Series Preview/Know Your Foe: Arlington Rangers @ Houston Astros

After a 4-5 road trip where Houston lost the AL West lead (as Seattle is apparently allergic to losing), the Astros look to get back on track at home against the suddenly resurgent Rangers. It may not officially be the playoffs, but playoff pressure is here.

Series Preview/Know Your Foe: Arlington Rangers @ Houston Texans

The last scheduled homestand of the year…and perhaps the 6 biggest games of the year. First off, a 3-game set against the Rangers for the Silver Boot…and perhaps a lot more.

Rangers

Standings:

79-71 (3rd in the AL West) 2.5 Games Back, 2.0 Games Back of the Last AL Wild Card
Road Record: 32-43 (Astros Home Record: 43-32)
Record vs. AL West: 25-24 (Astros vs AL West: 19-21)
Last 10: 7-3 [LWLWWWWWWL] (HOU: 4-6 [LLWLLWLWWL])
2025 Record vs. Houston: 6-4 (Split 2-2 (5/15-18); Won 2-1 @ HOU (7/11-13); Won 2-1 (9/6-8))
Record since last meeting with Houston: 5-1 (Houston: 3-3)
All-Time Record vs. Houston: 150-147
Playoff Record: 4-3 (2023 ALCS)

Rangers Season since last meeting: It was but a week ago that these two teams slugged it out. After taking 2 of 3 against the hated Astros, the Rangers are continuing their massive upturn in play. Perhaps it is things returning to the mean. The Rangers have a run differential of +94 (as of Sunday), which is 3rd best in the AL (behind the Yankees and Red Sox), which should give them an expected record of 86-64. However, they are underwater in one-run games (21-25) (which is a bit surprising for a team leading the league in defense/pitching). This is part of a torrid stretch from the squad (15-5 since August 22nd). All of this with so many key weapons sidelined (Eovaldi, Seager, Carter, etc). If this is Bochy’s swan song, it is set to be one of the greatest career finishes in recent baseball history. However, the Rangers still have to navigate this stretch, and it starts in Houston.

Rangers Leaders

Offense: [NOTE: Stat leaders based eligibility for batting title and who is currently on the roster, unless otherwise noted]

HR: LF Wyatt Langford (Tied with SS Corey Seager at 21, but Seager is no longer eligible for the batting title)
RBI: RF Adolis Garcia (73)
BA: SS Josh Smith (.257)
OPS: Wyatt Langford (.778)

Pitching: [NOTE: Stat leaders based on eligibility for ERA title and who is currently on the roster, unless otherwise noted]

ERA: Jacob DeGrom (2.82) [For those not eligible for the ERA title, Reliever Shawn Armstrong has a 2.43 ERA over 64 appearances].
Wins: Jacob DeGrom (12)
Saves: Robert Garcia, Shawn Armstrong tied in saves (9)
WHIP: Jacob DeGrom (.92) [For those not eligible for the ERA title, Reliever Shawn Armstrong posts a .83 WHIP over 59 appearances]

Projected Pitching Matchups (SUBJECT TO CHANGE)

Monday, September 15 @ 7:10 p.m. CDT: Jack Leiter (9-8, 3.81 ERA) vs. Jason Alexander (4-1, 4.19 ERA)
Tuesday, September 16 @ 7:10 p.m. CDT: Merrill Kelly (12-7, 3.21 ERA) vs. Cristian Javier (1-3, 4.78 ERA)
Wednesday, September 17 @ 7:10 p.m. CDT: Jacob DeGrom (12-7, 2.82 ERA) vs. Colton Gordon (4-4, 5.73 ERA)

Field Position Starters (SUBJECT TO CHANGE) (BA/OBP/SLG)

C: Jonah Heim (.214/.272/.333)
1B: Rowdy Tellez (.225/.271/.431)
2B: Cody Freeman (.231/.247/.359)
3B: Josh Jung (.248/.292/.386)
SS: Josh Smith (.257/.343/.372)
LF: Wyatt Langford (.242/.341/.432)
CF: Michael Helman (.281/.343/.594)
RF: Adolis Garcia (.233/.276 /.404)
DH: Joc Pederson (.177/.285/.329)

