For the most part, the Los Angeles Rams offense has been unstoppable since the bye week. Out of eight potential games, the Rams have scored 30 or more points in six of them. They have scored more than 40 points on three separate occasions. To put that in perspective, the 1999 Rams scored 40 points three times over the course of an entire season. This team did that in the span of eight games.
The Rams offense has been unstoppable over the last two months. They were really only stopped back in Week
11 against the Seattle Seahawks. In that game, the Rams scored just 21 points despite the defense creating four turnovers. That doesn’t even include that in the meeting with Seattle’s starting offense last year, the Rams had the most three-and-outs in a game under Sean McVay.
As much as the Sean McVay-Vic Fangio matchup gets talked about, the battle against Mike Macdonald has been intriguing as well. There isn’t another defensive coordinator who has had as much success stopping the McVay offense as Macdonald over the last two years. It’s been a back and forth chess match between the two coaches. McVay had his way with Macdonald when the teams met in 2023 in Baltimore. While the Seahawks lost the previous two games when the Rams played their starters, Macdonald gave McVay problems. On Thursday night, it was McVay who was dictating the terms.
What’s crazy is that in games in which the defenses have been the story, it’s been McVay who has come out on top. In games in which the Rams offense has had success, it’s been Macdonald’s teams that have won.
Much like the NFC West in 2013, it seems as if the Rams and Seahawks are on a collision course. In 2013, it was the Seahawks and 49ers. The two teams split the season series before meeting for a third time in the NFC Championship game. With the game in Seattle, the Seahawks came out on top in the final seconds, winning 23-17.
If these teams are set to meet for a third time in the playoffs, the Rams should be able to carry over some of the things that they did on Thursday into that matchup, specifically in the run game. During the first meeting, the Rams did not have a lot of success running the football. The Rams have a 47.8 percent rushing success rate this season and that was down to 31.8 percent in Week 11. That was especially the case when running out of 13 personnel and McVay ended up having to abandon it.
The Seahawks are unique in that they are able to match 13 personnel in nickel because of Nick Emmanwori. A lot of teams have to get into base because it’s the only way they can defend the run which leaves them open to getting beat in the passing game. The Rams were not able to do this in the first matchup against the Seahawks.
However, in this game, the Rams were able to operate out of 13 personnel and they had success. McVay made it a point to go after Emmanwori in the run game and it paid dividends this time around. This set the Rams up for a lot of second-and-short situations as they had a 70 percent rushing success rate on first down in the first half.
Early on, the tight ends dominated this matchup. Emmanwori is a good run defender because of his size. It’s why the Seahawks are able to play him in the box as often as they do. However, Emmanwori can have poor eye discipline and McVay has the ability to throw in a lot of smoke and mirrors.
Emmanwori had a 60.7 run-defense grade via PFF in this game which was his third-lowest of the season. By having success going at Emmanwori in the run game, the Rams were able to set up the pass as they have been able to do in other games. The Rams targeted Emmanwori five times in this game and completed the pass each time. While it didn’t count, you can see how hard Emmanwori bites on the play action as Terrance Ferguson gets open behind him.
That one got called back for ineligible player downfield. However, the Rams were able to go back to it later in the game. McVay did a great job of using Emmanwori’s eyes against him and that was evident with the Rams’ success with play action.
The Seahawks have the fifth-best defense against play action this season, allowing -0.1 EPA per play. They allowed 0.38 EPA per pass against play action in Week 16. Back in Week 11, the Seahawks allowed -0.46. That’s a 0.84 difference. The Rams had 11.7 yards per play when using play action which was eight yards more than the first matchup.
It’s certainly disappointing that the Rams weren’t able to get the job done against the Seahawks on Thursday night. Both coaching staffs will certainly adjust if these teams meet again. With that said, after struggling in the last two games against the Seahawks, McVay may have found something.
The Rams were actually able to find the explosive plays in the passing game and it starts by running the football. If the Rams can run the football, it opens things up against this Seahawks defense in the passing game. It’s a reason why the offense struggled more in the second half. The offense averaged 0.003 EPA per rush in the first half compared to -0.33 EPA per rush in the second half. With the run game gone, the play action passing also took a hit.
This is going to be a constant chess match between McVay and Macdonald as they continue to play against one another. Still, despite being healthy for most of the game, the Rams were able to move the ball at will against one of the NFL’s best defenses. The Rams may have lost, but there is something to build on here if the two teams meet again.
