This isn’t a “how do you feel about Dylan Dodd” post. It’s more about the Braves. Two buckets of facts, and then I’ll add a third.
Bucket the first: in 2025, Dodd had an 85/94/83 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-). That’s not a dominant reliever line, but it is a pretty good one. In 2026 so far, Dodd has an 46/96/83 line. That’s almost identical but for the small-sample ERA deficit. He’s got some HR/FB issues, but they’re not huge in his sample of under 55 innings over the last two seasons.
Bucket the second:
in 2025, 85 percent of batters Dodd faced came in low leverage, and less than four percent came in high leverage. Remember that medium leverage is average; low and high leverage are uncommon. Also remember that in 2025, the Braves weren’t really playing for anything for a pretty long part of the season. In 2026, it’s 78 percent low leverage PAs, and one percent (one single batter) in high leverage.
That’s a pretty extreme split considering his performance. It’s perhaps even more stark if you look at actual games. In 2025, Dodd entered the game in high leverage twice, medium leverage three times, and low leverage 23 times. In 2026 so far, Dodd has entered the game in high leverage once, medium leverage twice, and low leverage ten times. It’s not quite pre-2026 Aaron Bummer-esque given Dodd’s homer issues, but it’s similar.
Okay, here’s the third bucket. In 2025, Dodd had six meltdowns to two shutdowns, and a highly negative WPA. To be very clear, WPA isn’t a measure of pitcher quality or pitching performance, and neither are shutdowns or meltdowns. Both are a descriptor of what happens to the team while the pitcher is on the mound, which is very different. But, still, having five 2025 outings that didn’t start in low leverage and six meltdowns is, uh… hmm. And in 2026, Dodd has two shutdowns and two meltdowns, and three non-low-leverage-starting appearances, so… yeah.
Hence, my question. What do you think the Braves think of Dylan Dodd? Is he doomed to low leverage the way Aaron Bummer found himself quickly? Does he have a chance of working out of it? If so, what will it take — beyond the mercy of things working out for him in the WPA department? Do you think there’s a HR/FB reaction here in some direction, too?
