The Dallas Mavericks enter year two of the Cooper Flagg era with renewed fire. They are getting Kyrie Irving back after his horrible injury a year and a half ago. Dereck Lively will make his return at some point, and they are adding rookies Morez Johnson Jr. and Sergio De Larrea to their young core alongside Cooper Flagg. P.J. Washington and Naji Marshall will provide veteran wing minutes, and Daniel Gafford will ride a healthy ankle to the starting center role. There will be a mix of the same stuff
we saw last season with new wrinkles we have not experienced in some time.
It is hard to gauge the Mavericks’ direction this season. They have a lot of win-now components: Kyrie Irving’s return, Dusty May trying to prove himself, and Masai Ujiri’s commitment to competitive basketball, to name a few. But Ujiri has also talked about focusing on a future revolving around Cooper Flagg, and balancing the two will be tough. A lot of it will hinge on how Dallas looks over the first three months. Some of it will depend on how satisfied their vets are to be here. But ultimately it will come down to what is in the best interest of Cooper Flagg. But in any outcome, we will get something we have not gotten in almost two seasons: fun basketball.
Tyler Edsel, Joe Friedman, and I have done previews of the other teams in the NBA. For all of those, just one of us gave our opinion on the team’s outcome and whether or not they will exceed their win total. This time, we are all pitching in and giving some fun bets to place on this Mavericks team, as well as giving our predictions for the season. Here are our picks:
Dallas Mavericks: Over/Under 33.5 Wins (+100/-125)
Last Season: 26-56, missed playoffs
Key Additions: Kyrie Irving (injury), Morez Johnson Jr., Marcus Sasser, Sergio De Larrea, Santi Aldama
Key Losses: Klay Thompson
David
- Cooper Flagg to average 24 points per game (-105)
- Southwest division third place (+130)
- To make the play-in (+135)
Long shot: Mavericks to win 45+ games (+1000)
Cooper Flagg is not just going to take a step up this year; he is going to take the step. He will be a top 15 player in the NBA. Think 25 points, eight rebounds, and five assists per game, along with a steal and a block. Kyrie Irving will complement Flagg beautifully, and if he can get back to form, that means Dallas will have two top-25 players. Any team with two players of that caliber will find a hard time losing 40 games, regardless of the roster. I am fully leaning in to the best version of this team: a scrappy, fast-paced group that causes problems with the one-two punch of Flagg and Irving. They will make a push to the play-in while finishing behind Houston and San Antonio in the division. I cannot guarantee a playoff berth, as this roster is not built for the playoffs as currently constructed, but they will have a better regular season than a lot of people anticipate.
David’s Prediction: Over 33.5 wins (+100)
Tyler
- Bulls to have more regular season wins than Mavs (+155)
- Mavericks to finish 4th in Southwest division (+190)
- Dallas to have more wins than Washington (+110)
- Mavericks to advance to the knockout stage of the NBA Cup (+700)
Long shot: Cooper Flagg to make any All-NBA team (+290)
Clearly I am lower on this Mavericks squad than most here on site, but I think the reasoning is pretty sound. This team, even with a new front office, new coach, and very new packaging, is essentially the same unit that won fewer than 30 games last season. Now, Kyrie Irving is back and healthy for the time being, but who knows if he will be here in 4 months. Cooper Flagg will be, and he will take a big leap this season by making an All-NBA team. But the rest of the team is largely the same as they were.
I think the Chicago Bulls will make a play-in tournament push, as Caleb Wilson, Matas Buzelis, and new coach Tiago Splitter will set a culture around there that is much needed. And finally, I think Memphis finishes ahead of Dallas this season, pushing the Mavs to a distant fourth in the division. Cam Boozer will run away with ROTY, and the rest of the group will fall in line with him.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Team built around Anthony Davis and the #1 overall pick are thought to be a sleeper playoff contender. FOOL ME ONE TIME? SHAME ON YOU. FOOL ME TWICE? CAN’T PUT THE BLAME ON YOU. My last pick is a bonus bet. The NBA Cup is early in the season, so Kyrie and some of the injury-prone players might not be hurt yet. The team will care, as with a new coach and your best player being so young, they’ll be trying. Plus, maybe no one else does. They’re in a group with Denver, Phoenix, Utah, and Houston. Houston and Denver have eyes on a bigger prize. And while Utah is primed for improvement, I don’t buy it with the Suns. Dallas will care, and that gets them a fun little participation medal.
Tyler’s Prediction: Under 33.5 wins (-125)
Joe
- Mavericks to win 35+ games (+125)
- Mavs to finish higher than the 11 seed (-125)
- Mavericks to win more games than the Blazers (+280)
- Mavericks to win more games than the Warriors (+140)
Long shot: Cooper Flagg to win Most Improved Player +7000
Most of these bets come down to the same basic idea: I think the Mavericks will win more games than people expect, and I think Cooper Flagg is about to take a huge Year 2 leap. Dallas getting to 35-plus wins at +125 feels like strong value considering they were basically a 35-win-level team last season before clearly leaning into losses late in the year, and I do not think the roster is bad enough for them to completely fall apart. I also like them to finish third or better in the Southwest division as David does, and above the No. 11 seed because neither bet requires some massive breakout season, just for Dallas to be solid and competitive. The head-to-head win bets against Golden State and Portland are interesting for the opposite reason, because I rate both teams lower than the market seems to. Golden State still depends heavily on Steph Curry staying healthy, while Portland could get messy trying to balance Ja Morant, Damian Lillard, and Deni Avdija on the same roster. The fun long shot is Flagg for Most Improved at +7000, because if he makes the kind of jump I expect and goes from around 21 points per game into the high-20s while Dallas moves up the standings, that case could become very real very quickly.
