Having gotten through the Astros/Blue Jays/Tigers/Red Sox gauntlet pretty well, the Yankees had a bit of a — theoretical — break, earlier this week against the Twins and now have another theoretical one this weekend.
Starting tonight, the Yankees will head to Baltimore to open up a four-game set against the Orioles. This series, and next week’s rematch in the Bronx were probably set for this late in the season with the thought that these two teams would be battling for the AL East. However, that has
not been the case for Baltimore, who sit at the bottom of the division having been one of the biggest disappointments of the season.
That being said, their struggles certainly haven’t been for a lack of talent on their roster, and I’m sure they would love to play spoiler for the Yankees this weekend. Before the action gets going tonight, here’s a look at the expected pitching matchups for the next couple days.
Thursday: Max Fried vs. Cade Povich (7:15 p.m. ET)
He ended up leaving the game a bit early having thrown over 100 pitches in just 5.1 innings, however Fried was pretty good once again last weekend against the Red Sox. He now has a 1.95 ERA and a 2.93 FIP in his last five games, having only allowed one home run in that time. The Yankees are also 4-0 in his four most recent games, as he’s looked much more like the pitcher from the first half of the season than the one from his July/early August swoon.
In his second season in the big leagues, Povich has been below par according to ERA (5.05, 80 ERA+), but a bit better according to FIP (4.30). He’s made two starts against the Yankees in his career, and did pretty well in the first last June, but the Yankees got him earlier this year, scoring three runs in 4.2 innings, with Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt both taking him deep.
Friday: Will Warren vs. Tyler Rogers (7:05 p.m. ET)
If you look up the definition of “rookie pitcher” in the dictionary, you’ll probably find a picture of Warren. At his best, he can look unhittable, while at his worst, he doesn’t look like a big league pitcher. The latter was more on display in his last appearance, as the Red Sox got him for six runs in the first inning, although he managed to get through four more frames and keep it to just those six runs. Both of those have also been on display in his games against the O’s this year, as he had one poor game against them in April, and then came back with 6.1 strong innings in a Yankees win in June.
Acquired by Baltimore at the 2024 trade deadline, Rogers struggled and ended up demoted to the minors just a couple weeks later. He returned to the majors back in May and has been very impressive so far this year. In 16 starts on the year, Rogers has a sub-2.00 ERA and is striking out nearly a batter per inning. His 3.6 fWAR is good for 17th in the majors among pitchers this year, and everyone ahead of him has pitched at least 15ish innings more.
Saturday: Carlos Rodón vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (7:05 p.m. ET)
Rodón’s third season as a Yankee has been by far his best, with a 3.11 ERA, a 3.86 FIP, and 3.9 fWAR. He also comes into this start on a run of having allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight starts dating back to early August. The only thing that’s really hindered him in that time is the walks, as he can run into trouble there, shortening his outings when he’s otherwise been on his game.
Sugano has been just a bit below average in his first MLB season. A lot of that is because he’s been well below par over the last couple months, with a 5.61 ERA over his last 16 starts, having had a 3.04 one through his first 12 games of the year.
Sunday: Cam Schlittler vs. Kyle Bradish (1:35 p.m. ET)
You could make an argument that two of Schlittler’s last three starts have been the worst of his big league career so far. He got knocked out after 1.2 innings against the Blue Jays on September 5th, and then gave up four runs and walked five earlier this week against the Twins. That very well could be a coincidence, but also possible we’re nearing the time where the rookie pitcher needs to make more adjustments with more scouting intel out there on him.
This will be Bradish’s fifth start back since returning from Tommy John surgery a couple weeks ago. The first four have been pretty good for him, with a 2.45 ERA and a 2.69 FIP. With a fourth place Cy Young Award finish back in 2023, it seems like that’s just the pitcher that Bradish is, and he’ll be tough to deal with this weekend — at least for as long as he’s in the game while still on the comeback trail.
