No Baker Mayfield last week for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That meant rookie Jalon Daniels took the reins. Daniels went 9-for-27 for 148 yards, threw two interceptions, posted a 65 passer rating, and was sacked three times.
It can’t get worse, right?
The San Francisco 49ers play the Dallas Cowboys a month from now. In my opinion, that’s an NFC Championship preview.
But the Cowboys won’t win a playoff game if their 32nd-ranked defense in EPA per play doesn’t improve. And it’s not as if teams are gashing
the Cowboys, which would inflate their defensive numbers. They’re dead last in success rate, too.
Something has to give on that side of the ball. There’s only one way for Daniels to go. Without Joey Porter Jr., Dallas has been more than accommodating to opposing offenses. He’s not in uniform tonight.
Dak Prescott has been surgical this season. Only Brock Purdy and Lamar Jackson have generated a higher EPA. Prescott has an 8-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Historically, he’s been aggressive against the blitz. That does not bode well for a Todd Bowles defense. It could be a long night for a Tampa Bay secondary without Antoine Winfield.
My gut says 31-14, Cowboys. But this is not a team that wins comfortably. Their defense won’t allow it. So I’ll go 28-24 in an exciting Thursday showdown.
