For the eighth straight season, a new NBA champion will be crowned this June. The New York Knicks have won eleven straight games after falling to 2-1 against the Hawks in Round 1 while the San Antonio Spurs have won two hard fought series vs. the Timberwolves and the defending champs.
Who raises the Larry O’Brien and looking ahead, what do the Celtics have to do to take down the champs next June?
Rich Jensen: I have the Spurs in six messy games.
The C’s best path to beat the Spurs is continued growth and perhaps the addition of one or two veteran players. I don’t think it’s sensible, as fans, to put the Spurs up
on a pedestal. The C’s are nothing to sneeze at, and will hit the next season with the league’s best one-two punch.
Grant Burfeind: Spurs in 7, partly because Adam Silver didn’t script Wemby in the Finals just to leave all that Game 6 MSG ticket money on the table. Have you SEEN what those seats cost? The league may send this series to seven out of fiscal responsibility alone.
Now, for the actual basketball reason: San Antonio has the best player in the series, and he happens to be the hardest player in the league to solve. The Knicks are deeper, older, more physical and built to make this series feel like a nightly dental procedure. Brunson has the ability to steal games, no doubt. KAT pulling Wembanyama away from the rim could swing stretches. OG and Hart will make every possession for the Spurs feel like trying to move a couch through a narrow hallway. But Wemby changes the math on both ends. Scratch that, Wemby is a new form of math altogether. He can erase the paint, rush shooters who think they’re open and still be the offensive hub San Antonio needs late. Add in Fox’s burst, Harper’s poise and Castle’s defense, and I think the Spurs survive just enough rock fights to win the series.
For the Celtics, beating either team next year starts with accepting what this Finals is showing them: the margins around stars have to be sturdier. Since the West is so loaded that it’s hard to predict who comes out next year, New York is probably the cleaner measuring stick. To beat the Knicks, Boston needs size, rebounding and enough functional strength to survive without bleeding extra possessions. If San Antonio is the matchup, they need multiple frontcourt bodies to bother Wemby, enough shooting to punish his help instincts and more consistent rim pressure so the offense doesn’t turn into five guys politely waiting behind the arc. The Celtics don’t need to adopt an entirely new identity, but they do need to get healthier, bigger and a little less dependent on shot variance if they want to be the last team standing in June.
Ian Inangelo: I think the Spurs are winning the Finals in 6 games over the Knicks.
I think the key to the Celtics beating them next year is doing something similar to what they did this season. Let Victor Wembanyama beat you from three-point range and slow down everyone else. Boston would need a big who can play defense on the perimeter and I think a Robert Williams reunion would be the key. He played pretty solid defense on Wemby during Portland’s first round series this year and I think he could be a solid option for this team.
Bill Sy: Spurs in 5 because TL;DR, but ultimately, I trust Castle and Wemby controlling Brunson and KAT. And if the path to Banner 19 goes through New York and San Antonio next season, the biggest question mark right now is obviously at center, but I’m not totally convinced that’s an area of need for Stevens to address this offseason. Conventional wisdom says that you have to upgrade Neemias Queta after he got wrecked by a hobbled Joel Embiid. However, I just don’t see a major swing the front office can make at the 5. Instead, they’ll put a premium at point guard — preferably someone that can also stay in front of Fox and Brunson — and again lean in on their depth, particularly on the perimeter with their wings.
Nirav Barman: I have the Spurs winning in 6 games. I think they’re deep and talented enough to really push this Knicks team despite not having as much experience. As long as they’re not too tired, they should be able to handle things.
San Antonio’s defense is excellent, even beyond the 7’4″ freak of nature on their roster. The Spurs were able to minimize the reigning 2x MVP, and contain the rest of the reigning champs’s offense too. If they can limit their turnovers, they have a good chance of snuffing out the Knicks as well. KAT’s ability to stretch the floor may be a more effective way to get Wemby out of the paint than Chet and Jaylin Williams, but it’s likely that Mitch Johnson will plan for that, and have a switch heavy defense that keeps Wemby close to the paint.
The Knicks might have more reliable offensive threats, but they also have less of them, and have had a looong break between games. Maybe that means they’ll just be more rested, but I would imagine a 7+ day period without a game could take a team out of rhythm. I think Brunson has proven his ability to show up in big games, as has OG Anunoby who should hopefully be fully healthy now. If the rest of the roster keeps up their level of play that helped them take care of the Sixers and Cavs in quick fashion, then I think this will be a very interesting series, but I don’t see New York’s defense being effective enough to win the overall matchup.
