Friday Night Lights! It’s rather strange to imagine watching a college football game on a Friday night in September. Given that we play at least one game on a Friday every year, it’s not a stretch, but what else is anyone going to do on Black Friday anyway? Does anyone still shop for things in person anymore? I spent enough time in retail to avoid any place where shopping could occur that day, but now I have to deal with a compressed week for pumping out articles in Week 4? Not sure I like this tbh,
though it does free up a Saturday for golf…
If you’ve been reading my articles long enough you may remember that my father is a Rutgers graduate, so I’ve always had a minor affinity for the Scarlet Knights, even after they moved to the B1G. This year, however, that presents a bit of a problem, because they appear to be, well, kind of good. I mean, sure, they haven’t really played anyone this year, but the Ohio team that took them to the brink also looked pretty decent in the Horseshoe last weekend, even if only for a half. I’m not sure that either UAlbany or UMass would have even sniffed the 50 yard line, much less the endzone, against OSU. But hey, that’s why they play the games right?
Let’s see what the numbers have to say.
Series History
The Hawkeyes lead the all-time series with Rutgers, 4-0, dating back to 2016 when Rutgers joined the Big Ten alongside Maryland in the great conference expansion grab for television markets.
In four meetings, Iowa has allowed Rutgers to score a total of 17 points – all of them being scored in Piscataway. If that defensive dominance continues, this should be a comfortable evening for the Hawkeyes. But 2025 feels different, and frankly, I’m not sure our defense is quite ready to carry the load the way Phil Parker’s units have traditionally done. Greg Schiano has never beaten Iowa (0-2), but I’m also not sure he’s had a team with this much talent since he came back to Rutgers. Sure, he’s had some pieces here and there, but he’s got an experienced QB (who was smart enough to leave the Golden Fleck’s), two RBs who are averaging more than 5 ypc, and three pretty solid WRs. The defense is not in a great place atm, but neither is Iowa’s offense.
Offense
Iowa - 335.7 ypg (121.7 passing, 214 rushing), 31.3 ppg Rutgers - 461. ypg (296.3 passing, 164.7 rushing), 46.3 ppg
Mark Gronowski has looked better each week as a passer, finally showing some of that South Dakota State magic against UMass, going 16-of-24 for 179 yards and two touchdowns through the air (and that completion number should have been better, as there were at least 4 drops from the WR corps), and adding another TD on the ground. Rutgers, on the other hand, has been putting up video game numbers, particularly through the air. Athan Kaliakmanis has been connecting consistently with his receivers, and the Scarlet Knights’ passing game ranks 24th nationally, Iowa’s passing attack is 126th. Fortunately, what Iowa has lacked in passing, they’ve made up for on the ground (and Rutgers is pretty bad against the run), and it sounds like we’ll have Kamari Moulton back in the lineup Friday night (even if we’re trading him for Xavier Williams).
ADVANTAGE: PUSH
Defense
Iowa - 178.0 ypg (120.3 passing, 57.7 rushing), 10 ppgRutgers - 342.7 ypg (194.0 passing, 148.7 rushing), 19.3 ppg
Iowa has the edge here. With a handful of new starters, Iowa’s defense has been dominant to start the season. 177 yards allowed against UAlbany, 204 yards allowed to Iowa State, and they held UMass to just 119 total yards. Athan Kaliakmanas may be good, but I’m pretty sure he’s not as good as Rocco Becht, and I doubt that Rutgers RBs are as good as Hansen/Sama. Yeah, they haven’t forced any turnovers yet and their sack totals are still a little low, but they’re not giving up many yards or points, which is what really matters.
Rutgers defense is, to put it nicely, sieve-like. Remember, their 342.7 yard average was earned against Ohio, Miami (OH) and Norfolk State (FCS). Now, they only gave up 220 yards against Norfolk state, but they also gave up 440 yards to Ohio and another 368 to Miami (OH). They are vulnerable in the air and on the ground, and I feel like Iowa’s offense is just getting ready to click.
ADVANTAGE: Iowa
Special Teams
Iowa - 47.9 ypp, 85.7% fgm, 22.2 ypkr, 29.8 yppr Rutgers - 43 ypp, 100% fgm, 20.8 ypkr, 14.3 yppr
The kicking game had a rough night Saturday, but I don’t expect Drew to go into a slump and it’s not Rhys’ fault that nobody bothered to block that guy off the right edge (also, the snap wasn’t great). But you know who had a night? The Jet is back, or at least he was Saturday. I’ve seen quite a few punts returned for TDs, but I’m pretty sure I’ve never seen one that featured an over-the-shoulder catch while moving backwards. I mean, 236 APYs and 2 TDs is probably the best night he’ll ever have.
Rutgers’ special teams are fine, they do their job, but there’s certainly been nothing to write home about. Jai Patel is solid, and currently only the record for most consecutive FGs made in school history, but this isn’t a repeat of the Taylor/Simkowsi matchup from ‘23.
ADVANTAGE: Iowa
Numbers to Watch
3 – Antwan Raymond has been Rutgers’ ground game catalyst, averaging over 80 yards per game and providing the physical presence that complements their improved passing attack. His 5 rushing touchdowns through three games show his red zone effectiveness.
9 – Ian Strong has emerged as Kaliakmanis’ top target for Rutgers, providing the consistent receiving threat that has been missing from Scarlet Knights offenses in recent years. His chemistry with the quarterback from their shared experience has been evident through three games.
11 – Mark Gronowski’s 179 passing yards against UMass represented significant improvement after entering that game with just 127 passing yards combined in his first two contests. The South Dakota State transfer is starting to play looser and more confident as he adjusts to the Big Ten level, though he’s still finding his rhythm.
16 – Athan Kaliakmanis earned a spot on the 2025 Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award watch list and has been the catalyst for Rutgers’ improved offensive play. The senior quarterback brings experience and arm talent that previous Scarlet Knights quarterbacks have lacked, posting a 134.22 passer rating that ranks 9th nationally.
28 – Kamari Moulton returns to the lineup and will immediately be called upon against a pretty bad Rutgers rushing defense. The Oline didn’t look great against UMass, but I have a feeling that he’s going to have some decent sized holes to run through, especially if we can get the passing game going early like we did against UMass
Lines
Spread: Iowa -2 – 2.5 (opened at -3.5)
O/U: 45.5 points (opened at 42.5)
The line movement tells an interesting story. Rutgers is an underdog for the first time this season, but the public seems to be backing the Scarlet Knights at home, causing the spread to compress. That over/under sitting at 45.5 suggests Vegas expects a relatively low-scoring affair, which historically favors Iowa in this series.
Rutgers has better offensive stats but they haven’t faced a defense of this caliber yet. They’re playing at home on a Friday night, and Iowa’s only loss is a road loss (albeit in a rivalry game 2 hours from home). This feels like exactly the kind of game where Iowa needs to make a statement early and keep their foot on the gas.
If Gronowski continues his upward trajectory and the Iowa defense can force a couple of turnovers – something they haven’t done in five consecutive games – the Hawkeyes should escape Piscataway with their first Big Ten win. But if this game stays within one possession late, I’m still not super confident in the Hawk’s ability to run an effective 2 minute drill against a B18 defense.
As always, GO HAWKS!!!
