve only turned the ball over once in the last two games — a forced fumble against the Patriots — and haven’t had an interception since Week 3. Given Allen’s propensity to push the ball downfield, the spotlight will be on Vegas’ free safety, Treydan Stukes.
Stukes only has one pick so far, stepping in front of a deep pass from Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis in the season opener. Also, the rookie is coming off the worst game of his young career, making a few coverage mistakes in New England.
However, the Arizona product was known for his ball skills in college, recording seven career interceptions, including four last year. Additionally, he’s been a solid first-year defender in the three other games he’s played during the campaign.
That being said, the Raiders need Stukes to be on his “A-game” and take advantage if/when Allen gives him an opportunity to create a momentum-shifting play.
