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I got very used to watching the Commanders use a “horizontal” passing attack under Kliff Kingsbury in 2024, by which I mean passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. These comprised screen passes,
checkdowns to running backs and other play designs.
Today, I’ve spent a lot of time interacting with Gemini (Google’s AI-powered search engine) to harvest data about the frequency with which such passes were used in the NFL and by certain teams over the past two seasons. In some cases, I have been unable to independently verify these numbers, but there was enough consistency in the results I got for me to feel that they are probably reliable.
First of all, what’s “normal” in the NFL?
Gemini tells me that the league-wide average for passes at or behind the line of scrimmage typically hovers between 15% and 17% of all pass attempts.
Moreover, Gemini tells me the following about Kliff Kingsbury’s offense in 2024 & 2025:
- During the 2024 season, 20.1% of the Washington Commanders’ total pass attempts were thrown behind the line of scrimmage, ranking as the fifth-highest rate in the NFL.
- In 2025, that number dropped closer to 14.5% as injuries and changes in the offense altered their playbook execution.
Looking at the receiving skills and historical usage of players like Rachaad White, Chig Okonkwo, Jerome Ford and Dyami Brown, I’ve been wondering if I should anticipate a resurgence of the screen/checkdown passing game in 2026 under new offensive coordinator David Blough.
Using Ben Johnson’s offenses as a proxy for the 2026 Commanders offense
Given that Dan Quinn has hired two first-time NFL coordinators — meaning that no one really knows exactly what the offensive or defensive schemes will look like — Commanders fans and analysts have pretty much defaulted to looking at the Brian Flores defense as a proxy for Washington’s 2026 defense, and Ben Johnson’s offense as a proxy for the Commanders’ 2026 offense. We probably won’t know until some time in September or October how legitimate these proxies are, but I’m going to follow suit here.
2025 Chicago Bears
I did a bit of research on the 2025 Bears offense under 1st-year head coach Ben Johnson and found this article that was published after the Bears had played 11 games. The passing chart in the article says that the 2025 Bears attempted 15.9% of throws in those 11 games at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Based on these details for those first 11 games (327 pass attempts) for the ’25 Bears, I extrapolated the following numbers for a 17-game season:
- Total pass attempts: 505
- Attempts at or behind the line of scrimmage – 80 (15.9%)
2024 Detroit Lions
Gemini was able to provide full season stats for Jared Goff, the Lions starting quarterback in the 2024 season when Ben Johnson was in his final year as Detroit’s offensive coordinator. While there were 12 snaps handled by players other than Goff, I believe his stats are extremely representative of the Lions offense for the ‘24 season:
- Total pass attempts: 539
- Attempts at or behind the line of scrimmage – 96 (17.8%)
Using these numbers as a baseline, it feels as if Ben Johnson is very much in line with the NFL average. Over two seasons, his quarterbacks appear to have thrown roughly 176 of 1,044 attempts (16.9%) at or behind the line of scrimmage.
If we use Ben Johnson’s last two offenses as a proxy for what to expect from the 2026 Commanders, then it seems reasonable to expect about 17% (±1%) of passes to be screens, checkdowns and other throws behind the LOS.
The ‘24 Lions and ‘25 Bears were not equally successful with the screen game
I’m relying on Gemini here. This is what my AI researcher tells me about the comparison of YARDS AFTER CATCH (YAC) on screen passes by the ‘24 Lions & ‘25 Bears:
‘24 Lions
According to PFF tracking data published by Yahoo Sports, the 2024 Lions were the most efficient screen pass team in the entire NFL.
- They averaged an elite 0.257 Expected Points Added (EPA) per screen.
- They averaged over 6.5 yards per play strictly on screen designs.
- Because a standard screen is caught behind or right at the line of scrimmage, this 6.5 yards-per-play metric means they were essentially netting an average of 6 to 7 yards of YAC every single time Goff flipped the ball backward or parallel to the boundaries.
‘25 Bears
The 2025 Bears utilized a healthy volume of behind-the-line throws to protect rookie Caleb Williams, but they struggled significantly to generate efficient YAC from them. These bullet points are provided by Gemini:
- Per Pro Football Reference, Advanced YAC Constraints: Across all completions in 2025, the Bears averaged 5.6 YAC per completion. On behind-the-LOS throws specifically, Chicago fell right into the bottom half of the league, hovering closer to an average of 4.3 to 4.7 yards of YAC per play.
- The “Static” Static Blanket: Unlike the Lions’ moving screens, Chicago’s behind-the-LOS throws were often static bubble screens or late-developing checkdowns to running backs. Because defenses quickly sniffed out these rookie security blankets, Williams’ targets were frequently swallowed up immediately at the catch point.
- Comparison to Outliers: While teams like the 2025 Chiefs used Patrick Mahomes to push high-YAC behind-the-LOS metrics to players like Xavier Worthy, the Bears struggled to get blockers out in space cleanly, leaving Williams with low-value completions that frequently resulted in 2nd-and-long scenarios.
What YAC did the Commanders produce in 2024 & 2025?
I am again reliant on Gemini for this information. The AI-powered researcher provided both bullet points and a handy chart; the chart seems easily digestible:
This chart indicates that in ‘24, with the right quarterback (Daniels) and the right personnel (Ekeler & McLaurin), the Commanders’ horizontal passing game was highly effective, averaging around 6 yards per receeption — a bit less than the ‘24 Lions.
By contrast, in 2025, with Daniels, Ekeler and McLaurin on the field together for less than two complete games, the effectiveness of this part of the passing attack fell off sharply — ranking in the bottom 10 in the NFL if Gemini is to be believed.
What does this mean for the 2026 Commanders offense?
Offensive snaps for the season
Let’s look at offensive snap counts for the four teams we’ve been discussing:
I’d like to think that the ‘25 Commanders snap count is an outlier that won’t be repeated in 2026. I’d suggest that the expected number of offensive snaps should be around 1,130 (excluding plays negated by penalties) and the percentage of passing plays should be similar to the two Ben Johnson offenses — that is, about 54%.
Number of passing plays, attempts & throws at/behind the LOS
- If we use 54% of 1,130, then we will project 610 passing plays for the upcoming ’25 season.
- Roughly 35 of these plays will end with a sack, resulting in an estimated 575 pass attempts.
- 17% of throws at or behind the line of scrimmage would be 98 total attempted screens, checkdowns & other lateral pass plays
Who will be targeted on these 98 attempts?
The following chart is based on data for selected Commanders veteran offensive skill players from Pro Football Focus (PFF); it shows details of passes thrown to these players at or behind the line of scrimmage in the 2025 season:
You can see that, from the standpoint of raw production, Rachaad White was the most targeted and most successful of the 7 listed players in 2025; however, Chig Okonkwo was dramatically more efficient with an average of 7.71 yards per reception, and Bill Croskey-Merritt & Dyami Brown equaled White by catching 100% of their 2025 targets behind the LOS.
