Last week: outlined a path to a Heels win 27-13. Ding ding ding! Won $10, not quite a chicken dinner at Bojangles these days.
For Homecoming, UNC could use a sure win, preferably a one-sided affair after halftime. The “progress!” narrative could really use a P4 team worse than Syracuse, which unfortunately are in short supply. That list includes only Oklahoma State, Boston College, and… Stanford?! Thank you, football gods!
UNC faces Stanford at home Saturday at 4:30 pm EDT. Those so inclined may view
the game via the media hinterlands known as “CW.” Let’s look inside the numbers for these two programs and see if we find a plausible path to victory for our Tar Heels. Maybe even a butt-kicking? Perchance to dream….
College football’s FBS doesn’t sport too many teams with a collective QBR below our Tar Heels. Somehow, our schedule features four of them: Charlotte, Syracuse, Stanford, and Wake Forest. I’m not sure we need to look much further than these numbers (but of course we will).
If you don’t want to click on that, just know that Gio’s QBR sits at 42.4. The three ACC QBs below him in QBR: the starting QB’s at Wake Forest, Stanford, and Syracuse, in that order. Gio’s 10 points better than Stanford’s current past starter, Ben Gulbranson. The Cardinal announced they will roll with Elijah Brown against the Heels.
Last week, Syracuse threw in the towel on the guy at the bottom of that list, Rickie Collins, and started a lacrosse player. Somehow the Heels still trailed at half. Brown is an actual football-first athlete, a former 4-star with one career start (see Evan’s Three Things to Watch for more). That start came against Wake Forest last season, lasting all of nine passes and one pick before giving way to Ashton Daniels.
QB ADVANTAGE: North Carolina, for the 2nd game in a row. End times, baby.
2025 Season So Far: Push
If we were going by trend analysis and recency bias, UNC gets the clear nod here. However, Stanford’s win over FSU objectively impresses more than UNC’s victory over an Orange team with no functional QB. Stanford has a similar number of wins against a significantly more difficult schedule. Stanford’s accomplished that with an interim head coach rather than a collection of self-described NFL geniuses (who somehow can’t land work in the actual NFL) getting paid.
SP+ — for some reason — rates Stanford 40 ranking slots below FEI and SP+, both of which rate Stanford and UNC 83rd and 85th, respectively. To me, that all adds up to a push. These are bad teams with bad results hanging at the bottom of every ranking system out there with the likes of Boston College, Syracuse, and California. Other than Oklahoma State (way down there at 127), these five ACC programs are the worst P4s out there. ACC! ACC!
Tar Heel Offense vs Cardinal Defense: Edge Stanford
Why do I look at drive stats? It’s an easier way to spot “strength vs strength” or “strength vs weakness.” Drive stats also help identify defenses which seek to be “boom or bust,” hunting turnovers and sacks at the expense of big plays, or “bend but don’t break,” aiming to make offenses sustain long drives without mistakes.
UNC’s offense ranks as one of the worst in FBS because it’s bad at both moving the sticks (efficiency) and generating explosive plays. Stanford’s defense will risk big plays (109th in drive success rate) in return for a negative play that kills a drive in its tracks (36th in busted drives). Can UNC hit some big plays against that kind of defense?
They did against Syracuse, who had a similar defensive profile. Gio had good numbers against the blitz, and that screen pass to June was the game-breaker. If the Heels hit two or three big plays against Stanford, the offense might have its best day of the season as the game flow tilts in UNC’s favor. Because…
Tar Heel Defense vs Cardinal Offense: Edge North Carolina
Stanford gives up a lot of sacks. Only 6 teams in FBS surrender more. Brown replaced Gulbranson against Pitt due to the starter’s three interceptions. However, Brown took sacks in that relief effort, registering -17 yards rushing. Their offense has some decent playmakers, but it just goes backwards far too often no matter the QB.
Also: Stanford can’t run the ball, averaging 2.5 yards per rush in ACC play. UNC’s defensive line controlled the games against California, Virginia, and Syracuse. Those three teams ran the ball 97 times at 2.6 yards a pop. UNC’s defensive line consistently generated pressure with four on passing downs, allowing the back seven to mix up coverages and keep a safety back, just in case. Defenses that shut down an opponent’s rushing attack and then generate pressure with four against the pass are living the dream.
Those drive stats are the biggest mismatch on paper UNC’s had all season going into a game, excepting FCS Richmond. If (when?) Stanford trails by enough to force the Cardinal to take more risks on offense, this could get ugly. A plausible path to a blow out of a P4 opponent (gasp) exists. Stanford’s more along the lines of a Missouri State or Delaware than “P4,” but the ACC took them, so that’s that. They’re P4.
Special Teams: Edge North Carolina
Stanford struggles with returns, both kick offs and punts. UNC doesn’t return kick offs well, but the punt return team has been well above average. Both teams like to kick FGs when their offenses self-destruct in the red zone and do so reliably (both kicking FGs and self-destructing in the red zone). Special teams don’t appear likely to move the needle much in this game outside of a possible big punt return.
Odds Review
UNC opened a 9.5-point favorite, which has since fallen by 2 points to 7.5. The total sits at 41.5, which gives us an implied final result around 24-17. Is that Belichick bait? The narrative recently has been “UNC making strides” while Stanford’s coming off two very lopsided losses, albeit to Miami and Pittsburgh. Vegas may be laying a recency bias trap here.
FEI has this game a virtual toss-up (22-21, roughly). SP+ predicts UNC around 28-19. SP+ proved the more accurate assessment of UNC-Syracuse, although it could not have known Syracuse would start a lacrosse player at QB. Which of those predictions will win out?
On vibes, it’s easy to see this UNC team on an upswing. Stanford has to travel across the country, which can always throw a squad for a loop. On the other hand, teams like UNC that have been grinding and grinding some more to get that W, can tend to relax the following week, especially if the quality of opponent doesn’t exactly get the blood racing. One of the joys (or frustrations, depending on which end of the stick you get as a fan) of CFB is never quite knowing what you’re going to get week to week.
Summary
UNC’s strengths, such as they are, play into Stanford’s weaknesses. The UNC defensive line should be able to control the Stanford offense. UNC’s offense should be able to run consistently against Stanford’s defense, which tends to handle misdirection well but has crumbled against determined power rushing attacks. Explosive plays will be available to the offense if Gio can trust it and pull the trigger. Big if.
Stanford’s D will crack if its offense looks incapable of catching up, much as Syracuse’s did last Friday. Add it all up, and I think UNC covers the 7.5. I’ll even go a step further. I think given the trajectory of these two teams, UNC wins handily, 31-9. Stanford’s that bad. This game shouldn’t be close. But, college football loves to turn logic on its head, which is why we love it so much (as long as it’s a rival getting upended and not us).
Go Heels
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