Each year, I look at how each Jays player performed during the season.
We signed Dylan Cease on December 2nd last year. He got a seven-year, $210 million contract. I read a few baseball commentators call it the worst free-agent signing of the off-season. Right now, they appear very wrong.
We disagreed. 42.9% of us were ‘Kind of Happy’, 41.8% were Very Happy. Only 5.1% were Kind of or Very Unhappy.
Cease spent the previous two seasons with the Padres. He had a very good season in 2024, a 3.47 ERA and
a 4.0 bWAR and a less good 2025 season, with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.0 bWAR.
The Jays thought they saw something in him that they could ‘fix’. I’m always dubious of teams thinking that. But it seems like the Jays were right.
| Age | WAR | W | L | ERA | G | GS | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | BK | WP | BF | ERA+ | SO9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 5.7 | 11 | 6 | 2.40 | 29 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 169.0 | 108 | 54 | 45 | 11 | 78 | 0 | 239 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 685 | 184 | 12.7 |
Generated 9/27/2026.
Baseball Reference has him at 5.7 WAR, and Fangraphs has him at 5.5, valuing him at $43.9 million to the Blue Jays.
Dylan had a 2.56 FIP and 2.93 xFIP.
He had a .274 BABIP (down from .320 last year). 77.8% of the base runners he allowed were stranded (up from 69.0% last year).
Cease’s line drive rate was 20.4% (down from 21.8% last year). His ground ball rate was 42.1% (up from 36.6). And the fly ball rate was 37.5% (down from 41.5). 8.1% of his fly balls left the park (down from 11.9).
His strikeout rate was 34.9% (up from 29.8), while his walk rate was up 11.4% from 9.8.
Dylan’s soft contact rate was up (21.6% from 17.2). Hard contact was down (29.0% from 33.8).
He was slightly better vs. LHB (.167/.267/.271) than RHB (.198/.289/.270). Career, he has been a fair bit better vs. right-handed batters.
Cease was better on the road (batters hit.162/.257/.234, with a 1.94 ERA) than at home (.198/.295/.305 with a 2.85 ERA).
He was slightly better in the second half (2.17, .167/.265/.285) than in the first half (2.56, .190/.284/.261).
Cease by month:
- April: 6 starts, 1-1, 2.87. Batters hit .220/.326/.246 with 0 home runs, 17 walks and 49 strikeouts.
- May: 5 starts, 2-2, 3.23. Batters hit .209/.275/.373 with 5 home runs, 9 walks and 43 strikeouts.
- June: 4 starts, 1-1, 2.95. Batters hit .182/.308/.221 with 0 home runs, 14 walks and 36 strikeouts..
- July: 5 starts, 3-1, 1.00. Batters hit .125/.198/.217 with 2 home runs, 11 walks and 46 strikeouts.
- August: 5 starts, 2-0, 2.03. Batters hit .144/.242/.260 with 3 home runs, 14 walks and 43 strikeouts.
- September: 4 starts, 2-1, 2.89. Batters hit .214/.333/.314 with 1 home run, 13 walks and 22 strikeouts.
The Jays were 18-11 in his starts. They averaged 4.56 runs per game in his starts. They scored 3 or fewer runs in 11 of his starts.
Days of rest:
- 4 days, 13 starts: 5-3, 2.75 ERA, batters hit .178/.280/.280.
- 5 days, 10 starts: 5-1, 1.96 ERA, batters hit .167/.263/.234.
- 6 or more days: 6 starts, 1-2, 2.38 ERA, batters hit .206/.291/.310.
By Catcher:
- Tyler Heineman: 5 games, 4.23 ERA, batters hit .230/.350/.310.
- Alejandro Kirk: 15 games, 2.44 ERA, batters hit .173/.276/.256.
- Brandon Valenzuela: 9 games, 1.43 ERA, batters hit .167/.236/.273.
Times through the order:
- 1st: Batters hit .160/.257/.255.
- 2nd: Batters hit .174/.251/.230.
- 3rd: Batters hit .224/.346/.366.
- 4th: Batters hit ..250/.400/.250 in just 5 PA.
Dylan was good with RISP, holding batters to a .200/.255/.255 line.
In high-leverage spots, batters hit .233/.284/.291. Low leverage .157/.259/.252.
His best start, according to GameScore, was a 94 on July 25th, in Boston. He went 9 innings, allowing 1 hit, 3 walks, and 12 strikeouts. He also posted an 88 on July 8th in San Francisco, allowing 1 hit in 8 innings, with 3 walks and 11 strikeouts.
The worst start was a 38 GameScore. September 18th, going 2.2 innings, allowing 3 hits, 4 runs, 1 earned run, 6 walks and 6 strikeouts against the Rangers. You likely remember it.
José averaged 5.8 innings per start.
Cease had a super season. He tired a bit near the end. I didn’t think the Jays really worked him all that hard; he threw 169 innings. In 2024, he threw 189 innings. But then different innings cause different stresses.
It was a nice way to start a seven-year contract. Odds are his last couple of seasons won’t be as good, but we have a while until then. He’s clearly our opening-day starter next year. When 77% of your outs are strikeouts or groundouts, it is a good season.
I’m not going to worry (much) about his ‘tired arm’ at the end of the season. If they suddenly schedule surgery, then I’ll worry, but a tired arm does happen.
Before the season, Steamer projected him to make 32 starts, throw 185 innings with a 3.61 ERA, a 12-10 record, and a 3.8 fWAR. The 185 innings was overly hopeful, but the rest they undershot the target.
By Baseball Savant, his fastball was a little slower than last year: 96.8 mph this year, 97.1 last year, but it got hit harder last year: .204 this year, .241 last. His slider was also harder, 89.1 to 88.7 this year. Batters hit his slider at .145 this year, .228 last year.
We changed his pitch usage some:
Four Seamer: 37.0% this year, 42.1% last year.
Slider: 30.1% this year, 40.8 last year.
Change-up: 11.5% this year, 1.2 last.
Knuckle Curve: 10.1% this year, 8.3 last.
Sinker: 7.9% this year, 3.9 last.
Sweeper: 3.5% this year, 3.5 last.
Before the season we asked:
If the over/under on Dylan’s innings is 180, I’d take the…..33.81% of us were right. If he hadn’t tired at the end, it would have been very close.
We also asked, “If the over/under on Dylan’s wins in his seven-year contract was 77”. 52.9% of us picked the over. We also asked who would be the opening-day starter. 9.3 said, Cease. Most were right in picking Gausman.tarter. 9.3 said Cease. Most were right picking Gausman.
