LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers are the 43rd team in MLB postseason history to trail 3-0 in a best-of-7 series. Of the previous 42 such instances, 32 ended in a sweep. The Brewers can clinch a pennant as early as Thursday night in Game 4 of the National League Championship at Dodger Stadium.
“We’ve just got to be better as an offense, put together better at-bats with runners in scoring position,” said catcher Will Smith, who drove in both Dodgers runs in Game 3 on Wednesday, one of only three run-scoring
hits by the Dodgers in seven games this postseason. “Just get back to ourselves, keep fighting, and win one game at a time. That’s how we’re gonna get back in this.”
You don’t have to go very far back for the last such sweep, as the Dodgers swept the Brewers just last year. This is only the eighth time a team that got swept faced the same team the next year in the postseason. Only one of the previous seven teams to have been swept won the rematch the next year. In 1922 the New York Giants swept the New York Yankees in the World Series, then in 1923 the Yankees beat the Giants in six games.
Milwaukee is in a much stronger position this year, so let’s get back to the teams up 3-0. Forty two previous instances, 32 sweeps. Of the remaining 10 instances, six times a team was able to win once before falling in five games.
Teams trailing 3-0, then losing in 5 games
- 1910 World Series: Cubs won Game 4 at home, lost Game 5 to Philadelphia A’s
- 1937 World Series: Giants won Game 4 at home, lost Game 5 to Yankees
- 1970 World Series: Reds won Game 4 at Baltimore, lost Game 5 to Orioles
- 2016 ALCS: Blue Jays won Game 4 at home, lost Game 5 to Cleveland
- 2017 NLCS: Cubs won Game 4 at home, lost Game 5 to Dodgers (Kiké Hernández hit 3 home runs)
- 2024 World Series: Yankees won Game 4 at home, lost Game 5 to Dodgers (comeback from down 5-0)
That’s 38 out of 42 teams trailing 3-0 to lose by Game 5. Historically, not only is this NLCS basically over, but it’s overwhelmingly likely to end in Los Angeles on Thursday or Friday.
“I believe in this group, the staff, the clubhouse and guys in here,” right fielder Kyle Tucker said. “I think if there’s a team to do it, it’s this team. It’s not going to come easy, obviously.”
Two more 3-0 trailers won two games before succumbing, and they happened in back-to-back years.
Teams trailing 3-0, then losing in 6 games
- 1998 NLCS: Braves won Games 4 and 5 at home, lost Game 6 in San Diego
- 1999 NLCS: Mets won Games 4-5 at home (the walk-off “grand slam single”), lost Game 6 in Atlanta
These are the series of saving faces, and the path for the Dodgers to not suffer the ignominy of seeing their season end in front of the home fans in Los Angeles. Still, it’d take two more wins from a team that can’t seem to scrounge together two big hits in the same game at the moment.
“At the beginning of this year we set out to do something historic,” third baseman Max Muncy said. “It looks like we’re going to have to make a little more history if we want to accomplish that.”
Of those first 42 teams to trail 3-0, we’ve now seen what happened to 40 of them. There are two tiers left.
Team trailing 3-0, then losing in Game 7
- 2020 ALCS: Astros won Games 4, 5, and 6 vs. Rays, then lost Game 7
This was during the pandemic-shortened season, and the ALCS was played entirely at a neutral site, at Petco Park in San Diego, in front of no fans. The Rays had “home-field advantage,” which for this series meant they batted last in Games 1-2, and Games 6-7. This was a reasonably close series despite Tampa Bay being up 3-0, and the Astros clawed back with a pair of 4-3 wins. Houston won 7-4 in Game 6, the highest-scoring contest of the series. But the Rays avoided the shame of blowing a 3-0 lead with a 4-2 win in Game 7.
Team trailing 3-0, then winning the series
- 2004 ALCS: Red Sox won Games 4-5 at home, then beat Yankees in Game 6-7 in New York
Only the 2004 Boston Red Sox survived, winning four straight to stun the New York Yankees in the American League Championship Series. Roberts famously stole a base in the ninth inning of Game 4 at Fenway Park and scored the tying run to keep the series alive.
Roberts still gets asked about that steal constantly, including during the 2024 World Series (up 3-0 on the Yankees) and 2025 NLCS (up 3-0 on the Brewers). He was asked about those Red Sox being down 3-0 both before and after Wednesday’s Game 3 of this year’s NLCS.
He was asked prior to Game 3 if he ever pulls out video of his stolen base to show his team.
“Absolutely not,” Roberts said, laughing. “Then I’ll lose them. I don’t know if some of those guys even know I played. When times get tough, I just kind of go the other way and get more lax and have fun with the guys, just want to slow down.”
Getting loose, like say, challenging Hyeseong Kim to a rase on the bases before Game 6 of the 2025 World Series in Toronto with the Dodgers trailing three games to two?
The Dodgers, who won those two games in Toronto to win another title, since 2016 under Roberts are 15-7 (.682) when facing elimination, while the rest of MLB during that time is 84-105 (.444) in such games. They’ve won their last four elimination games, going back to Games 4-5 of the 2024 National League Division Series against the San Diego Padres.
Now the Dodgers have to beat the Brewers four games in a row, a losing streak Milwaukee has not seen since April.
“We have to win four in a row against a really good team,” infielder Miguel Rojas said. “I just feel like we need to have a sense of urgency of winning every single pitch, starting tomorrow with pitch one. We have no room for error.”
“It’s certainly possible. I’ve lived it, and I think the thing is that our guys have been battle-tested, as was that team I was a part of. I think the mindset has to be — and teams have been down before 0-2, 0-3 — it’s just you’ve got to win tomorrow,” Roberts said Wednesday. “It’s an elimination game. We’ve played in a lot of elimination games. We’ve just got to get a win. We’ve got to find a way to build some momentum, and it takes all of us.”