Rangers Offense: Not much has changed in the 6 games since these two teams last slugged it out. The overall offensive numbers still aren’t great (26th in BA, 24th in OBP and 25th in SLG). However, they are up to 16th in runs scored, and given their pitching/defense, that is an encouraging sign. While some of the key weapons (Seager, Semien) are still out, the Rangers are getting enough contributions from other players. Langford and back-up 1B Jake Burger are doing their part to carry the offense. Also, the Rangers are expected to have Adolis Garcia back in the lineup, and while he has posted uneven numbers this season, Garcia does love playing in Houston (as we know all too well). As for baserunning/stealing, the Rangers still rank in the top tier (7th), so they are a threat to advance runners once on base, but they still need their bats to take the lead in these actions.

Rangers Pitching/Defense: It is still all about that pitching and defense. They still lead MLB with the fewest runs allowed and they dominate in most of the key pitching categories (1st in Team ERA and WHIP, 2nd in BAA). Jason DeGrom still leads the staff, and did well in his return to Queens. The rotation for the Rangers coming into Houston is fairly strong, with DeGrom and Kelly slated to take the mound, along with the improving Leiter (2-2, 3.03 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in his last 4 starts). The bullpen still aids in the overall pitching metrics. Shawn Armstrong is now the main closer for the Rangers, just another piece in the mix-and-match capabilities of Bochy. The team’s defense still leads the league in runs saved and they’ve committed the fewest errors in the league.

Most Dangerous Player: 1B Jake Burger: Currently the Rangers are platooning their 1B, but Burger’s bat has been among the best in the game. In the last 7 games, he is slashing .308/.357/654 with 3 HRs and 5 RBIs. You can’t completely discount Garcia, as he has a habit of disheartening Astros fans in Houston. Still, with all the adjustments the Rangers have had to make, Burger’s contributions are just one of several that have the Rangers on the doorstep of the playoffs.

Injuries: Um, yeah, the Rangers have quite a few players facing injuries:

P Chris Martin (hand); Day-to-Day; Projected Return: TBD
P Tyler Mahle (shoulder); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: September
SS Corey Seager (appendectomy); 10-Day IL; Projected Return: Late September
P Danny Coulombe (shoulder); 15-Day IL; Projected Return: TBD
CF Evan Carter (wrist); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
P Nathan Eovaldi (shoulder); 15-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
2B Marcus Semien (foot); 10-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
P Jon Gray (should); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
IF/OF Sam Haggerty (ankle); 10-Day IL; Projected Return: Mid-September
P Josh Sborz (shoulder); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
P Cody Bradford (elbow); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026

Intangibles: Since they last played Houston, the Rangers are 5-1 against teams with winning records. They are playing hot and the vibes/aura/etc are quite nice in Arlington. Bochy probably won’t win Manager of the Year, but if he does get this squad into the post-season, he should a) at least garner a few votes and b) will be perhaps the most dangerous manager in the playoffs. One more win gives them their first Silver Boot in 9 years. However, the Rangers are thinking more than just about a Boot. The playoffs and even the division are all in range.

Series Outlook: The playoffs technically don’t start for two more weeks, but for all intents and purposes, Houston’s playoffs start now. Houston finishes will all AL West games, a division that they have historically owned, but one that they have a current losing record in. With the West coming down to the wire like it would before the start of the year, these matchups all have major significance. One more Rangers win gives them the season series, the tiebreaker and the Silver Boot. With the other two Wild Card spots taken by the Yankees and Red Sox, likely the runner-up in the AL West will snag that final spot. Houston woke up Monday trailing in the AL West for the first time since June. However, Houston does control its own destiny, as they get Arlington and Seattle at home. Both of those squads don’t play near as well on the road as they do at home, but Houston just lost its last home series against the Rangers. The offensive inconsistencies and the pitching attrition does not have Houston in a great spot. With Altuve likely to miss a game or two, leaders like Correa will need to pick up the slack. In a way, this is like 2023, when it came down to the wire in the AL West. Keep the heart medication close at hand.

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