Paul Toboni.
On July 6, 2025 the Washington Nationals sacked President of Baseball Operations and former Diamondbacks GM, Mike Rizzo, and their manager Dave Martinez. It was the duo that surprisingly won the 2019 World Series. But, after winning that World Series, there was a quick downfall from which the Nationals were never able to recuperate.
Though in 2025 the Nationals were probably never expected to be fierce competitors, the onfield performance was not according to the owner’s expectations, where the young
core wasn’t as exciting as hoped for.
The Nationals finished the disappointing 2025 with some interim management and announced as soon as the season was over that Paul Toboni would be the new leader in the front office.
With his signing as new President of Baseball Operations, Paul Toboni is currently the youngest baseball executive in the MLB with his 35 years. A Berkeley graduate, and a 2011 team mate of Marcus Semien’s college world series Golden Bears, Toboni started his career in the MLB in 2013 as an intern. In 2015 he joined the Red Sox (so he must have met Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen) and since 2019 he oversaw the Red Sox farm system. On his arrival in Washington Toboni overhauled the front office, with his most notable signing being Blake Butera as the on field manager.
Toboni’s immediate focus was the starting rotation. He made 3 notable free agent pitching signings: Foster Griffin came over from the NPB, while Miles Mikolas and Zack Littell joined as free agents from the Cardinals and Reds. All three were signed to a 1-year contract. Max Kranick and Cionel Pérez are two relievers who also joined the Nationals on a 1-year contract.
Toboni also made a bunch of waiver claims and DFAd a lot.
However, the biggest headlines were taken when he moved MacKenzie Gore to the Rangers for 5 prospects. Gore struggled out of the gate in Texas, but has found his groove of late. The 5 prospects that Washington got in return have all easily slipped into the Washington Nationals farm system ranking. Though none is seen as a top talent, the expectations is that the first two got join the big league team this season.
There was some speculation that CJ Abrams could be the next player out of Washington, but the Nationals either couldn’t find a willing trade partner or decided to stick with the infielder, who hasn’t been completely free of some controversy.
Many runs guaranteed in this series.
The early results say that when the Nationals play, you get to see a lot of runs.
The Nationals is the team that scores most runs per game: their 331 runs is one run more than the almighty Dodgers and two more than the Atlanta Braves, the two teams that are currently battling for the power ranking throne in the MLB.
The downside is that the Nationals is also one of the teams that gives up most runs: their 341 runs allowed is second behind the Rockies (355). Their 298 earned runs allowed show that defence has a lot of improvement left. Their 90 homeruns allowed is top in the league and shows that their pitching allows too much hard contact. Their FIP, according to baseball reference, is still third worst in the league.
So, while Toboni hasn’t had a lucky hand in his free agent signings on the pitching front, luckily for him Washington’s bats are about as hot as you can get them. That success is pretty much carried by two players: CJ Abrams and his 155 OPS+ and James Wood’s 160 OPS+. Abrams is the team’s RBI leader, while Wood’s has hit most home runs (16), though what stands out is his huge 17% walk percentage. That makes both players a top 10 position in the entire MLB in those categories.
Woods sports a huge BABIP of .400 over the past two weeks, which is enormous, but until now he has always had higher BABIP in the past two seasons than you’d normally see. The Nationals were a bit down in their latest series against the Marlins, scoring “only” 7 runs and getting swept by Miami, dropping from 31-29 to 31-32.
Matchups.
Game #1 Fri 06/05 6:40 PM MST, Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs Foster Griffin (WSN).
- Merrill Kelly. 9 GS, 53.1 IP, 5 W-3 L, 5.06 ERA, 5.60 FIP, 1.46 WHIP, 33/22 K/BB. $18,000,000.
- Foster Griffin. 12 GS, 67.0 IP, 6 W-2 L, 3.76 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 65/21 K/BB. $5,500,000.
