There are plenty of things the Orioles could have done differently to improve their record last season. They could have played better defense or struck out less. But there’s one simple thing that would have ensured more victories. They could have scored some runs when Shane Baz was on the mound.
Baltimore’s front office went out and got Shane Baz before the season. Baz was under contract with another team in the division, and the Rays did not exactly thrust him onto the trade block. Mike Elias identified
Baz as a pitcher that he wanted in the 2026 rotation, and he overwhelmed the Rays with an attractive bunch of prospects.
Baltimore sent Slater de Brun, Caden Bodine, Michael Forret, Austin Overn, and a competitive balance pick to the Rays in exchange for the former first round pick. Forret has since made his way back to the organization, while de Brun traveled to Tampa after arriving in Baltimore via compensation for the Bryan Baker trade.
Bodine vaulted up prospect lists after a strong 2026 campaign, and Overn currently sits inside Tampa Bay’s Top 10 according to MLB Pipeline. The Orioles sent Tyler Wells to the Rays to reacquire Forret, and a first round pick is a first round pick.
The Orioles, to their credit, did what a team should do after investing that much prospect capital to acquire one player. They signed Baz to a five-year extension worth $68 million dollars.
Baz went on to post a 6-15 record with the Orioles. Those numbers make the deal sound like a total disaster, but that was hardly the case. Baltimore provided Baz some of the worst run support of any pitcher in the majors last year.
Baz finished 2026 with a 4.11 ERA and 3.62 FIP while giving his new team a chance to win almost every night. Unfortunately, the team rarely took advantage of the opportunity. Baz kept his head up and said all the right things after several disappointing efforts, but the team rarely picked up their new teammate.
Mike Elias lauded Baz as a player with Cy Young potential at the time of the deal, but he clarified that the 27-year-old would need time to get to that point. Baz missed all of 2023 and a majority of 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He posted a 4.87 ERA over 166.1 innings in 2025. The season marked the first time that the former top prospect had eclipsed 80 innings in his career.
Baz took a giant step forward with 180 innings over 31 starts. The Orioles may eventually regret parting with such a wealth of talent in exchange for Baz, but it’s difficult not to call his first season in Baltimore a success. The optics would be incredibly different if Baz delivered the same quality of production, but the Orioles were the team competing for a chance to go to the World Series right now.
Baz controlled what he could control, but he also found himself in odd situations. He was on the mound for the infamous “not out of the baseline” play, and he often struggled to strand runners after silly mistakes by Baltimore’s defense. Of the 92 runs he allowed in 2026, only 82 were earned.
The Orioles will look for Baz to take another step forward in 2027. Kyle Bradish earned a similar—albeit pricier—five-year extension, but Trevor Rogers is a free agent. Brandon Young will return after a surprising 2026, and the organization features several talented young pitching prospects, but the Birds will look to Bradish and Baz to lead this rotation in 2027 and beyond.
Baz took a comebacker off his elbow in a mid-September start against the Mets. He appeared to dodge any type of significant injury, but the Orioles shut him down for the final two weeks with the postseason fully out of reach. After delivering a full workload in 2026, Baz should enter next season without any type of innings restriction.
Baz’s 3.4 WAR in 2026 trailed only Pete Alonso, Rogers, and Gunnar Henderson, and there appears to be more meat on the bone. The lack of run support feels like an anomaly, which should free up Baz for more happy endings in 2027.
