The Arizona Wildcats and the Marshall Thundering Herd were fighting for different things down the stretch. The Wildcats hoped to host a regional. The Herd simply wanted to get into the tournament.
Arizona didn’t reach its goal. Marshall did but just barely. Both are trying to overcome very similar late-season disappointments that put them in those positions on selection day.
The Herd earned the second seed in the Sun Belt Conference tournament on the back of a 17-7 league record. They got to sit out
the first day and face 10th-seeded Coastal Carolina in the quarterfinals.
It didn’t seem like a big ask to advance to the semifinals. Marshall swept the Chanticleers in their regular season series. Single-elimination tournaments are tricky things, though. Coastal Carolina rose to the occasion and shut the Herd out 6-0.
It was part of a three-game losing streak heading into the postseason.
That stretch began in Huntington, W. Va. where MU took on James Madison to end the regular season. JMU was barely over .500 with a 25-22 overall record and a 11-9 record in SBC play. Marshall had faced much tougher competition.
The Herd hovered in the high 20s of RPI heading into the final two weeks of play. They got there not only because the Sun Belt is one of the stronger mid-major leagues but because they challenged themselves in nonconference play. They played RPI top 10 teams Florida and Florida State twice each. They also had a tilt against top 50 Georgia Tech.
They started the final weekend of the regular season on the right foot with a 7-3 win over JMU. Then the Dukes found their footing. They took the series with 5-3 and 5-0 victories to close out the weekend.
The Herd followed that with the upset loss to the Chanticleers that left them feeling vulnerable about their postseason position despite their high RPI.
“The Sun Belt is competitive and it has prepared us for the regional tournament if we are given the opportunity,” head coach Morgan Zerkle said in the program’s press release.
They did get that opportunity but just barely. Marshall was one of the last four teams chosen for the tournament.
Arizona had very different stakes but the Wildcats’ late-season difficulties were almost identical to those of their first opponent in the NCAA postseason.
UA was fighting for a better seed in the Big 12 Tournament and the right to host regionals. It also went on the road and dropped a series to an opponent that it probably should have beaten then bowed out to Arizona State in its first conference tournament game. The end result was traveling to the East Coast for regionals.
Both teams will try to get on track when they meet Friday morning at 11:30 a.m. MST. Both will try to get the bats going.
Arizona scored an average of 7.3 runs per game this year. That number actually increased in Big 12 play when the Wildcats averaged 7.9 per game. They won by run rule 20 times, including nine times against conference opponents. They set a program record with 10 straight run-rule victories, a streak that culminated with a run-rule win at Texas Tech with NiJaree Canady pitching for the Red Raiders.
Their offensive explosiveness deserted them late in the season. While that was understandable at LSU and Oklahoma State, it was more surprising at Utah. The Wildcats averaged 1.3 runs per game over their three-game losing streak against the Utes and ASU.
The Herd are not quite the offensive juggernaut that Arizona is, but they have some offensive firepower. Marshall averaged five runs per game over the course of the entire season. That dropped slightly to 4.9 during Sun Belt play.
Their recent offensive futility has been similar to their upcoming opponent, though. The Herd have averaged exactly one run per game over their three-game losing streak. All of those runs came in the first of the losses. They have been held scoreless in their last two games.
The two offenses score in very different ways. Marshall has just 14 players who have taken at-bats this season. Only nine of those have enough plate appearances to qualify for NCAA statistics.
The Herd do not hit for average. Just three players hit .300 or better and no one hits .400. They don’t take a ton of walks, either. Only two players have an on-base percentage above .400.
They do have power, though. The team has 89 home runs this season. Sydni Burko is responsible for 21 of those. Ava Blake follows with 17 and Bella Gerlach has 14. Diamond Leslie’s 10 long balls give the team four players in double figures.
Those numbers look like some Wildcat teams of old, but the current Arizona squad isn’t keeping up with its reputation as a home run offense. UA has just two players who have hit 10 or more home runs. Sydney Stewart’s 20 tied for second in the Big 12 this season. Grace Jenkins has 12.
Tayler Biehl and Emma Kavanagh are tied for third on the team with six each, although Kavanagh would likely have more if she had more than 70 at-bats this year. The sophomore hits a home run approximately once every 11.7 at-bats. That is just slightly behind the one per 10.9 at-bats for Jenkins.
Arizona has put pressure on pitchers with its ability to draw walks. Its speed puts pressure on defenses and allows runners to take extra bases. The team has forced 60 errors from its opponents this season largely due to the speed at the top of the order. In contrast, Marshall’s opponents have committed just 37 errors.
Stewart leads the Wildcats with .560 on-base percentage not only because she hits over .400. She has also drawn 41 walks this year. That led the Big 12.
While the Thundering Herd has just two players with on-base percentages of .400+, Arizona has five. If Anyssa Wild had qualifying plate appearances, that number would bump up to six.
Despite the relative lack of home runs, the Wildcats also have six players who slug .500 or better. Stewart leads the group with a 1.000 slugging percentage. Wild and Tele Jennings lack qualifying PA to be included, but they would push that number to eight.
Marshall has hit 25 more home runs than Arizona this year, but they have just four players slugging at least .500. That group is led by Burko at .812.
Marshall’s pitching will need to be on point if the Herd is going to pull off the upset. Its numbers suggest that’s possible.
MU features three pitchers who have at least 10 wins. Jules King leads the way with a 16-7 record. The junior has a 2.91 ERA in a team-high 149 innings. She averages more than a strikeout per inning with 156 strikeouts this season. Those come against just 44 walks.
Paige Maynard at 10-6 and Maddie Veal at 10-4 make up the rest of the trio. Both have about 100 innings of work this season. Maynard leads the team with a 2.80 ERA amassed over 105 innings. Veal’s 3.19 ERA comes in 96.2 IP.
The issue for the Herd is that both Maynard and Veal have allowed batters to hit for a solid average of .286 and none of the teams they faced in the Sun Belt come close to Arizona’s .345 team batting average. The best in the SBC was Troy at .315.
Marshall’s pitching numbers still compare favorably to Arizona’s. The best ERA on the Wildcats’ staff is the 3.32 of Jalen Adams. She allows batters to hit .261.
Will Arizona want to use Adams in the opening game with the high-powered Duke offense possibly waiting around the corner? It could be advantageous for the Wildcats to use No. 2 pitcher Rylie Holder even if she has to go up against Marshall’s ace.
The freshman has allowed opponents to hit .329 against her, but that number increased substantially when Big 12 play started. She allowed a .402 BAA in conference play. When she was pitching against teams that were more similar to Marshall, her batting average against was .255.
The biggest question for the Herd will be whether their season prepared them to face a team with the offensive and defensive prowess of the Wildcats. Their toughest games were played months ago during early nonconference tournaments. Arizona has faced top teams throughout the season.
The Wildcats played 19 games against the RPI top 25 this season, going 7-12. They had another five against teams ranked 26-50. They won all of those games to finish 12-12 against top 50 teams.
In contrast, the Herd played just four games against the top 25, although all four were against top 10 teams. They went 0-4 in those games. They had seven more contests against teams ranked 26-50. They went 4-3 in those matchups for an overall record of 4-7 against the top 50.
In the other dugout, Arizona must show that it can deal with the pressure. There was a great deal on the line in its last three games. That pressure showed in uncharacteristic strikeouts against ASU and a poor performance by the entire team in a run-rule loss to Utah. That pressure will stay in their dugout. They are expected to win. Marshall has nothing to lose.
Both teams need to show that the past two weeks were aberrations. Which squad can stare down its demons and walk away victorious?
