The Buffalo Bills were the talk of the NFL after the first two weeks of the season not only because they were averaging 38 points per game and started 2-0.
In the increasing analytics-happy or at least analytics aware NFL universe, Buffalo’s utilization of 13 personnel (three tight ends on the field at the same time) was applauded by the masses as the Bills standing away from the crowd — ironically alongside the Rams, their Week 5 opponent — to maximize offensive efficiency and keep defenses guessing
run or pass.
The past two weeks, the heavy lean into 13 personnel has all but officially vanished.
The crazy part about the relatively very low rate in Week 4… of course DJ Moore left in the first half and didn’t return. That development was begging for the Bills to go revert to their previously trademark tight end trio, and they decided against it.
Also I can’t be convinced the Bills lack of 13 personnel against New England was game-script oriented. No team ever held more than a touchdown lead throughout.
The key piece to this group — Dalton Kincaid, only appeared on 35 snaps in Week 4, his first game under 40 snaps this season. For the Bills sake, it should be the only time he plays fewer than 40 snaps. His presence on the field is too valuable.
Sure, Kincaid isn’t going to move people in the run game like Dawson Knox or Jackson Hawes.
But if you’re sitting in a multiple tight-end set around 30-40% of the time, the opposition can’t always assume it’s a pass play. They have to match with more base defense with less coverageWhen it’s a hardly-used grouping, it doesn’t have nearly as much of a disguising effect.
If Moore can’t play against the Rams, the Bills need to live in multiple tight-end personnel groupings as much as reasonably possible. Doesn’t just have to be 13. Filter through the tight end combinations in 12 personnel. In fact, the Bills have dipped to 23rd in EPA per play when in 13 — the last two weeks have severely hurt those figures — but are 4th in EPA per play when using 12 personnel.
And this push isn’t simply schematic. Buffalo’s tight end trio needs to regularly block more effectively for the multiple-tight end sets to work well for the ground game too.
Without Moore, the Bills should be shying away from 11 personnel (three receivers on the field). Without Moore, the receiver group is not a strength of the team.
The tight end group, running back, and offensive line are the strengths beyond Josh Allen.
Here’s to more multiple tight-end sets from the Bills on Monday Night Football against the Rams and in the foreseeable future.
