It’s been a few weeks since I’ve done a full eight-game preview piece, so I’m a little rusty. Forgive me if my writing and/or analysis isn’t as sharp as usual.
Let’s dive in.
Thursday, Feb. 26
Bryant @ UMBC (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
- Projection: UMBC 75.8, Bryant 62.6
Lest we forget, it was only a month ago when Bryant took down UMBC in a dramatic 79-74 overtime victory at the Chace Athletic Center. Since then, the Retrievers have established themselves as arguably the AmEast’s best, while the Bulldogs got swept by the cellar-dwelling Binghamton Bearcats.
In the first meeting, the Bulldogs dumped
the ball down low to its bigger wings and let them muscle the undersized Retrievers into 40 points at the rim — it was the only time all season they scored more than 40 paint points.
Could they do that again? Potentially. But UMBC’s rim defense has improved substantially since the Jose Roberto Tanchyn breakout. With the Spaniard on the court, UMBC allows six fewer 2-point field goal attempts per 40 minutes.
That said, JRT was bullied by Keegan Harvey in the first meeting. But a platoon of Riley Jacobs and an improved Tanchyn could be the antidote for that.
Bryant’s defense has fallen off a cliff, but the Bulldogs have been particularly unlucky on that side of the rock. Their past three opponents have shot a combined 24-for-44 (55%) from beyond the arc.
While I still somewhat believe in the Bulldogs’ ability to switch against UMBC’s electric guard trio, if they want to win this game, they’ll need the regression train to come flying into Baltimore.
TLDR: Most interested to see if UMBC’s interior defense has really turned a corner, or if Bryant’s length can still expose the Retrievers’ one big weakness.
New Hampshire @ Binghamton (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
- Projection: New Hampshire 71.6, Binghamton 70.2
If there ever were a spot for Binghamton to pick up its first non-Bryant conference win (boy, that has to sting if you’re a Bulldogs’ fan), this would be the spot.
In the first head-to-head meeting, the Bearcats blew an 18-point second-half lead before Jackson Benigni missed a potential game-winning free throw at the end of regulation. They ultimately lost in triple overtime, dropping to 0-6.
Since then, New Hampshire has unfortunately reverted to its typical form, losing six straight. It’s mostly been from cold shooting, as it took plenty of inside-out 3s out of its post-heavy offense, and it shot 44-for-157 (28%) from beyond the arc during this stretch.
Schematically, this game will almost certainly be the frontcourts smashing into each other as hard as they can underneath the basket. However, Wes Peterson Jr. and Zyier Beverly might have a slight advantage in the rematch, given that Comeh Emuobor could be on the shelf. Still, they’ll have to keep Belal El Shakery from obliterating the offensive glass again — he grabbed seven of the team’s 18 in the first meeting.
TLDR: Like the spot for Binghamton if it can keep New Hampshire off the boards.
Maine @ Albany (6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
- Projection: Albany 69.4, Maine 62.9
I don’t think we’ll see a repeat of the first meeting, when Maine squeaked by Albany 52-49 after both teams missed every possible jumper (combined 7-for-37 from 3, or 19%).
Maine’s offense has looked far more competent since Logan Carey and Mekhi Gray have evolved into half-decent dribble creators in Chris Markwood’s ball-screen motion offense. It’s taken a ton of pressure off of TJ Biel’s shoulders. Still, I don’t love how the Black Bears’ offense matches up with Dwayne Killings’ amoeba zone coverages.
Albany can beat Maine’s extended pressure defense. Amir Lindsey can navigate the on-ball pressure, and the Danes can live on the offensive glass. However, you’d love to have Zach Matulu and Abdoulaye Fall for this rematch, given that duo could really create in the middle of Markwood’s 2-3 zone.
TLDR: Might come down to whoever is healthy for Albany.
