Welcome back to BCB After Dark: the coolest spot for night owls, early risers, new parents and Cubs fans abroad. Come one in and cool off with us. We’ve always got room for a friendly face. There’s no cover charge. The dress code is casual. The hostess will seat you now. Bring your own beverage.
BCB After Dark is the place for you to talk baseball, music, movies, or anything else you need to get off your chest, as long as it is within the rules of the site. The late-nighters are encouraged to get the party
started, but everyone else is invited to join in as you wake up the next morning and into the afternoon.
Sorry we were closed last night, but it was kind of a hectic day around here. We warned you that might happen.
On Tuesday nights, I don’t do a movie piece. But I always have time for jazz, so let’s take a break for that now.
Tonight we’re featuring Jamaican pianist Monty Alexander performing one of the greatest Jamaican songs of all time, Bob Marley’s “No Woman, No Cry.”
Welcome back to everyone who skips the music.
I can’t stop thinking about the Cubs’ newest reliever, Ryan Zeferjahn. I think the Cubs traded for a player just before he’s about to explode and I was wondering if you feel the same.
I have to admit that I was only slightly familiar with Zeferjahn before yesterday. I’d seen him pitch once or twice and I knew he had nasty stuff, but that he also struggled with control. But I believe there are reasons to think that Zeferjahn has turned a corner this year towards becoming an elite closer.
Zeferjahn has always thrown hard and his four-seam fastball still averages over 97 miles per hour. He’s also got a sinker with little more movement on it that comes in at 96 mph.
But Zeferjahn’s big pitch is his hard-breaking sweeper, that is absolutely filthy. It has an outstanding 14.8 inches of break and 5.8 inches of “rise.” Since last year, he’s added about two miles per hour, from 83 mph to 85, and is commanding it much better. It’s also become his primary pitch, with him throwing it 37 percent of the time.
One other thing that Zeferjahn has done this year is junk is cutter, which he no longer throws. It wasn’t a good pitch and he didn’t command it well.
Here’s 90-seconds of highlights of Zeferjahn. They’re all good, but the first 45 seconds are from previous seasons and the second half are from this year. If you notice, this year’s pitches are tighter and appear much closer to the strike zone.
This year, Zeferjahn is 4-3 with four saves and a 3.66 ERA. He’s struck out a whopping 75 batters in just 51.2 innings. That’s a 33.5 strikeout percentage. Opposing hitters manage just a .163 batting average against Zeferjahn this year.
But what about the walks? Yeah, Zeferjahn has walked too many batters. Control has been an issue. In those 51.2 innings, he’s walked 32, which is a poor 14.3 percent.
But lets look at what Zeferjahn has done month to month
March/April: 30.0 K%. 11.4 BB%.
May: 20.4 K%. 20.4 BB%.
June: 41.8 K%. 21.8 BB%.
July: 39.5 K% 4.7 BB%.
Look at those July numbers. Small sample size, but that’s beyond elite. He’s also struck out four and walked no one in 1.2 innings in August.
So how does that translate to results:
March/April: 5.51 ERA. 2.36 FIP
May: 6.75 ERA. 9.63 FIP.
June: 0.66 ERA. 2.37 FIP
July: 2.53 ERA. 3.47 FIP
August is -1.70 FIP but it’s five batters.
So all of this is a small sample size, but Zeferjahn look to me like a very good but not quite elite reliever in the second half. The stuff is there for him to take it to that elite level as well.
It’s not just me who thinks this. See what MLB dot com’s stat guy Mike Petriello said about him today.
So tonight’s question is will Zeferjahn be the Cubs primary closer the rest of the season? We all know that the Cubs have been going with matchups in the ninth inning since Daniel Palencia got injured, but that’s out of necessity rather than a plan. The Cubs don’t have a shutdown guy in the ninth. Unless Zeferjahn is that guy.
Since the middle of June, Zeferjahn had been getting a lot more opportunities close out games in Anaheim. Now he only has four saves because how many save opportunities do the Angels get? But Fangraphs has Zeferjahn giving up a .108 batting average and a 549 OPS in “high leverage” situations this year.
So are you as enthusiastic about Ryan Zeferjahn as I am? Do you think he’ll get the majority of saves through the rest of the season?
Thanks for stopping by. It’s always good to see a friendly face. Get home safely. We need you around in October. Recycle any cans and bottles. Tip your waitstaff. And join us again tomorrow night for more BCB After Dark.
