In most sports, three games is not enough to really make any determinations about anything. It would be called small sample size. However, in college football, three games is a quarter of the regular season. So with the Tar Heels sitting at 2-1, lets make some observations from the first quarter of the season.
Offense
First Quarter Offensive MVP
- Demon June
- Jordan Shipp
- Caleb Hood
I gave June the nod here over Shipp, as June has taken advantage of his opportunity and literally run away with it. After not seeing any time in the first game, June has rushed
23 times in the past two games for 200 yards and a touchdown. His 8.7 yards per carry has him tied for sixth among all players with at least 20 rushes this season. He also has caught two balls for 19 yards. Filling in for the now-departed Omarion Hampton, June has more rushing yards than the rest of the team combined.
Shipp would probably be the choice here if not for June’s explosive last 2 games. Shipp was easily the best offensive player in the demoralizing TCU loss, finishing the game with four catches for 84 yards. Since then, he has caught 6 passes for 65 yards and two touchdowns, including one where he snagged a ball that was thrown high and then ran it in against Richmond. Shipp is responsible for a quarter of the Tar Heels’ total receptions and a third of its yards, while turning into the go-to receiver every offense needs to be successful.
I really struggled to find a third player here, and would not be opposed to other suggestions (such as Chris Culliver or maybe even Jake Johnson), but ultimately went with Hood for his versatility. In this three game stretch Hood has rushed 15 times for 46 yards and a touchdown. His 3.1 yards per carry rank second on the team. He also has four catches for 29 yards. Hood did not produce any stats in the game against Richmond and currently looks to be third, at best, on the running back depth chart behind June and Gause.
Player who needs to step it up over the next three games:
QB Gio Lopez
Lopez is the easy answer here, as the quarterback has been a mixed bag at best. Over three games he has thrown the ball 53 times for 343 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception. He has also rushed 27 times (second most on the team) for 74 yards, a touchdown and two fumbles — one of which was recovered.
Out of 139 qualifying quarterbacks, Lopez’s 58.5 completion percentage ranks 107th, his 6.5 yards per attempt ranks tied for 91st, and his quarterback rating of 127.8 ranks 91st. If the Heels have any chance of making a bowl game this season, Lopez is going to have to step it up.
Biggest Question to answer:
Can the offense consistently sustain drives?
In the first three games, UNC’s offense has had the ball 32 times. If we subtract end-of-half situations, that leaves us with 30 drives. Of those 30 drives, 13 ended in scores (43.3%), 10 ended in a three and out (33.3%), and five (16.7%) ended in a turnover of some kind (interception, fumble, or downs). Additionally, in 180 game minutes, the Carolina offense has had the ball for only 79 minutes and 28 seconds (44.2%). That is a lot of time for the defense to be on the field, and may explain some of the issues they are having late in games getting stops.
Now on a positive note, since the TCU game, UNC has had 19 drives, 11 of which ended in scores (57.9%), while only five ended in three and outs (26.3%), and three in turnovers (15.8%). Of course, this also comes with the caveat that the level of competition has also gone down since that game, but it is a positive nonetheless.
First Quarter Grade: C+
Defense
First Quarter Defensive MVP
- Andrew Simpson
- Kaleb Cost
- Mikai Gbayor
Andrew Simpson was an easy choice here. He not only leads the team in tackles with 22 but also has one of the four sacks tallied by the unit on the season. Simpson has played well in all three games and is showing why he was an important transfer pickup this past spring.
Kaleb Cost is fourth on the team in tackles with 13 and has one of the two interceptions this season (and would have two picks if not for a questionable DPI in the Richmond game).
Mikai Gbayor gets the third-place nod here over fellow linebacker Khmori House (18 tackles) and Melkart Abou-Jaoude (two sacks) with his all-around game. Through three games, Gbayor has 16 tackles (third most on the team), a sack, and a fumble recovery for a touchdown.
Player who needs to step it up over the next three games:
DB Marcus Allen
Allen gets the spot here as the guy that opposing offenses seem to be targeting on the outside. While tied with fellow DB Thaddeus Dixon with three pass deflections, teams are clearly doing their best to avoid Dixon, while throwing it at Allen. After an early DPI in the TCU game, Allen seems to be playing less aggressive to avoid penalties, which in turn is allowing his receivers to get more open looks. If Allen can start matching Dixon in shutdown capabilities, it would go a long way to helping the defensive line get more pressure and make it harder for opposing quarterbacks to slice the secondary apart.
Biggest Question to answer:
Can the defense continue to improve?
Much like the offense, the defense has improved since the opening loss to TCU. The defense currently ranks 53rd in points per game (though 12 of the points the defense “allowed” came off defensive touchdowns scored by TCU off turnovers. If you subtract those points, the defense moves up to a tie for 35th) and 70th in total yards allowed per game (72nd in rushing yards and 64th in passing yards).
Since the TCU game they have allowed only nine points (no touchdowns) and 470 total yards. The 4.5 points and 235 yards per game would rank second and 18th respectively. I get that the competition has been bad, but that is what teams ought to do early in the year against these kind of schools. Again, if UNC has any chance of making a bowl game, the improvements (whether real or perceived) that have occurred on defense need to continue.
First Quarter Grade: B-
Special Teams
First Quarter Grade: B
Rece Verhoff has been perfect so far this season on kicks. He is 4-for-4 on field goals with a long of 49 and 9-for-9 on extra points. His kicks have been straight, and there has been very little worry when he attempts a kick this season. Verhoff was a great transfer portal pickup from Marshall and is possibly the best kicker UNC has had since Connor Barth.
Punter Tom Maginness has punted the ball 14 times (tied for 21st nationally and tied for 4th amongst P4 punters) for an average of 40.8 yards per punt (84th nationally, 36th amongst P4 schools). His net average is 40.4 yards per punt, which means even though his kicks aren’t going great distances, teams are not having much success in returns.
On returns, the Tar Heels are averaging 20.7 yards on 7 kickoff returns and 10 yards on three punt returns (those numbers rank 67th and 58th, respectively). Our top kick returner is Jaylen McGill at 21.5 yards per return (48th in the nation), though Chris Culliver has returned it five times to McGill’s three. Will Hardy is our top punt returner with 28 yards on two punt returns.
Coaching
First Quarter Grade: C-
The coaching staff has not blown anyone away. The offense has looked vanilla thus far (thanks Freddie), though the game against Richmond did look better, while the defense has been solidish (considering what Steve Belichick has had to work with, this has been more impressive than the numbers may otherwise suggest), and special teams haven’t killed us (which should be expected from any Bill Belichick-coached team). On the recruiting side, the Tar Heels are still doing well with a top 20 class (top 4 in the ACC).
Overall Grade: C+
The TCU game was tragically (or comically, depending on your sense of humor) bad. The Charlotte game was a smidge better. The Richmond game looked like it should when a FBS team hosts a FCS team. The next three games will be very revealing as the Tar Heels take on three Power Four schools, two in conference and two on the road, who are a combined 6-2 on the season. How they do there will have a huge impact on how this season will probably finish up in Coach Belichick’s first season with the Tar Heels.