If the Celtics end up having to go through the Knicks next year, they’re going to have to become much better at containing Brunson at the point of attack, and defending pick-and-rolls when Brunson is forced to defer. Additionally, they’ll need to find a way to consistently open up the paint for themselves to get better looks at the rim, likely by upgrading their big men.
If the Celtics are going up against the Spurs, they’ll need some prayers on their side. Having a large, switchable team would go a long way, so the Jays are a great start. Hugo and Jordan becoming offensive threats would become critical, as would having a mobile two-way big (which doesn’t come around all that often.) On top of that, they’ll need their role players to capitalize on any and all open looks. The Jays need consistent, reliable support when the defense is focusing on them. I think you have to say that the Spurs are the better team, and considering how much younger and cheaper their roster is, that’s a scary thought. I do think that the Celtics can keep every game competitive, though – I just don’t see them winning a 7-game series without some significant improvements.
Jake Issenberg: It pains me to say it: Knicks in 7. The way to beat the Spurs is by bombing away from outside the paint. The Knicks have been scorching hot from three all playoffs and employ big, quick trigger shooters across the roster. Something that Chet Holmgren, and the rest of the OKC Thunder shooters are not. Towns is a skeleton key on offense in this specific matchup. KAT’s ability to either pull Wemby out of the paint or punish the Spurs on the offensive glass if Wemby is roaming off Josh Hart is going to be what tips the series in favour of the Knicks. The Thunder are not an elite rebounding team and were able to punish the spurs on the offensive glass at times. Between KAT, Mitchell Robinson, and Josh Hart, the Knicks have the personnel to mash the Spurs on that specific margin. On the other end, I think OG Anunoby is one of the only perimeter players in the league capable of giving Wemby trouble. I’m picking the Knicks in 7, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Spurs win the NBA Championship, however, I think the matchup favours the Knicks.
How do the Celtics reach the mountain top if it’s the Knicks and Spurs who stand in their way? Priority number one is upgrading the front court. Whether that’s Giannis, Robert Williams, or Jock Landale, the group needs to get more talented and more versatile. Next, Joe Mazzulla, the reigning coach of the year, needs to level up as a playoff coach, starting with updating the team’s offensive approach. The team has become too rigid. Dominating the margins is important and clearly drives winning, but there’s something missing when the Celtics get out of the 82 game season and into the paradigm of a 7 game series.
Jeff Clark: I’ll go with Spurs in 6. These things typically boil down to who has the most transcendent player with the perfect pieces around him. The Knicks have Brunson and KAT and some great defensive wings, but that strikes me as a very-good team, not a great one. The Spurs, on the other hand, have Wemby and a young, but very talented supporting cast around him. One might assume that it is a year early for them, but I don’t get the sense that the lights will shine too bright for them. After all, the biggest test was the Thunder and they were able to defeat them. I think the Spurs win their first title of the Wemby era, and frankly I’m a little concerned about what that means for every other team going forward, including the Celtics.
Robby Fletcher: I have the Spurs in 6, specifically coming back from 2-1 to win the series.
The Knicks are getting a third straight opponent coming off a 7-game series which is an obvious advantage, but the Spurs have the end-all No. 1 player in this matchup, and plenty of defenders on the perimeter to make life difficult for Brunson and company.
How does Boston win that matchup? With improved paint defense and better perimeter shotmaking, although if we’re being honest, is there really an answer to stopping Wemby? Probably not, but if you’re killing them from deep, that at least opens the door for dragging Wemby a little farther away from the paint.
Bobby Manning: I’m going Spurs in 7 despite going back-and-forth in my head. If Victor Wembanyama is playing like himself, the Knicks, and maybe nobody at this point, have an answer for his defensive impact. Never mind what he’s producing the other way. Between that, Mitchell Robinson’s injury and defensive questions for NY, I give San Antonio a slight, but not definitive edge. The Spurs also have to handle Brunson and Towns’ offensive attack, OG Anunoby’s defensive versatility and the Knicks’ more consistent bench. What I know for sure is that this could be the series for the ages, and despite how agonizing of a decision it’ll become, one of many reasons why I believe the Celtics need Giannis Antetokounmpo.