After pitching twice against the Giants and one each against Rockies and Mets, Merrill found himself a tougher opponent in his latest performance in Seattle. The mainstay allowed only 2 runs, but you could say that it could have been much worse. Though Kelly could easily line up for another win in this matchup, it could be more because our bats back him up than him being able to quiet Washington’s. That is a similar view of his performance last time against Washington, last year in May, when he gave up 6 runs in 5 innings, but got a no-decision.
That isn’t such a strange prediction, if you look at it, because Merrill gives up a ton of homeruns, but I give you my Merrill and you show me your Foster Griffin: he has the same HR/9 rate as Merrill Kelly (1.7). Before this season, Griffin had 14.1 innings under his belt in the major leagues, debuting with the Royals in 2020. He played in the NPB the past 3 seasons, where he had an especially strong season for the Yomiuri Giants last season, pitching to a 1.62 ERA in 78 innings.
Griffin has a huge 7-pitch arsenal. Cutter, four-seamer, sweeper, sinker, change-up, curve and split finger. His fastball is weak, reaching an average a bit above 91 mph. The change-up is his best pitch, but he only shows it against right-handed pitching. His barrel percentage is in the 8th percentile, i.e. one of the worst in the league.
With Corbin being a lefty, Ketel a switch hitter and CJ Abrams and James Woods on fire, I foresee a slugfest in this first matchup, with the decision coming late in the game.
Game #2 Sat 06/06 1:10 PM MST, Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) vs Zack Littell (WSN).
- Eduardo Rodriguez. 12 GS, 72.1 IP, 5 W-1 L, 2.24 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 52/26 K/BB. $21,000,000.
- Zack Littell. 12 G, 8 GS, 59.1 IP, 5 W-4 L, 5.01 ERA, 6.22 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, 35/19 K/BB. $3,000,000.
After a great 2024 season for the Rays, Littell was okay-ish in 2025, though probably worse than hoped for, for both the Rays and, after a trade, for the Reds. That is how Littell got to see the Diamondbacks twice last season, in April in a Rays shirt, in August in a Reds shirt. Both times he could not get a win. This year Littell hasn’t been great for the Nationals, though his numbers are very much skewed by three terrible performances at the end of May against Giants (!), Braves and Mets, when he gave up 18 runs in 13.2 innings. Lately, Littell has navigated into quieter waters, a couple of times behind an opener, and over the past 6 innings he sports a 2.53 ERA and 3.49 FIP, pretty similar to Eduardo Rodriguez’s season numbers. His command and his breaking balls (split finger, sweeper) are Littell’s strengths. Littell is a lefty and has a slightly better split against lefties because of that.
So, this matchup could be way more different than the previous one and instead of a slugfest, it could be a tight game with both starting pitchers leaving the game with less than 5 runs scored.
Game #3 Sun 06/07 12:15 PM MST, Michael Soroka (ARI) vs Cade Cavalli (WSN).
- Michael Soroka. 12 GS, 67.0 IP, 7 W-3 L, 3.49 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 66/15 K/BB. $7,000,000.
- Cade Cavalli. 13 GS, 64.2 IP, 3 W-3 L, 3.62 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 1.42 WHIP, 74/24 K/BB. $862,500.
Despite making his debut in 2022, we have never seen Cade Cavalli starting against the Diamondbacks and that is because the former star prospect struggled with injuries and setbacks until returning to the MLB in August 2025, when he made his first start in 3 years. Now, Cavalli is finally ready for his first full major league season in his career, at 27 years of age. His four-seamer/sinker combo is a strong 96+ mph fastball combo, but his strength is in his off-speed changeup and sweeper. Cavalli also shows a knuckle curve. The Oklahoma native is a ground ball pitcher, so a bit of a different profile than Michael Soroka. Cavalli has some strong splits, with lefties getting the upper hand over him.
Soroka will be eager to show the Nationals that his 2026 version is a lot better than the 2025 version who was in Washington. Michael survived the Dodgers’ batting lineup, but will have to be wary of allowing too much hard contact.
