The titans of small market midwest teams tangle for a three-game series in Milwaukee this week.
The Guardians are 38-32 with a -3 run differential, 22nd in wRC+ at 94, seventh in baserunning runs above average at 2.8, 12th in defense at -6.1, sixth in starting pitcher ERA at 3.80 (4.16 FIP), and 11th in bullpen ERA at 3.68 (3.61 FIP).
The Brewers are 43-26 with a +112 run differential (second-best in MLB behind the Dodgers), third in wRC+ at 107, 10th in baserunning runs above average at 2.1, 21st
in defense at -14.8, third in starting pitcher ERA at 3.40 (3.49 FIP) and eighth in bullpen ERA at 3.51 (3.52 FIP).
On paper, this matchup doesn’t look quite as one-sided as the run differential would indicate, but it does require the Guardians to hit the ball better than they have in recent weeks to compete. The Brewers hit extremely well in the clutch with a 130 wRC+ with runners in scoring position and a 107 wRC+ in high leverage situations, while the Guardians have only an 84 wRC+ with RISP and an 83 wRC+ in high leverage.
MATCHUPS:
Game One, Tuesday, 7:40PM ET: Robert Gasser, LHP 6.38 ERA (7.24 FIP) vs. Slade Cecconi, RHP
Game Two, Wednesday, 7:40PM ET: Brandon Sproat, RHP 5.70 ERA (5.55 FIP) vs. Gavin Williams, RHP
Game Three, Thursday, 2:10PM ET: Shane Drohan, LHP 3.59 ERA (2.72 FIP) vs. Parker Messick, LHP
The Guardians definitely look to be getting a break here in the projected pitching matchups. Now, to see if advance scouting can help them adjust to some starting pitchers whom they have not seen before so they can take advantage.
The Brewers are led at the plate by Andrew Vaughn 172 wRC+, Jackson Chourio 161 wRC+, Jake Bauers 148 wRC+, Gary Sanchez 139 wRC+, Brice Turang 134 wRC+, Christian Yelich 116 wRC+, Garrett Mitchell 114 wRC, and William Contreras 113 wRC+.
The top Guardians hitters currently known to be healthy are Brayan Rocchio 113 wRC+, Travis Bazzana 111 wRC+, David Fry 106 wRC+, Kyle Manzardo 105 wRC+ and Rhys Hoskins 100 wRC+. Hopefully, Chase DeLauter’s 110 wRC+ can be added to the list above. We will know shortly!
It has been a rough June so far for Guardians’ hitters. If they can right the ship after a couple days off, this could be a fun series. If the June swoon continues… it won’t be pretty given the firepower of the Brewers’ offense.
