I know some of you have been waiting for this moment. The NCAA Tournament is officially upon us. The First Four gave us two good games and a game-winning Tramon Mark middy.
Now, a whirlwind of upsets, buzzer-beaters, and cards being shredded is upon us.
As brackets are filled and dreams take flight, I am diving into a region-by-region breakdown, predicting every game from the first round to the last. We can’t give every matchup the microscope treatment.
So I have zoomed in on key matchups, and you all
can laugh as they go wrong, or stand in awe as they come true. Hopefully more of the latter.
I love waking up on Thursdays during the first week of March Madness, when you get a full day of basketball. I always have my highlighter ready, hoping I don’t have to use it. But usually about midway through, losses start popping up.
It is what makes this tournament special.
The South Region is built for Houston’s redemption
Houston sits at the #2 seed here, but don’t let the number fool you; they are as dangerous as any 1-seed out there.
- Best First Round Game: (7) Saint Mary’s vs. (10) Texas A&M. The Gaels want to slow this one down and play in the 60-75 range. Bucky Ball will want to play at a racehorse pace for 40 minutes. Whoever wins that battle wins the game. Analytics favor the defensive efficiency of Saint Mary’s, with Texas A&M being the better offensive team.
Regional predictions:
- Round 1: Florida over Prairie View/Lehigh; Iowa over Clemson; Vanderbilt over McNeese; Nebraska over Troy; VCU over North Carolina; Illinois over Penn; Texas A&M over Saint Mary’s; Houston over Idaho.
- Round 2: Florida over Iowa; Nebraska over Vanderbilt; Illinois over VCU; Houston over Texas A&M.
- Sweet 16: Florida over Nebraska; Houston over Illinois.
- Elite 8: Houston over Florida. The Cougars’ defense finally ends the Gators’ quest for a repeat.
The East Region is tailor-made for Danny Hurley
UConn slipped to a #2 seed after the Big East tournament, but its roster is built for April.
- Best First Round Game: (6) Louisville vs. (11) South Florida. USF is a dangerous mid-major champion. This is the “Upset Alert” game of the region, especially with Mikel Brown out for Louisville. While analytics point to USF’s three-point shooting, the key stats to watch here will be the rebounding edge of South Florida, who also loves to turn teams over. If Louisville can block out and hold on to the ball, they have the talent to easily win. But if a frog had wings, it wouldn’t bump its butt on the ground when it hopped.
Regional Predictions:
- Round 1: Duke over Siena; Ohio State over TCU; St. John’s over Northern Iowa; Kansas over Cal Baptist; Louisville over USF; Michigan State over NDSU; UCLA over UCF; UConn over Furman.
- Round 2: Duke over TCU; St. John’s over Kansas; Michigan State over Louisville; UConn over UCLA.
- Sweet 16: St. John’s over Duke; UConn over Michigan State.
- Elite 8: UConn over St. John’s. In a rematch of the Big East title game, Danny Hurley gets some revenge on Rick Pitino, ending the Red Storm’s season, one game before the Final Four.
___________________________________________________________
Be sure to check out FanDuel Sportsbook for NCAA Tournament odds!
___________________________________________________________
The West Region is primed for an Arkansas High-Octane Run, maybe
Arkansas is the #4 seed here, but they are peaking at the right time after winning the SEC Tournament, and Darius Acuff Jr. may be the best player on the floor in any game they play.
- Best First Round Game: (7) Miami (FL) vs. (10) Missouri. Two teams with nearly identical statistical profiles, the only difference is that Miami (FL) has a better win margin, +10 over Mizzou’s +2. This should be a nailbiter.
Regional Predictions:
- Round 1: Arizona over LIU; Utah State over Villanova; Wisconsin over High Point; Arkansas over Hawai’i; BYU over Texas; Gonzaga over Kennesaw State; Miami over Missouri; Purdue over Queens.
- Round 2: Arizona over Utah State; Arkansas over Wisconsin; BYU over Gonzaga; Purdue over Miami.
- Sweet 16: Arkansas over Arizona (The Upset!); Purdue over Gonzaga.
- Elite 8: Purdue over Arkansas. The Hogs use their speed to neutralize Purdue’s bigs, but it’s not enough to prevent Braeden Smith from outplaying Darius Acuff and knocking out John Calipari.
The Midwest Region is home to the upsets
Michigan enters as the #1 seed in the Midwest, and its length is going to be a nightmare for opponents, but they aren’t going far.
- Best First Round Game: (8) Georgia vs. (9) Saint Louis. This is a clash of styles. Georgia brings SEC athleticism, but Saint Louis (28-5) is the only team in the country with a top 5 effective field goal percentage and top 5 defensive field goal percentage.
Regional Predictions:
- Round 1: Michigan over UMBC/Howard; Saint Louis over Georgia; Akron over Texas Tech; Alabama over Hofstra; Tennessee over Miami (OH); Virginia over Wright State; Kentucky over Santa Clara; Iowa State over Tennessee State.
- Round 2: Saint Louis over Michigan; Alabama over Texas Tech; Virginia over Tennessee; Iowa State over Kentucky.
- Sweet 16: Saint Louis over Alabama; Iowa State over Virginia.
- Elite 8: Iowa State over Saint Louis. Cream Abdul-Jabbar’s run ends, but it was a spectacular one.
The Final Four: Indianapolis
The Semifinals
- Iowa State vs. Purdue: Iowa State has finally found the groove again after a bit of a struggle. Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson prove too much for Purdue, and the Cyclones move on. Winner: Iowa State
- UConn vs. Houston: This game has the potential to be the best game of the entire tournament. Two of the best coaches and best rosters in the game are going at it for a chance to play in the title game. If it happens, expect a masterclass in coaching from both sides. Kelvin Sampson is just a little better today. Winner: Houston
National Championship
- Houston vs. Iowa State: A battle for the ages. It comes down to the final minute, but the Cougars’ relentless pursuit of offensive rebounds and Kelvin Sampson’s defensive scheme finally bring a title to Houston.
And there you have it, folks, what I think will happen over the next month of basketball.
Tell me where I got it right and let me know where I got it wrong.
