When the New Orleans Saints drafted quarterback Tyler Shough out of Louisville in the second round of the 2025 NFL draft many were left scratching their heads. Shough was 26 years old and had completed just one full season of college football in a six-year career and was rarely seen with a second-round grade on any pre-draft analyses. However, as we now sit at the start of the offseason for the Saints, Shough has solidified himself as the quarterback of the future and I would argue is even deserving
of Offensive Rookie of the Year. As it stands, the three players with the best odds to win OROY are Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan, Giants QB Jaxson Dart, and Shough. Each had great rookie seasons and should have their teams feeling good about the future, but I feel Shough was the best of them.
Why he should win over Jaxson Dart
Jaxson Dart had a very good rookie season for the New York Giants. In 12 games started he threw for 2,272 yards and 15 touchdowns with 5 interceptions on 63.7% completion, and also ran for 487 yards and 9 touchdowns. These stats did not translate into many wins however, as he went 4-8 as a starter and was 0/3 on potential game winning drives this year. Shough threw for 2,384 yards and 10 touchdowns with 6 interceptions and 67.6% completion in 10 games, 9 of which as a starter. Shough finished the year with a record of 5-4 as a starter for a team that finished 6-11 for the whole season and was 3/5 on potential game winning drives this year. Dart threw more touchdowns and fewer interceptions but also had a worse completion percentage and less yards despite playing two more games.
On paper Dart’s stats look slightly better than Shough’s, but the way Shough was able to consistently win games for his team while Dart continued to come up short in the same opportunities should be the deciding factor in the rookie of the year conversation. Dart also had some games where he simply disappeared, like a 33-yard 0 touchdown day against the Vikings. He never threw for 300 yards while Shough did so twice, and had only one game with a QB rating over 110.0 while Shough had three. Dart also had the luxury of being able to lean on the #5 rushing offense in the NFL this year, while Shough was pretty much the sole reason the Saints were able to move the ball for most of his starts, as they employed the 28th ranked rushing attack in the league.
Both Tyler Shough and Jaxson Dart are very promising young quarterbacks, but Shough had a bigger impact on his team this year and turned the Saints season around when he was named the starter. The Saints were one of the worst teams in the NFL at 1-7 before Shough took over and managed to finish over their projected wins on the season. Dart was the only Giants quarterback to win a game this year, but in two games with Jameis Winston in the middle of the season against the Packers and Lions the Giants finished with similar statistical outputs and results as they did with Dart. Shough was the only rookie quarterback this year to average over 200 yards per game, and finished with a higher average yards per game than stars like Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, and Lamar Jackson. Shough had the same amount of game winning drives as all other rookie quarterbacks combined and accounted for over a quarter of the games won by rookie QBs this year. Dart would be a worthy rookie of the year, but Shough elevated his team in a way Dart simply was unable to, and was able to get it done in the clutch more than any other rookie QB even came close to this year.
Why he should win over Tetairoa McMillan
The Panthers wide receiver also had a great rookie year, catching 70 passes for 1,014 yards and 7 touchdowns. Comparing a QB to a WR is hard, but at the end of the day the QB will always have more impact than a WR. The last three WRs to win rookie of the year were Garrett Wilson, Ja’Marr Chase and Odell Beckham Jr., all who had better rookie years than McMillan. The bar for a receiver for win rookie of the year has been set very high, and I just don’t think McMillan quite hit that bar.
Now yes, we should only judge things based on this year, but Shough still had a more impactful rookie season than McMillan. The Panthers offense did not suddenly become one of the best in the league by adding McMillan, as they still ranked 26th in passing for the year after ranking 30th last year. The Saints meanwhile went from the 23rd ranked passing offense in 2024 to 13th in 2025. McMillan had under 50 yards receiving in nearly half of his games this year and only eclipsed 100 yards twice. I am not here to disparage McMillan as he had a very good season, I just don’t think he rose to the level of dominance we have seen from other rookie receivers to warrant him winning over a quarterback that had five wins over his nine starts for a team that had won only five of their previous 25 games.
If I had to bet however, I think McMillan will win, simply because his stats looked the best on paper and relative to the rest of the league. But if we are talking about which rookie was the most valuable to their team on the offensive side of the ball this year, it was definitely Tyler Shough and I hope the voters recognize this and vote accordingly.
