There’s a fine line between fearmongering and reporting.
Lately, I’m obsessed with Artificial Intelligence (AI). This self-indulgent diatribe will be brief, although I will note that this is exactly the type of self-aware writing that AI can’t replicate:
Yet.
It seems likely to me that AI will be an extinction-level event. We are training the models to solve macro problems, and one viable solution to many macro problems would be “remove the humans”.
Anyway, this website is about the Houston Rockets.
I’ve used this platform to criticize Rockets players to such an extent that at times, I’ve been labelled a malcontent. It is not my intention to monger fear. I intend to be objective. For example, I’ve said multiple times that Amen Thompson is my favorite player on this team.
And I’m getting worried about him.
Rockets’ Amen Thompson is failing expectations
Per DataBallr, the Rockets are -1.0 with Thompson on the floor, and a resounding +34.7
when he’s off.
There is some noise in those numbers. The Rockets are shooting 47.0% from deep when Thompson is off, and 33.3% when he’s on. There’s probably no ironclad causal link there:
But there is probably some correlation.
Eye test-wise: The offense just looks better when he’s off the floor. The Alperen Sengun, surrounded by shooters and length, dream that so many have harbored for so long, is actualizing, and it’s beautiful. Thompson’s 22.2% three-point shooting has established that Chip Engelland, for all of his talents, is not a God.
Last season, the Rockets were +6.7 when Thompson was on the court. It’s hard to pinpoint what has changed. It’s likely less that Thompson has a specifically negative impact, and more a testament to how well everything is working when he’s off. Still, it’s fair to say that he looks a bit different. There appears to be some lost confidence.
Too often, Thompson sets out to drive to the hoop, only to be stymied by the defense, almost seeming surprised to find a rim protector where his rim is supposed to be. His midrange has made exactly 0.0% progress. It’s getting scary:
What’s the solution?
Thompson needs to figure it out.
Thompson also isn’t beating worlds on defense like he used to. He is, frankly, just a guy on that end of the floor this year. He’s getting 1.2 steals per game, which is fine, but a career low. More concerningly, he’s blocking 0.2 shots per game. This kid swatted 1.3 a night as a sophomore.
Thompson is supposed to be a wrecking ball on defense, and this year he’s been more like a… soccer ball? Not a completely harmless ball – getting hit with a soccer ball hurts – but he’s not knocking down game plans like so much brick and mortar like he used to.
That feels like the first order of business. Get back to doing the most Thompson-y stuff. He’s largely off ball on the offensive end, so he should be able to refocus his efforts on defense.
And maybe that points to the primary culprit. Thompson may be suffering some role-related whiplash. He’s conserving energy out of habit for an amount of offensive responsibility he no longer has.
Here’s my best attempt at optimism. My last article was about how Jabari Smith is breaking out in his fifth season. Thompson’s sophomore year alone was better than any Smith Jr. has had, excluding this one so far. He is probably going to be fine, but if he can’t refine his offensive game, he needs to get back to turning defense into offense as a defensive playmaker. That ought to bolster his overall net rating pretty quickly…
Unless AI cancels the NBA,
