The Buffalo Bills are struggling to field a dominant passing game, which is an uncomfortable thing to say about a unit led by quarterback Josh Allen. It’s also true, and something needs to change. Short of making a ground-shaking trade or finding a diamond-in-the-rough midseason free agent, it means that offensive coordinator Joe Brady must adapt his scheme to better fit with the players surrounding it.
Or at least at a play or two that leverages advantages found after the first six games. Adam Pensel
shared some interesting data about Buffalo’s pass attack this week on social media, which might raise a few eyebrows within Bills Mafia. It seems the offense’s best success out of the slot has changed a bit in 2025. The good news first, per Pensel who, after analyzing data, found that tight end Dalton Kincaid and wide receiver Joshua Palmer are “lighting it up when Brady aligns them in the slot.”
That is encouraging news, especially for those who’ve wanted to see more variety from the slot position. With statistics, major pluses or minuses can be found in small discrepancies, which is true here. Through six games this season, Kincaid is just shy of +1.2 in EPA per target out of the slot. That leads all players past or present since the 2023 NFL season. It’s also a massive leap for Kincaid over the past three seasons, where in 2023 and 2024 he was near a net zero in EPA per target out of the slot.
There’s only one season of data for Palmer, but the results through Week 6 are encouraging, with him claiming a +0.4 EPA per target aligned out of the slot. Furthermore, both Kincaid and Palmer have found success no matter where Brady lines them up on the field. On targets outside the slot, Kincaid averages just over +0.4 EPA per target; in the same metric, Palmer averages a clean +0.4 per target everywhere away from slot play.
With Palmer now dealing with a knee/ankle injury, might these figures change for Kincaid and wide receiver Khalil Shakir? Regarding Shakir, it’s clear that he’s regressed in 2025 as a receiver out of the slot, now snug up against a figure of 0 EPA per target as a slot receiver. That’s by far his lowest number as a pro, with a high-water mark of around +1.1 EPA per target out of the slot in 2023, trending downward to just below +0.4 EPA per target out of the slot in 2024.
There is great news when it comes to discussing Shakir’s role with the team in 2025. Per the figures that Pensel shared, it’s clear that Shakir’s best work has come when lined up outside the slot. Through six games, Shakir is just shy of +0.7 in EPA per target anywhere other than in the slot. That’s the highest figure for any Bills player since 2023 — which includes names such as Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and James Cook.
Pensel’s thread goes on to share data on Shakir’s routes, noting that “(t)he concepts feel a little bit uninspired — the diversity was a lot greater in 2024 — but you can’t argue with what works. He’s very good in just about every use case (below).” It’s an interesting look at Shakir, who most of Bills Mafia see as the team’s current top wide receiver.
It also speaks to Brady’s need to continue mixing up personnel use from the slot. Where before it was a given that Shakir was the top play out of the slot, now it appears that role is Kincaid’s to leverage. It’s a move I’ve been looking to see happen with Kincaid, who I continue to view in the mold of former Denver Broncos wide receiver Ed McCaffrey.
In recent years, the slot role has been reserved for players often labeled as “water bugs,” where being small and fast were preferred. But that wasn’t always the case. In the past, the slot was where you’d find bigger targets who weren’t burners, somewhere in-between a boundary receiver and a traditional tight end. That sounds a lot like Dalton Kincaid.
These are encouraging figures if you’re looking for Brady’s ability to evolve his scheme. It hasn’t been perfect, as Pensel points out with regards to Shakir’s use, but there’s genuine effort happening. Now the task is to pull it off without the system adaptions becoming both redundant and complicated in the long run.
