The New England Patriots’ first game of the post-Bill Belichick era took place last September at Cincinnati’s Paycor Stadium. The 16-10 upset, which resulted in head coach Jerod Mayo getting doused in Gatorade, was not a sign of things to come for the team: 14 months later, with the Patriots set to return to the Queen City, it is now led by a new head coach, Mike Vrabel.
The Patriots under Vrabel made a remarkable turnaround, and just last week secured their first winning season since 2021 and eighth
straight victory. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is in a position similar to that 2024 New England team: at 3-7, their playoff hopes are effectively over, and change might be on the horizon.
With that all being said, let’s meet the Patriots’ upcoming opponent.
Bengals key stats
As noted above, the Bengals are entering Week 12 having won just three of their first ten games this season. Unsurprisingly, their key stats look the part.
Record: 3-7 (3rd AFC North)
Scoring differential: -106 (31st)
Turnover differential: -7 (t-28th)
Offense: 22.8 points/game (18th), 307.1 yards/game (23rd), 16 giveaways (29th), -0.009 EPA/play (22nd), -0.031 EPA/dropback (26th), 0.043 EPA/run (2nd)
Defense: 33.4 points/game (32nd), 418.2 yards/game (32nd), 9 takeaways (t-24th), 0.205 EPA/play (32nd), 0.274 EPA/dropback (32nd), 0.108 EPA/run (31st)
There is a lot to unpack here, starting with the fact that Cincinnati’s defense is the statistically worst in football. No other unit has given up more than 30 points or over 400 yards per game, but the Bengals have topped both those marks. The unit also ranks dead-last in expected points added per play, and in various other categories not mentioned here, including first downs, points per drive and yards per drive given up.
Unfortunately for Cincinnati, it’s offense has only been marginally better. It’s 18th place ranking in points per game is admirable, while its EPA per run number is nothing short of impressive. That said, that 0.043 number requires some context: the Bengals are ranked dead-last in the NFL with only 191 rushing attempts and 30th with 814 yards on the ground.
Bengals 2025 season
Before looking at the Bengals’ 2025 season, we will ask you a question: can you pinpoint the moment starting quarterback Joe Burrow was placed on injured reserve because of a turf toe injury?
Week 1: 17-16 win at Cleveland Browns (1-0)
Week 2: 31-27 win vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-0)
Week 3: 48-10 loss at Minnesota Vikings (2-1)
Week 4: 28-3 loss at Denver Broncos (2-2)
Week 5: 37-24 loss vs. Detroit Lions (2-3)
Week 6: 27-18 loss at Green Bay Packers (2-4)
Week 7: 33-31 win vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-4)
Week 8: 39-38 loss vs. New York Jets (3-5)
Week 9: 47-42 loss vs. Chicago Bears (3-6)
Week 10: Bye
Week 11: 34-12 loss at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7)
If you said “ahead of Week 3” as the answer to our question above, you are correct. Burrow was banged up in Week 2 against Jacksonville, and has been out ever since. With him sidelined, the Bengals’ house of cards started to collapse: the offense was no longer able to make up for an abysmal defense, despite putting forward some competitive games before the team’s Week 10 bye.
Overall, however, the Bengals have gone 1-7 in games Burrow did not start. And while his absence is not the sole reason for that record, it does show how massively important to the overall operation in Cincinnati he is.
Bengals active roster
Roster up-to-date as of Nov. 19, 5 a.m. ET | *denotes nominal starter
Quarterback (3): Joe Flacco* (16), Jake Browning (6), Sean Clifford (4)
Running back (3): Chase Brown* (30), Samaje Perine (34), Tahj Brooks (25)
Wide receiver (5): Tee Higgins* (5), Andrei Iosivas* (80), Mitch Tinsley* (82), Charlie Jones (15 | KR/PR), Jermaine Burton (81)
Tight end (4): Noah Fant* (86), Drew Sample (89), Tanner Hudson (87), Cam Grandy (85)
Offensive tackle (3): Orlando Brown Jr.* (75 | LT), Amarius Mims* (71 | RT), Cody Ford (61)
Interior offensive line (5): Dylan Fairchild* (63 | LG), Ted Karras* (64 | C), Jalen Rivers* (74 | RG), Dalton Risner (66), Lucas Patrick (62)
Interior defensive line (5): B.J. Hill* (92), T.J. Slaton Jr.* (98), Kris Jenkins Jr. (90), McKinnley Jackson (93), Jordan Jefferson (94)
Defensive edge (5): Trey Hendrickson (91), Myles Murphy* (99), Joseph Ossai* (58), Cedric Johnson (52), Cam Sample (96)
Linebacker (5): Barrett Carter* (49), Demetrius Knight Jr.* (44), Oren Burks (42), Joe Giles-Harris (43), Brian Asamoah II (53)
Cornerback (6): Dax Hill* (23), D.J. Turner II* (20), Cam Taylor-Britt* (29), Josh Newton (28), D.J. Ivey (38), Marco Wilson (24)
Safety (4): Jordan Battle* (27), Geno Stone* (22), Tycen Anderson (26), P.J. Jules (37)
Specialists (3): Evan McPherson (2 | K), Ryan Rehkow (8 | P/H), William Wagner (46 | LS)
The Bengals initially trusted backup Jake Browning to take over for the injured Joe Burrow, but it soon became clear that he was not the answer they had hoped for. And so, the team opted to swing a trade for since-benched Browns starter Joe Flacco. Since his arrival in October, Flacco has started all five of his games and completed 135
of 213 pass attempts (63.4%) for 1,453 yards with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions.
