Northwestern had quite the offseason. The transfer portal was incredibly active: nine departures and eight additions. Head coach Chris Collins also had a rather small recruiting class with only three first-years.
The lack of continuity has landed Collins’ squad in an identity crisis, evident in losses to Illinois State and No. 18 Iowa State in exhibition play.
With all the changes from last year’s roster to this year’s rendition, it is hard to pinpoint how the ‘Cats will do this season and compare
to the rest of the Big Ten. There are a variety of outcomes for Northwestern, and how those outcomes look are drastically different.
To really understand this, here’s a look at the ceiling and floor for Northwestern.
Ceiling: Double-digit conference wins, on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament
This may seem a bit bullish, but Northwestern has a good amount of talent on the squad.
Northwestern’s three returning players — sophomore guard Jake West, junior guard Angelo Ciaravino and sophomore guard Phoenix Gill, showed a good amount of promise last season
If West can take the leap as the team’s first option and primary ball-handler, Northwestern will have someone to turn to in crunch time and a threat every team needs to focus on (like a Nick Martinelli from a season ago). Ciaravino will continue to be a do-it-all player while developing his jumper, while Gill can be NU’s spark plug off the bench.
Collins was able to bring in some solid talent through the portal to boot, including Jack Karasinski (Bellarmine), LA Pratt (Northeastern) and Luke McEldon (Mount St. Mary’s).
Karasinki is a bucket-getter, averaging 21.7 points per game last season as a three-level scorer. He scored 24 points in exhibition play and will consistently be looking to get his shot off.
Pratt is coming off a torn ACL he suffered last season, but before the injury, he looked incredibly strong, averaging 19.5 points and 4.5 assists. Pratt finding that groove again would mean the ‘Cats have one of the most lethal third options in the Big Ten.
And standing at 6-foot-10, McEldon provides some much-needed size to the rotation and an imposing paint presence that NU has missed since the Matt Nicholson days.
Then there are newcomers with huge upside that could prove to be invaluable for the ‘Cats, like Okku Federiko (Drake), Ryan Soulis (Columbia), incoming first-year Symon Ghai, Aleksej Kostić (BYU) and incoming first-year Jayden Hodge. Federiko averaged one block per game last year and will be a great rim deterrent. Soulis is a foil of McEldon as a force in the paint on both ends of the floor. I didn’t expect Ghai to get much burn in his first year, but Collins seems to trust the 7-footer, who will cause immense problems for opposing teams due to his size. Kostić will provide sharp shooting from behind the arc, being a vital outlet to kick out to when the defense collapses.
Hodge is the biggest wild card, as he is coming off a torn ACL in his senior year of high school. But if he comes back 100% healthy, his athleticism will transition seamlessly to the Big Ten, which will allow him to be a pest on defense and get out on the break.
If all of this talent meshes during conference play and continues to develop further, Northwestern will have the ability to be compete with anyone.
Offensively, Northwestern will be able to space the floor with Kostić, Krasinski and West — all 35% three-point shooters last year — allowing slashing guards like Pratt to attack the rim and kick to open shooters if need be. L.A. was incredibly strong at this in his limited play last year, averaging 4.5 assists per game. McEldon, Federiko and Soulis all averaged roughly 4.5 rebounds per game each, and Ghai’s length enables him to create second-chance opportunities as well. The ‘Cats could have a variety of ways to put the ball in the hoop, make plays and crash the glass.
Defensively, players like Ciaravino, Gill and Hodge are solid to elite wing defenders, consistently guarding the opposition’s best players. The rim will always be contested with the size on NU’s roster, with three players standing at 6-foot-10 or taller. Beyond that, Collins will develop and innovate his defensive scheme that will make it hard for opposing teams to operate on the perimeter.
If all these pieces come together, Northwestern can be incredibly competitive in the Big Ten, beating teams it’s supposed to beat and even pulling off an upset or two. The Wildcats could certainly have an opportunity to be playing basketball in March if all the puzzle pieces fit.
Floor: 1-3 conference wins and bottom of the Big Ten
On the other hand, Northwestern could be absolutely putrid.
As seen in the Iowa State game, Northwestern could be incredibly inefficient, shooting 19-for-58 from the field and 7-for-30 from three. The team was only able to get to the free-throw line 13 times. If the offense is unable to find a flow, it places most of the offensive burden on West or Ciaravino and allows opposing teams to key on shutting down the ’Cats beste scoring options.
The team may also find it difficult to move the ball around. Northwestern had an 18:20 assist-to-turnover ratio against Illinois State, and it only slightly improved to 12:11 against Iowa State. If the team turns the ball over, can’t create open looks and is forced into isolation, the offense will get stagnant and continue to be inefficient.
Furthermore, Northwestern was out-rebounded in each of the exhibition games. The really concerning part about this was the amount of offensive rebounds given up. Illinois State grabbed a bewildering 18 to Northwestern’s nine, while Iowa State and NU each had 12. If the ‘Cats want to be able to space the floor, they need to rely on their big men to grab offensive rebounds to create second and third chances. And on defense, its imperative for them to box out and use their size to prevent those same opportunities to opposing teams.
Speaking of defense, Northwestern could be the worst unit in the conference, and one of the worst in the nation. There are a lot of weak points to address amongst the first unit. Karasinski was on the worst-rated defense in the country last season, according to EvanMiya, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Karasinski was also rated as the second-worst defender on the team. West and Pratt also are not plus defenders by any means either. All three of them could be targeted and matchup-hunted to create easy offense for opponents.
Meanwhile, the Wildcats’ strong defenders on the team — Ciaravino, Gill and Hodge — can be liabilities on offense. Ciaravino and Gill have not been the most prolific three-point shooters. To his credit, Ciaravino has found his groove putting the ball on the floor and finding his mid-range shot, scoring 25 points across the two exhibition games on 12-of-21 shooting from the field. Hodge is recovering from an ACL tear, and it remains to be seen how he recovers and how he will adjust to Big Ten play.
Descrepancies like this could force Collins to play incredibly imbalanced lineups that don’t work well together. Teams will look to pick on NU’s weaker defenders and force any unproven offensive talent to score. From there, frustration builds, and the team identity crisis continues to manifest itself.
All these factors put together could lead to Northwestern being one of the worst teams in the conference alongside teams like Penn State and Minnesota. It may end up being yet another long season for ‘Cats faithful.