UMass Lowell @ Vermont (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
- Projection: Vermont 78.5, UMass Lowell 70.0
Lowell’s offense is on a tear, but this seems like a perfect letdown spot against Vermont’s much-improved defense. The Catamounts have been far better against the dribble, and the interior defense is strong with Noah Barnett healthy. They are also really packing it in and forcing opponents to beat them over the top, which is Lowell’s biggest weakness — although the River Hawks haven’t missed over the past two weeks (29-for-65, 45%). The closest comp to Vermont’s defense is NJIT, which held the River Hawks to 56 points in their most recent loss.
Still, the Hawks don’t shoot many triples, as they’re far more comfortable at the rim and in transition. The Cats should shut down both options, leaving Lowell in a tough spot, given that they play zero defense.
TLDR: Feels like a double-digit Catamount victory.
Saturday, Feb. 28
UMBC @ UMass Lowell (1 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
- Projection: UMBC 75.9, UMass Lowell 71.9
Lowell’s offense operated fine against UMBC in the first meeting, but the River Hawks just couldn’t make a jump shot (4-for-24 from 3, 17%). If they make a few more, they could compete with the Retrievers in Lowell.
Still, the Retrievers’ offense operated to perfection against Lowell’s useless dribble defense, and with UMBC’s improved interior defense and rock-solid defensive rebounding, the Hawks’ margin for error is thin here.
TLDR: Lowell can keep up if it makes its 3s, but I’m not really buying the River Hawks’ chances.
Maine @ Binghamton (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
- Projection: Binghamton 66.23, Maine 66.21
It’s hilarious how close I project this game.
Call me crazy, but I like Binghamton’s chances.
You can easily beat Maine’s defense by cutting behind the pressure, and nobody does that better than the Bearcats. Jeremiah Quigley should hit Peterson and Beverly on rim-running cuts all night long.
At the same time, the Bears really only won the first meeting by shooting 11-for-22 (50%) from deep while the Bearcats shot 3-for-11 (27%). Any amount of regression, and we’re looking at a tooth-and-nail type of game.
Of course, there are two major problems.
First, Quigley and Co. have to avoid coughing the ball up and giving Maine easy run-out buckets. Binghamton had 16 in the first meeting, including eight from its star guard.
Second, Quigley and Co. have to find a way to counter Markwood’s 2-3 zone. Maine shifted into that look on 42 possessions in the first meeting, holding Binghamton to 35 points (.83 PPP).
TLDR: There are two ways this game could go. If Binghamton creates on rim-running cuts while Maine shoots poorly, the Bearcats win. If Binghamton can’t solve the zone and gifts Maine plenty of fast-break points off turnovers, the Black Bears win.
New Hampshire @ Albany (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
- Projection: Albany 73.5, New Hampshire 68.2
New Hampshire won the first head-to-head meeting, 80-72, but I see several things flipping in the rematch.
First, Albany was without Matulu and Jaden Kempson in that game. The Danes should get at least one of them back for the rematch.
Second, New Hampshire made a whopping 15 of its 35 3-point attempts (43%), while Albany shot 4-for-14 (29%). Disregarding those splits, Albany’s offense actually looked cleaner — the Danes’ dribble creation was better than the Wildcats’ post creation.
Third, and speaking of post-creation, Emuobor was the KenPom MVP of that first meeting, and he could be unavailable for the rematch.
TLDR: All else equal, I think Albany squeaks by.
NJIT @ Bryant (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
- Projection: NJIT 71.3, Bryant 68.9
The Thursday bye came at a great time for NJIT, as the Highlanders will have a major rest and prep advantage in a huge bounce-back spot off back-to-back losses.
I am slightly worried about NJIT’s interior defense, which was thoroughly exposed against Vermont last Saturday and has shown some cracks in recent weeks. However, the ‘Landers abused Bryant’s offense in the first head-to-head meeting, and no Bulldog could stop SebRob off the bounce.
TLDR: The spot is too good for NJIT, even on the road. I think the ’Landers roll.
