The regular season is winding down and the Atlanta Braves are in pole position to get back on top of the NL East as champions once again. With that being said, there’s still no coronation being planned as there will be seven games in September alone between the Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies and due to the fact that the Phillies have at least stayed in sight in the rearview mirror, that means that those seven games are very likely going to decide who wins the division this season.
If the most
relevant trend from earlier this season holds up, then the Braves should be fine since they had no problem dealing with Philadelphia back in April. With that being said, April is a long time ago and now we know more about both the Braves and the rest of baseball. As such, some interesting trends have materialized this season and I’ve picked out three that have really stood out to me and that I feel like y’all should keep an eye on as the season winds down.
Maurico Dubón keeps on coming up big in big situations
So, we all know that Mauricio Dubón has been coming up with big hits in tough situations all season. This is despite the fact that he’s only hitting .270/.315/.390 for the season with a wOBA of .311 and a wRC+ of 95. Those stats don’t seem to indicate someone who’s supposedly this big world-beater or anything like that but then you look at what he’s done with runners in scoring position and two outs and it’s actually wild.
Dubón has had 62 plate appearances with runners in scoring position and two outs and in that situation, he’s hit .345/.387/.517 with a wOBA of .394 and a wRC+ of 151. For comparison’s sake, the league average in this situation in 2026 has been .230/.328/.383 with a wOBA of .312 and a wRC+ of 98. Essentially, Mauricio Dubón starts hitting like one of the best batters in baseball once he’s in a situation where it’s basically “put up or shut up.” If it feels like Dubón has basically been the guy you want up in this type of situation, it’s because he has been.
It’s also wild considering that this feels like one of those things where Dubón has really been up-and-down with over the course of his career. Last season, Dubón hit .220/.258/.271 with just a .236 wOBA and 48 wRC+ in 62 plate appearances in the same situation with the Astros last season. He did put up a wRC+ of 106 in 51 plate appearances 2024 but before that, his best mark as when he was a monster in that situation during the truncated 2020 season. That’s when he hit .444/.500/.944 with a .584 wOBA and 275 wRC+ in that situation! Sure, it was just 20 plate appearances but if you were an opposing team, you definitely didn’t want to run into him in that type of situation back then.
You certainly don’t want to run into him in this situation right now. It’s gotten to the point where it’s quite easy to envision Dubón coming up big in such a situation in September or October — that is, if opposing teams decide that it’s not worth it to take a chance with Dubón in that situation. At the same time, it’s also not like that’ll be an easy decision since there are still plenty of reasons to go at Dubón since his overall slash line isn’t super great. However, if he does continue to get chances in those situations, your confidence in him will be warranted based on how he’s done so far this season.
The Adventures of Raisel Iglesias
Earlier on in the season, I noticed what felt like a pretty easy and consistent trend to follow whenever Raisel Iglesias was on the mound. Basically, if he got the leadoff batter out, you may as well just call the game right then and there because he’s going to sit down the next two batters in order. If the leadoff runner got on, then it was time to take some blood pressure medication because it was about to get bumpy.
Turns out, the stats support that a bit as well. Long story short, it really does feel like the result of the first AB against Iglesias really does set the tone for things to come during any given inning tha he’s out there. So far this season with the bases empty, 118 opposing hitters have hit .209/.263/.327 against Iglesias with a .262 wOBA. Once a man gets on, those numbers skyrocket — In 89 total batters faced, Iglesias has been very hittable in this situation to the tune of a .263/.337/.413 slash line with a .329 wOBA.
Interestingly enough, he’s faced 64 batters with runners ins coring position and in that situation, he’s given up a low batting average of .214 but the OBP is at .313 and the slugging percentage is at .393, leading to a wOBA of .309. We saw a pretty wild example of this last week, which is when Iglesias found himself in a situation where Shohei Ohtani was at third base with nobody out — and Iglesias got out of it for the save. Wild!
Considering how shaky things have been for Iglesias since the break, I’d imagine that we might be in for some nervy ninth innings once we get into the home stretch of the season but at least you can rest easy knowing that a leadoff double or triple might not be the end of the world — it’s the leadoff singles or walks that you might need to watch out for going forward.
Home is where all the hits live, apparently
September will be a road-heavy month for the Braves, which is actually a bit scary to think about considering how things have gone with the Braves at the plate on the road. Across the entire 2026 season, the Braves have hit .237/.302/.389 with a .304 wOBA and a 90 wRC+ in away games this season. That team wRC+ mark is tied with Arizona for the second-worst mark in the National League. Fortunately, the only team that has hit worse on the road all season is the Philadelphia Phillies and they’ll have 11 road games compared to 13 home games in September.
However, if you look at what’s been going on since the break, things get a bit more concerning. Since the All-Star break, Atlanta has really scuffled at the plate on the road — to the tune of a .218/.271/.321 slash line along with a .264 wOBA and a shockingly-bad 63 wRC+. The only team that’s even in Atlanta’s neighborhood when it comes to their poor batting on the road since the break is the New York Yankees and they haven’t been able to hit consistently even in their own ballpark, much less on the road. That 63 team wRC+ mark on the road is actually the worst in baseball since the break. Meanwhile, the Phillies have gotten their act together on the road and have been hitting at a 100 wRC+ clip since the break.
The Braves have managed to avoid a complete collapse thanks to the fact that as bad as they’ve been away from home, they’ve turned Truist Park into a fortress when it comes to their offense. At home since the break, the Braves have hit .275/.338/.479 with a wOBA of .353 and a wRC+ of 124. All of a sudden, it becomes pretty easy to see how this team could have struggled mightily on that wild road trip a couple of weeks ago then come home and rattle off six straight wins against the Dodgers and Rockies.
So, let’s all hope that the Braves can hold on and win this division since at the very least, they’ll be guaranteed to start the Postseason at home — whether it’s in the Divisional Round as one of the top two teams in the NL or in the Wild Card round for a three-game series at home. If a calamity occurs and Atlanta somehow finds themselves playing on the road in the Wild Card round then, well, let’s just say that it seems likely that the pitching staff will have to pull off the carry job of the century in order to get the Braves into the Divisional Round.
So yeah, those are just three things to look out for as we enter this crucial month of baseball. Naturally with the way this sport works, none of this will be relevant by October and the Braves’ll be looking like a completely different team statistically as they (hopefully) make a deep run into the Postseason. With that being said, by this point in the season you are what the stats say you are and right now, this continues to be a very fascinating team both on paper and in terms of what you see on the field.
