On Friday night, our Lincoln-regional-sweeping sons will take the field in Lee County, Alabama’s second largest city with hopes of getting the first of two wins in this weekend’s Super Regional.
Ole Miss and Auburn did not meet in the SEC regular season, but they’ve been on each other’s schedules since Butch Thompson became head coach for the Tigers in 2016. That means both staffs are familiar with one another, and some players on both teams have played against each other.
The two teams also share
a smattering of common opponents from the 2026 season. I’m not sure how much insight this gives us into the series, but it opens the door for wild transitive property claims, which is always a treat.
Here are said common opponents and both teams’ records against each:
- Nebraska – Ole Miss 1-0, Auburn 2-1
- Missouri – Ole Miss 0-1, Auburn 3-0
- Texas – Ole Miss 1-2, Auburn 1-2
- Alabama – Ole Miss 1-2, Auburn 0-3
- Arkansas – Ole Miss 1-2, Auburn 2-2
- Kentucky – Ole Miss 2-1, Auburn 2-1
- Florida – Ole Miss 2-1, Auburn 2-1
- Texas A&M – Ole Miss 2-1, Auburn 3-1
- Mississippi State – Ole Miss 0-4, Auburn 2-1
- Georgia – Ole Miss 1-2, Auburn 1-2
- LSU – Ole Miss 3-0, Auburn 1-0
If you’re scoring at home, and I know you are, the final records against common opponents:
- Ole Miss – 14-16
- Auburn – 19-14
Not a groundbreaking discovery, as Auburn is the number four overall seed, but it can serve as a talking point if you’re at a watch party on Friday night.
As for the stats involving hitting, pitching, and advantages either side might have, let’s dig in.
I’ve covered Ole Miss’ SEC-only stats multiple times this season, but I’ve never compared them against an upcoming opponent. So, together, we are taking part in history. Congratulations to us all.
In each category below, you’ll see both SEC-only stats rankings. Of note, these aren’t weighted for strength of schedule (nor are any stats situational), but according to Warren Nolan, Auburn had the toughest overall schedule in the country, and Ole Miss had the fourth most difficult.
Runs
Ole Miss pitching (allowed) – 7th vs. Auburn hitting – 10th
Ole Miss hitting – 14th vs. Auburn pitching (allowed) – 1st
Auburn doesn’t allow runs, and Ole Miss can’t score. Not a math person, but that seems to be OF NOTE.
Home Runs
Ole Miss pitching – 10th vs. Auburn hitting – 12th
Ole Miss hitting – 8th vs. Auburn pitching – 4th
Once again, Ole Miss is a home-run-dependent team that doesn’t hit home runs with great frequency. You might think, well that’s not great for scoring runs, and to that I would say, please see the category above and the number 14.
Hits
Ole Miss pitching – 11th vs. Auburn hitting – 4th
Ole Miss hitting – 13th vs. Auburn pitching – 3rd
Right about now is where I am officially CONCERNED. If Ole Miss is going to pull off the upset, the pitching will need a copy and paste performance from Lincoln, and the offense has to raise its level because the 26 walks they got in three games last weekend are probably not going to happen this weekend…
Walks
Ole Miss pitching – 6th vs. Auburn hitting – 13th
Ole Miss hitting – 10th vs. Auburn pitching – 1st
Ole Miss didn’t draw a lot of walks in conference play, and Auburn didn’t walk people. So if we connect the dots, an offense that needs help from the opposing pitching staff is likely not going to get help.
And that brings us back to the question of how are they going to score if they don’t hit a lot of dingers, can’t get hits in general, and won’t be able to draw free passes to create traffic on the bases? No one knows!
Strikeouts
For the record, I am writing this sentence before I look up the numbers, and I am pre-deep sighing.
Ole Miss pitching – 3rd vs. Auburn hitting – 1st (fewest)
Ole Miss hitting – 16th (most) vs. Auburn pitching – 11th
For the historical ledgers, Ole Miss hitters struck out 105 more times than Auburn, and the Tigers had 5 more official at bats. Thanks, I hate it.
If there is a glimmer of positivity, it’s that Auburn’s pitching doesn’t strike batters out with great frequency. Now, Ole Miss hitters may do that heavy lifting for them, BUT WE COULD BUILD ON THIS. MAYBE. PLS.
Fielding
While not a head-to-head stat, Auburn finished 2nd (.980) in the conference in fielding percentage, and Ole Miss, by a miracle from above based on early season returns, finished 8th (.974) with 7 more errors.
Overall
The numbers above look very much like a 4th overall seed against a team that won the 13th overall seed’s regional. If Ole Miss is going to stagger their way to Omaha, they’ll need the pitching to be the star, and somehow get multiple hitters hot enough to generate previously unseen offensive production.
The good news for Ole Miss is that it’s a best-of-three series, which allows for more randomness and chaos than a series of 5 or 7 games. Because of [gestures at everything above], Ole Miss will need the statistical trends to take a break for 2-3 days.
