Spencer Steer is fresh off his second consecutive season of below-par offensive production. His OPS+ dipped again, down from 96 in 2024 to just 94 in 2025, and since the beginning of the 2024 season he’s
hit just .231/.316/.406 in 1224 PA – a 95 OPS+ valued at a grand total of 2.0 bWAR (and 2.6 fWAR).
He even stopped running (as part of a larger overall trend under Terry Francona), his 7 steals in 2025 a far cry from the 25 he posted the previous year. And, he’s now potentially positionless, as rookie sensation Sal Stewart hit his way to the big leagues and has an inside track to 1B work since the front office made the odd decision to commit to Ke’Bryan Hayes long-term at the hot corner.
Therein lies the rub with Steer. The Reds don’t really have a natural position for him as he’s far from a natural in the corner outfield (and long ago got removed from the regular 3B/2B rotation), he hasn’t really hit that well for a while now, and on top of that he’s not even truly part of the ‘youth movement’ as he turns 28 in another month and a half.
What he’s also done in that time is pick up precisely the right statistics during his service time that the outdated arbitration models adore – homers, RBI, and (at least before this season) steals. So, the fine folks at MLB Trade Rumors have him estimated to earn a robust $4.5 million for 2026 in his first season of arbitration eligibility, meaning he’s no longer a league-minimum cheapo for the cheapo-oriented Cincinnati Reds ownership.
That’s an interesting number in the larger context of how the Reds have treated LF, however. It’s just a hair under what they threw at Austin Hays this year. It’s a tad lower than what the Reds threw at Tommy Pham and Wil Myers on similar throw it at the wall and hope it sticks contracts in their recent history of never actually addressing their corner outfield problems. Now, if Stewart truly is to be the future at some position in the infield, that almost automatically boots Steer elsewhere defensively, with LF the only spot that a) he’s really played before and b) doesn’t have someone else in-house standing in his way.
Boom. Done. The Reds have a solution to their 2026 roster logjam…if they’re committed to simply running it all back next year and hoping like hell it somehow gets better.
With Steer, we’ll get a litmus test for just how much the front office is willing to test the patience of the fans.
We’ve seen him be significantly better than his last two seasons, as his 2023 season (117 OPS+, ~3 WAR) was legitimately quite good, even though that featured a .318 BABIP he’s never approached again. We also know he battled a shoulder issue to begin 2025 that kept him limited to DH duties only for the first few weeks, weeks in which he posted absolutely abysmal offensive numbers – but after finally playing the field for the first time on April 20th, he hit a much more palatable .253/.327/.435 with 20 homers through the end of the year.
Penciling Steer in as the regular LF who’ll get time at 1B to make sure Sal’s not completely overmatched would be the very easy, very stock-issue solution for the Reds front office. They’ll cite his trio of consecutive seasons having hit 20+ homers and respect in the clubhouse as why they didn’t seek addition upgrades, and plenty of fans will be completely fine with that. Still, it feels like LF – which is where his best path to playing time next year is given the current roster – feels like the easiest place the Reds can upgrade without burying one of the players who is still part of their ‘youth movement.’
They aren’t going to block Hayes, obviously – not with the $36 million owed him over numerous years.
They aren’t going to block Elly, or even Matt McLain (yet).
Sal’s earned the right to play, and play he will early and often.
Noelvi Marte staked his claim to RF and did so with aplomb, and TJ Friedl once again showed he’s the second best offensive player the Reds actually can count on (while playing a fine CF).
Nick Krall has gone on record suggesting that there won’t likely be a major shakeup, and that ‘some guys need to step up’ in order for this team to actually take a tangible next step offensively. That can be said about a huge chunk of the roster, from Elly right on down the line, but it also very much applies to Steer, especially if he’s to be leaned upon in the middle of the order once again.
If the Reds did make an offensive-first addition, and if that’s in LF – where it seemingly has to be barring a major trade – that doesn’t even mean they have to deal Steer. There’s still the DH, where Krall has admittedly been a proponent of using to rotate all players through, and that paired with Steer’s reasonable versatility position-wise means he could serve in more of a utility role. Still, $4.5 million seems like a steep price for a frugal Reds club to pay for a player they’ve tried to overlap at every position possible, meaning I’ve got my eyes specifically on how they handle him this offseason as the indicator for what their larger plans truly are.
