For the first time since 2018, the New England Patriots are on to the AFC Championship Game. After a win over a top ranked Texans defense, Drake Maye and Co. will have another tough task against Denver’s
unit while New England’s defense will look to keep their hot streak going against Jarrett Stidham.
With that, let’s get into this week’s #PostPulpit Mailbag.
What are the keys to beating the Denver Broncos? With Bo Nix out and Jarrett Stidham being virtually an unknown although he’s been seen in some game action in the past, how should we attack the Broncos offensively and defensively? – LandenPatz1
On defense, don’t change what’s not broken. Since the playoffs started New England has gotten much more aggressive increasing their blitz percentage and leaning on their talented cover cornerbacks playing more man coverage — specifically on first downs (where their success rate has jumped 10 percent from the regular season) to get opposing offenses behind the sticks.
While it will be tougher to get pressure this week against a talented Broncos offensive line, I’d still look to try to heat up Stidham as he has not seen a live pass rush in over two years.
On the other side of the ball, it starts with Drake Maye taking care of the football against a pass rush that finished second in pressure rate (40.7 percent) and first in sacks (68). If Maye, who has fumbled six times (lost three) in New England’s first two playoff games, does not turn the ball over, it’s tough to see Stidham and Co. keeping pace on the scoreboard.
Now, New England will have to be ready for a talented defensive line and pressure packages as the Broncos send plenty of schemed pressures to produce a high rate of unblocked rushers. But if you can block up the drop back passing game, it will then come down to beating Denver’s man-to-man coverage — which may begin by targeting Riley Moss early and often as Moss was the most targeted corner in football this season and allowed nine deep completions to pair with 12 penalties.
Do you think the one of the keys to beating the Broncos and slowing down their pass rush would be to get the offense quicker? During the Brady years NE had White and Edelman as quick targets that could gain yards after a catch and act as a safety outlet. Could Henderson, Pop, Williams, or heck even Chism move into that type of role this weekend? – Kingratt
They kept things quick and relatively simple against the Texans last weekend as Maye had his fourth fastest time to throw on the season. Could see a similar approach mixed in with a handful of calculated shot plays to go along with early-down work for Rhamondre Stevenson and Henderson on the ground — where Buffalo had success against Denver last week while building the play-action pass game off of it. New England would be wise to avoid as many third-and-longs as they faced last week.
How much do you feel that our Tight Ends are going to be heavily involved in the passing game particularly v Hufanga? – WelshPatriot.
I can see a big week for Hunter Henry. Denver’s defense was extremely stingy against opposing wide receivers this year — allowing the second-fewest yards per target (6.6), second-lowest first-down rate (31.1 percent) and lowest explosive reception rate (13.3 percent) and touchdowns allowed (six) — but ranked near more the middle of the pack against tight ends and running backs.
Last week, Dalton Kincaid then led Buffalo with six receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown while Dawson Knox even chipped another 32 yards (and was open for a potential overtime game-winning touchdown).
How does Denver’s defense compare to the Chargers and Texans? Should we expect another tough day in the office for Will Campbell? Are there vulnerabilities the Pats’ offense can exploit? – slunkywontergreen
Watching Denver play, they scheme things up more like the Chargers in terms of changing the picture post snap and their pressure packages. They lean more into man coverage than Los Angeles — playing man-to-man at the third-highest rate in the league — but also send plenty of pressure blitzing at the fifth-highest rate.
As for Campbell, he likely will see plenty of Nik Bonitto who posted a career-high 14 sacks this season and ranked seventh among edge defenders with 80 pressures (second-highest pressure rate) while primarily rushing over the left tackle. It will be a challenge, but the one positive for Campbell is that Bonitto primarily relies on speed and is not a lengthy, physically dominant pass rusher that has given him issues this season.
Why do Broncos think they can run against our Defense who was #1 in NFL before injuries piled up and now that the missing pieces have returned at the right time, and the unit is back to dominating in games? – For Pats Sake
With Jarrett Stidham under center, the Broncos will probably try to establish a run game — with J.K Dobbins back from injured reserve and R.J. Harvey — to take as much pressure off the backup QB. However, that is not the style they’ve played all season.
Throughout the year, Bo Nix led the league with 612 pass attempts. They also ran the ball just 12 times last week against Buffalo. Denver may try to run the ball more this week, but a healthy Patriots defense that has rebounded against the ground game could force Sean Payton’s hand to get back to their usual air attack.
Is Hollins back this week? If so how big would his return be to the offense? – Mike QW.
Hollins returned to practice on Thursday in a limited fashion, which began his activation window off of injured reserve. The team has until 4 p.m. ET on Saturday to activate him to the roster.
From this point of view, Hollins would be a big boost to the passing attack. While a lot of attention gets put on his blocking, Efton Chism III has filled in strongly in this area (see: 4Q 10:34 & 3:55 against Houston) as there has been little to no drop-off (maybe even an improvement). But, Hollins’ big frame in the passing game has been missed especially in the intermediate, where he’s caught 16 of 24 targets for 264 yards this season.
If you could foresee one trick play being dialed up for offense or special teams, what would the play be? – DarthVrabel
If they need one, I will go with the double-pass we saw Josh pull out to Dion Lewis in the 2017 AFC Championship Game.
Brian, which is the conference game you’re most excited for? Sean vs. Mike or Sean vs. Mike? – GordieLockbaum
Whichever one puts a Mike in the Super Bowl.
If we lose Thomas Brown to any kind of job, is there a high probability that we bring in Arthur Smith as the TEs coach? – mathblaster97
When Mike Vrabel took over in Tennessee in 2018 he retained Smith on staff at tight ends coach. Vrabel then promoted Smith to offensive coordinator as he replaced Matt LaFleur, who became the head coach of Green Bay. The relationship between the coaches and Smith’s background would make him a logical candidate of joining the staff, but Smith has also had numerous offensive coordinator interviews elsewhere.
That’s all for this week’s #PostPulpit mailbag. If you have questions you’d liked to be answered next week, submit them online in our weekly submission post or on Twitter using #PostPulpit. Make sure to be following @iambrianhines and @PatsPulpit as well.