Even though he has managed to lead Cincinnati to only one win, Flacco has been fine as the team’s quarterback. In fact, since his arrival he is ranked eighth among all NFL quarterbacks in EPA per play (0.173).
Of course, he will have to operate his offense against the Patriots without its best player. Wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase (79-861-5) was suspended just this week for spitting on cornerback Jalen Ramsey during last Sunday’s loss to the Steelers. With him out, Tee Higgins (35-544-7) will move into the WR1 role with Andrei Iosivas (19-256-1) and tight end Noah Fant (30-256-3) in particular likely to see an uptick in targets as well.
Also a candidate for a bigger role in the passing game with Chase out is running back Chase Brown, who has had a productive season so far. Besides ranking first on the team in carries (126), rushing yards (519) and rushing touchdowns (2), he also is second in catches (39) and fifth in receiving yards (229).
Brown and company are playing behind an offensive line that, much like New England’s, is relying heavily on rookies. Both starting guards — Dylan Fairchild and Jalen Rivers — are first-year players.
The other side of the ball, meanwhile, is a problem child for Cincinnati. And things will not be any easier this week given that sack leader Trey Hendrickson (4.0) is set to miss a third straight game with a hip injury. Replacing him on the edge will be Myles Murphy and Joseph Ossai, who have registered a combined 5.5 sacks this year.
Behind them, the Bengals are also trusting a pair of rookies. Barrett Carter and Demetrius Knight Jr, the projected starting linebackers, are in their first years in the league. Oren Burks, a free agency signing in March, is adding a veteran presence to the group as a rotational third option with occasional starting usage.
In the secondary, Cincinnati has relied on plenty of zone coverage and more experience than at the second level. Nickelback Dax Hill is the most experienced member of the group.
Bengals reserves
Practice squad (15): RB Gary Brightwell (32), RB Kendall Milton (36), WR Jordan Moore (14), WR Kendric Pryor (19), OT Andrew Coker (79), OT Javon Foster (73), OL Jacob Bayer (69), OL Seth McLaughlin (68),DT Howard Crosss III (95), ED Isaiah Foskey (51), LB Liam Anderson (45), LB Antwaun Powell-Ryland (56), CB Jalen Davis (35), CB Bralyn Lux (21), S Russ Yeast (39)
Practice squad IR (1): OL Jaxson Kirkland
IR (7): QB Joe Burrow (IR-R), TE Mike Gesicki, OL Matt Lee, OL Cordell Volson, ED Shemar Stewart, LB Shaka Heyward, S Daijahn Anthony (IR-R)
PUP (1): TE Erick All
Suspended (1): WR Ja’Marr Chase
The Bengals’ reserve lists feature some of the biggest names on the team’s roster, including the aforementioned Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase.
Besides one of the best QB-WR duos in football when available, the Bengals are down some other prominent players. They are also entering Week 12 without their top two tight ends from a year ago — Mike Gesicki and Erick All — as well as guard Cordell Volson, who started 51 games over the last three seasons, and first-round draft pick Shemar Stewart.
Bengals coaching staff
Head coach: Zac Taylor
Coordinators: Dan Pitcher (OC), Al Golden (DC), Darrin Simmons (SC)
As noted above, the seat has gotten noticeably hotter for head coach Zac Taylor. While he led Cincinnati to four straight winning seasons and a pair of AFC North titles from 2021 to 2024, the team is not looking particularly competitive this season. His decision to part ways with defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo this offseason has also not helped the team: the unit of Anarumo’s successor, Al Golden, has had all kinds of problems this year.
Maybe the Bengals’ ownership is patient (or unwilling to keep paying Taylor’s contract without him on the team), but it is clear some change is needed. The result this season has been a major disappointment beyond Joe Burrow’s injury.
