Buffalo Bills Week 12 AFC playoff race rooting interests

How the Bills can keep pace in AFC playoff hunt this week.

Summarized by AI ⓘ

What is the story about?

Week 11 was much kinder to the Buffalo Bills than the previous few weeks. In fact, almost everything went their way starting with a big win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Orchard Park, NY. Several other key playoff-minded teams took losses during Week 11, helping the Bills move up one spot in the race for the postseason. There’s even a new name on top of the conference leader board this week with the Colts having been on bye.

Unfortunately, the New England Patriots still came away with a win thanks

to yet another crash landing by the New York Jets, That means that the Bills still trail by a game and a half in the AFC East and will need some help to regain the crown they’ve worn for the last five seasons.

Here’s a look at how things stand before Week 12 kicks off with Thursday Night Football between the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans.

AFC East Week 12 standings

New England Patriots (9-2)
Buffalo Bills (7-3)
Miami Dolphins (4-7)
New York Jets (2-8)

AFC Playoff Picture heading into Week 12

Denver Broncos (9-2)
New England Patriots (9-2)
Indianapolis Colts (8-2)
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)
Buffalo Bills (7-3)
Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4)
Houston Texans (5-5)
Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)
Baltimore Ravens (5-5)
Miami Dolphins (4-7)
Cincinnati Bengals (3-7)
Las Vegas Raiders (2-8)
New York Jets (2-8)
Celveland Browns (2-8)
Tennessee Titans (1-9)

The Bills can’t reclaim the AFC East’s top position in Week 12, but getting their first win in Houston since 2006 will keep the pressure on the Patriots to remain perfect. Of course, New England will have their work cut out for them as they head to Cincinnati.

Kansas City and Baltimore are set to claw their way back into the playoff rankings as eventually Patrick Mahomes will have to get hot in KC and Lamar Jackson’s return in Baltimore has added life to a Ravens team that looked done after their Week 1 heroics weren’t enough to overcome the Josh Allen experience.

So, here’s a look at how we’d like to see things go this weekend. Get ready Bills Mafia, it’s going to be another wild weekend!

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AFC East Week 12 Bills rooting interests

Buffalo Bills (7-3) over Houston Texans (5-5), Thursday 8:15 p.m. EST (Prime Video)

This one goes without saying, but root for the Bills. A win will keep the Bills right where they are (the five seed) in the AFC Playoff Picture. But it will also keep them on pace for a Week 15 shootout for the division with the New England Patriots.

Josh Allen has never won in Houston, and last year looked like he was on a personal mission instead of being a team player. Hopefully, his personal mission this week is to just get another Bills win. The Texans will be without quarterback C.J. Stroud who is in his third week of concussion protocol, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be an easy road trip for the Bills.

Houston has won their last two games behind backup quarterback Davis Mills and has brought their record back to .500. This is the point in the season where some of those perennial playoff teams wake up and start playing football, so the Bills can’t sleep on anyone from here out.

Of course, the ultimate goal is to get back to the top of the AFC East to get at least one extra game at Highmark Stadium before they make the move across the street next year. In order to do that, they need all the wins.

Go Bills!

New York Jets (2-8) over Baltimore Ravens (5-5), Sunday 1 p.m. EST (CBS)

The Ravens are trying to claw their way back into the playoff picture. Sure, a Baltimore win will improve the Bills SOV because that would be another team with a winning record, but in reality, Buffalo isn’t playing for any ties and facing Lamar Jackson twice in one season usually results in a split.

So, keeping the two-time MVP at home in January would be beneficial. Plus, keeping the Jets ahead of the Titans in the overall standings keeps the 2026 NFL Draft’s number-one pick from landing in the AFC East.

Cincinnati Bengals (3-7) over New England Patriots (9-2), Sunday 1 p.m. EST (CBS)

The Bengals have been the Bills’ friends for years, so here’s hoping they can do Buffalo another solid and drop the Patriots Sunday afternoon. Doing so would give the Bills control over their own destiny. On paper, this looks like an easy New England win, but they have to stumble at some point… right? Everyone stumbles, everyone has off days, everyone loses sometimes. That’s what we’ve been told in Western New York, so here’s hoping it’s the Patriots’ turn.

One thing to keep an eye on as we head into Week 12 is the situation with wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. He was handed a one-game suspension after spitting on cornerback Jalen Ramsey in Week 11. Chase has appealed the suspension, so depending on when his case is heard, he could be active this week (no doubt the suspension will be upheld, it’s just whether he serves it in Week 12 or Week 13 that is now the question).

Week 12 games that impact Bills’ playoff hopes

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) over Chicago Bears (7-3), Sunday 1 p.m. EST (CBS)

The hope is that the Jets somehow pull off a win over the Ravens. If so, a Pittsburgh loss keeps Buffalo poised to jump a couple of spots when they beat the Patriots (remember, we are gambling on a New England loss somewhere between now and Week 15).

However, if the Ravens grab a win this week, a Steelers loss will put Pittsburgh in jeopardy of losing their hold on the NFC North. The two division rivals will face each other twice in December, but Lamar Jackson is back on the field for Baltimore while it looks like Aaron Rodgers may be sidelined with an injury to the wrist on his non-throwing arm.

So in choosing who to root for here, look at the long term: Buffalo can take care of Pittsburgh themselves next weekend. For now, keep the Ravens out of the picture.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-5) over Indianapolis Colts (8-2), Sunday 1 p.m. EST (CBS)

Don’t shoot the messenger, but Bills fans need to root for the Chiefs again this week. A win isn’t going to get them into the Playoff Picture this week despite both the Broncos and the Chargers being on bye. Winning will still have Kansas City sitting in third place in the AFC West and, at best, in eighth in the conference.

On the other hand, an Indianapolis loss, coupled with a Buffalo win, will have the Bills poised to leap frog over them when they regain the AFC East lead. This is about being poised for a huge jump in Week 15. Plus, a Chiefs’ win improves the Bills’ Strength of Victory (SOV) score.

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) over Arizona Cardinals (3-7), Sunday 4:05 p.m. EST (CBS)

A Jacksonville win keeps them ahead of the Chiefs in the AFC Conference standings (really so would a loss thanks to a Week 5 win over Kansas City). It also puts them within a game (if Chiefs do their job) of the top spot in the AFC South.

This one is about keeping Andy Reid watching the playoffs from home this year, and making things uncomfortable for quarterback Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts down the stretch.

Remainder of Bills’ NFL Week 12 rooting interests

Here, it’s all about a few things: Rooting for outcomes that improve Buffalo’s overall SOS or SOS, NFC vs. AFC, or taking the team that will better-position the Bills in the playoff race.

Tennessee Titans (1-9) over Seattle Seahawks (7-3) – Draft Position
Cleveland Browns (2-8) over Las Vegas Raiders (2-8) – SOS
Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) over Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1) – SOS
New Orleans Saints (2-8) over Atlanta Falcons (3-7) – SOV
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4) over Los Angeles Rams (8-2) – SOV
Carolina Panthers (6-5) over San Francisco 49ers (7-4) – SOV

Games that do not impact the Bills this week

New York Giants (2-9) at Detroit Lions (6-4)
Minnesota Vikings (4-6) at Green Bay Packers (6-3-1)

Teams on Bye
Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins, Washington Commanders

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