Much has been made again this season over Astros manager Joe Espada’s performance. For the third straight year, Espada has been asked to take a highly injured roster filled with Triple-A players and get elite results.
In his first season, he was able to keep the team together through it’s first half struggles and lead them to a Division Title.
In his second season, he kept an injury ravaged team in the hunt all season, and missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker.
Now in his third season, and managing on the
final year of his contract, Espada has again had to deal with a team devastated by injuries in both importance and volume. The Astros record is not where fans or management want, but it is hard to win Major League games with half your roster being Triple-A talent.
Many media and fans alike have stated that they believe Espada is on the hottest of seats, and others have called for his outright immediate termination.
So exactly what kind of job has Espada been doing? The numbers (thanks to our friends at @TigersData) are going to surprise you:
This chart from @TigersData on X shows two different metrics. The first is Bullpen Situation and the second is Pinch Hitter situation.
In Bullpen Situation, the grade is based on going to the bullpen with runners in scoring position (RISP) and 2 outs, and whether or not the new pitcher stranded the runner(s) or allowed the inherited runner(s) to score.
In this situation, Joe Espada ranked 9th in MLB, with his move to a new pitcher stranding the runner(s) 15 out of 20 times.
In Pinch Hitter Situation, the grade is based on going to a pinch hitter with RISP and either the batter reached base or drove in at least one runner.
In this situation, Espada ranked 11th in MLB, with his pinch hitting decision being successful 7 out of 16 times.
That would cumulatively make him a Top 10 manager in MLB based on game altering decisions that managers are entrusted to make.
Now let’s peel the onion back a little further.
This chart from @TigersData shows the expected change in Win Probability that the manager’s decisions in those bullpen and pinch hitting situations created.
Here, you will notice that despite the fact Espada ranked 9th and 11th in Bullpen and Pinch Hitting actual success, the expected win probability added was negative, rating at -0.43. That left him 20th in the ranking.
How can this be?
It’s because Espada has been getting success with players who were not expected to succeed.
When considering the Astros injury-depleted roster, you must understand that often times, Espada has been required to make pinch-hitting decisions with Triple-A players more than any manager should be asked to. Yet, he has chosen the right player at a Top-11 rate.
He has chosen the right bullpen arm to be a stopper in an inning at a Top 9 rate, despite the injuries and underperformance of the bullpen that left it with an MLB-worst ERA through the first two months of the season.
Analytically, his choices have been expected to fail. They are succeeding.
Espada is maximizing the talent on his team, directly in the face of what the metrics say he should be getting from those plyaers.
Forget making chicken salad out of chicken you-know-what, he’s making Chicken Cordon Bleu.
Espada has the respect of the clubhouse, he knows his players, and he is getting the most from them.
Those are the marks of a manager who should be extended and appreciated, not one who should constantly have his job security or job worthiness questioned.
