There was one ranked-vs-ranked matchup in the Big Ten last weekend, and the other ranked teams that played were able to win their games. We now have a few surprises at the top of the Big Ten standings, including UCLA and Wisconsin. And there are a few surprises at the bottom of the standings including Washington and Penn State. Purdue got its second conference win in a row. Nebraska had their first loss of the season-despite being ahead for most of the game against Indiana.
How do the rankings shake
out now that most of the Big Ten teams have played at least two conference games?
Polls
There are 6 Big Ten teams ranked in the Coaches Poll and 6 in the AP Poll; but they aren’t the same 6. Here are Big Ten teams in the polls (AP/Coaches):
- Ohio State (4/5) up 1 in both polls
- Indiana (5/4) up 2 in the AP and up 1 in the Coaches
- UCLA (12/12) Up 9 in the AP and up 10 in the Coaches
- Iowa (17/16) up 3 in the AP and up 2 in the Coaches
- USC (19/15) unchanged in the AP and up 2 in the Coaches
- Northwestern (25/NR)
- Oregon (NR/25) dropped out of the AP and down 12 in the Coaches
UCLA’s rise and Oregon’s drop makes sense given the outcome of that game. The other changes were minor and were probably more of a reflection of what the other teams did than what the Big Ten teams did.
In addition, there are 4 other teams getting votes in the polls. Wisconsin is #26 in the AP and #30 in the Coaches poll. Oregon is #27 in the AP poll. Nebraska is #29 in the AP poll and #28 in the Coaches. Northwestern is #26 in the Coaches poll. That makes a total of 9 Big Ten teams getting at least some votes in both polls.
Composite Ranking
The Massey Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks) includes 79 different rankings (as of the writing of this article), including the AP and Coaches polls. The following ‘Cool Chart’ shows the changes since the preseason.
There have been some major changes for most of the teams since the preseason-which certainly shows that preseason rankings are not always very accurate. But now that we are 6 games (for most teams) into the season, (unfortunately for UW), this is where the teams are.
Rutgers has the biggest change since the preseason; they are down 52 places. Illinois is down 34, Penn State is down 30, and Washington is down 48.
UCLA is up the most since the preseason; up 51 places. Coach Chesney seems to have that program going in the right direction. Purdue is up 37 places. Nebraska (+20), Northwestern (+26), and Wisconsin (+22) are other Big Ten teams up at least 20 places.
Other Rankings
There are other rankings of all FBS teams. Here is a table comparing the Massey Composite with some of the more popular rankings. (Note that some of these other rankings are included in the Massey Composite, but not all of them.) This should provide an image of how consistent the rankings are.
The Sagarin ratings include FCS teams. South Dakota State is ranked #61, which means that they are ranked above Michigan State, Maryland, and Rutgers. Youngstown State is ranked #80, which means they are ranked above Rutgers.
There are some noticeable disagreements in these rankings. Eleven of the teams vary by more than 20 places between their best and worst rankings. The biggest disagreement is with Michigan State which varies between #60 and #97. Purdue is next, varying between #41 and #73. Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Ohio State, and USC vary by less than 10 places.
Six of the Big Ten teams are in the top-25 in all of these rankings. Oregon and UCLA are in all but one. Michigan and Wisconsin are in the top-25 in just one of these rankings. That means that over half of the Big Ten teams are considered a top-25 team by at least one ranking.
F+ Ratings
The F+ Ratings (and rankings) are a combination of the FEI Rating and the SP+ Rating. It includes an overall rating along with separate ratings for offense, defense, and special teams.
Eight Big Ten teams are in the top 25 overall. Nebraska is a top-25 team here, and in the other rankings above, but they are not in the top-25 in either of the polls. They are also one of four Big Ten teams whose offense and defense are both in the top-25 (along with Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon).
Seven of the top 25 offenses are in the Big Ten. Illinois has a top-25 offense, but they aren’t in the top-25 overall-because their defense is #90. Iowa and UCLA are top-25 overall, but their offenses are not-and in the case of Iowa, they aren’t even in the top 50.
The Big Ten has 9 of the top-25 defenses. Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin all have top-25 defenses, but aren’t in the top-25 overall. Nebraska and USC are in the top-25 overall, but don’t have a top-25 defense-although Nebraska is very close at #26.
We are finally seeing UW’s special teams ranking move up. For 2025 and for most of this season, UW’s ST rank has been above 90; now it is 66. Iowa’s special teams was #1 last season and is currently #1 again.
Oregon is the only team in the top-25 in all three phases while Maryland, Minnesota, Rutgers, and Washington aren’t in the top-25 in any phase.
Win Total Projections
Here are the current win total projections from ESPN’s FPI. These reflect the current FPI rankings for the teams and their remaining opponents. Also included are the changes in the last week.
- Indiana: 11.3 (up from 10.9)
- Ohio State: 10.1 (up from 10.0)
- Oregon: 7.9 (down from 9.1)
- Nebraska: 8.8 (down from 9.0)
- UCLA: 9.6 (up from 8.7)
- Wisconsin: 8.4 (down from 8.5)
- Northwestern: 8.3 (unchanged)
- Penn State: 7.5 (down from 8.2)
- Iowa: 8.8 (up from 8.2)
- USC: 8.4 (up from 7.8)
- Michigan: 6.2 (up from 6.1)
- Minnesota: 5.1 (down from 6.0)
- Washington: 4.5 (down from 5.2)
- Illinois: 4.8 (up from 4.4)
- Michigan State: 4.0 (down from 4.4)
- Purdue: 5.1 (up from 4.2)
- Maryland: 3.8 (down from 3.9)
- Rutgers: 2.3 (unchanged)
Ten Big Ten teams have at least a 96% chance to get to 6 wins according to ESPN’s FPI. They give UW an 18.1% chance to get to 6 wins (and a bowl game).
Week 7 Games
There are 7 games this week in the Big Ten; all are conference games. Four Big Ten teams are off this week: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, and USC. Here’s a look at win projections for the week 7 games in the Big Ten.
There is agreement in most of these games. The exception is the UW-Purdue game. ESPN’s FPI has Purdue as the favorite, but Massey and SP+ favor UW.
According to ESPN’s FPI, Washington is not favored in any of their remaining games. They give UW the best chance against Michigan State game (44.8%). This week’s game and the Penn State game (35.8%) are the only other games where UW has a better than 11% win percentage.
Final Notes
UCLA looks like they are following the formula that Indiana used and are turning around that program very quickly. Northwestern also appears to have improved a lot under their first-year coach. On the other hand, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State do not appear to have improved under their first-year coaches.
Nebraska lost to Indiana, but they showed that they can play a close game against a top opponent. They should be ranked in the top-25 now. They will likely be ranked in the top-25 when they host Ohio State in the second-to-last game of the season.
UW is clearly one of several Big Ten teams that have underperformed so far this season. I imagine that several Big Ten fan bases would argue that their team has underperformed the most, including Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Oregon, Penn State, and Rutgers (in addition to UW).
UW has 6 more conference games. They will need to at least split those games to be bowl eligible. That would seem to be the goal-so that all of the young players on the team can have more practices and another game to show improvement. But getting 3 more wins will not be easy; a win in this week’s game is almost required to get to 6 wins.
