Series Timing.
The series timing is better than expected for the Diamondbacks. Recently, the Cardinals had a 3-game losing streak (17-19 June). Last season, they collapsed in July (8 wins, 16 losses), and this season they seem to be starting their collapse in late June.
Let’s compare the teams.
Offense. This season through 19 June, the Cardinals averaged more runs scored per game (4.55 vs 4.28 runs per game).
Runners Left On Base. This season through 19 June, the Diamondbacks left fewer runners on base per game (6.60 vs 7.27).
Defense. This
season through 19 June, the Diamondbacks had the better defense (19 vs 13 OAA, 35 vs 11 DRS)
Bullpens. This season through 19 June, the Cardinals had more shutdown performances by the bullpen (77 vs 71).
Starting Pitcher Matchups. This season through 20 June, the Diamondbacks had the most quality starts (30 vs 28). In this series, if the Diamondbacks starting pitching is good, the odds are good that the Diamondbacks win at least two games of the four game series.
Cardinals Player to Watch.
JJ Wetherholt is the Cardinals’ top prospect. In his debut season, he is playing second base. His defense is outstanding (13 OAA). His batting is outstanding (118 OPS+ with 10 homers). His baserunning is outstanding (2 runs created by his baserunnning, with above-average extra bases taken and above-average stolen bases). If the season ended today, he would likely win the NL rookie-of-the-year award.
Diamondbacks Player to Watch.
Brandon Pfaadt will return to the rotation. In the Majors, he has not started a game since April. Nevertheless, I feel positive vibes that he will return from the minors at his best. It will be a confidence booster that recently the Diamondbacks offense is on a hot streak ( 8 or more runs on 17, 19, and 20 June) and that he will face a pitcher who, in June, had an ERA over ten.
Pitching Matchups.
Monday, 4:45 PM MST.
Merrill Kelly vs Andre Pallente. In June, Pallente had the better ERA (2.41 ERA vs 8.27 ERA), and Pallente had more quality starts (2 QS vs 1 QS).
This matchup is advantage Cardinals.
Tuesday, 4:45 PM MST.
Eduardo Rodriguez vs Kyle Leahy. In June Rodriguez had the better ERA (2.86 ERA vs 6.00 ERA), and Rodriguez had more quality starts (2 QS vs 1 QS).
This matchup is advantage Diamondbacks.
Wednesday, 4:45 PM MST.
(TBD, possibly Brandon Pfaadt) vs Matthew Liberatore. In March/April, prior to pitching in relief, Pfaadt started 3 games. In his fourth start, he entered the game in the third inning and pitched 6.1 innings. In those four games, his ERA was 4.70. In those 4 games, he earned one quality start. If he had started the fourth game, it would have been a second quality start. On that bases, comparing Pfaadt and Liberatore, Pfaadt had the better ERA (4.70 ERA vs 10.45 ERA), and Soroka had more quality starts (2 QS vs zero QS). Worth noting is that my expectation is that neither pitcher will be in the game at the start of the fifth inning. That is because Pfaadt is not stretched out, and 4.1 innings was the most innings that Liberatore pitched in June.
This matchup is advantage Diamondbacks.
Thursday, 4:45 PM MST.
Zac Gallen vs Michael McGreevy. In June McGreevy had the better ERA (4.30 ERA vs 8.85 ERA), and McGreevy had more quality starts (3 QS vs 1 QS). Worth noting is that Gallen allowed 9 earned runs in his latest start, which makes me think that the odds are favorable that Gallen will pitch better than indicated by his June ERA.
This matchup is advantage Cardinals.
