It has been half a decade since the Wolves won their first two regular season games to start the season. That was Chris Finch’s first full season as Minnesota’s coach. He led that team through the play-in and into a spirited six game series against the number two seeded Memphis Grizzlies. Since then, the Timberwolves have had their best stretch of basketball of their existence while also wrestling with their identity through its myriad iterations.
Thus far, there has been little wrestling. The Wolves
have stepped into the season knowing who they are, and what they are, is fun.
Game Info
- Who: Minnesota Timberwolves (2-0) vs. Toronto Raptors(2-0)
- When: Sunday, October 25 at 6:00 PM CT
- Where: Target Center – Minneapolis, MN
- Local TV: NBA TV | DAZN-MIN
- Radio: 830 WCCO
Some Numbers
SSS (small sample size) Alert, but these undefeated teams are incredibly similar in what they’ve done well and where they’ve let up. They are both rebounding the ball well. They are both limiting their opponents to just under 100 points per game. They are both averaging north of 120 points a game. And both teams generate the same amount of turnovers. Minnesota forces turnovers less with steals, and more with consistent pressure that forces their opponents into mistakes. Toronto gets more takeaways with traditional box score stats.
That said, the Raptors wins have come against the rebuilding Chicago Bulls and the Washington Wizards (who are going in a direction, I am not sure what direction, but they are not standing still). The Wolves made mincemeat of the Heat and the Magic, both teams I would rank higher than the slate of Eastern Conference teams the Raptors have dispatched.
What to Watch For
Kawhi and the Wings
The Toronto Raptors were reunited with their 2019 NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard in the off-season after a drawn out process. Essentially, Clippers learned from from the Timberwolves as they took over the crown for Worst Instance of Cap Circumvention. In each of the two games the Wolves ran into Leonard last season, he scored over 40 points. He is quite simply, a problem. The Raptors will rely heavily on the Klaw’s self-creation if the Wolves force them into a halfcourt offense. As Leonard is working into game shape and yet to play over 28 minutes this season, Toronto has All-Defensive forward Scottie Barnes to pair alongside Kawhi. Barnes has grown into a two-way force himself.
Toronto may choose to put neither wing on the Wolves backcourt of LaMelo Ball and Anthony Edwards, but that doesn’t mean they are any less effective. The passing lanes that the Wolves have used so effectively in the past two wins might look free, almost serene, like an open field of grass. When suddenly the ball is swiped from the air.
The Wolves will need to take care of the ball and not let the Raptors find a rhythm in transition.
Protecting the Paint
The Raptors don’t shoot a lot of threes. The ones that they do shoot, they tend not to make. Toronto has made just 11 of their 70 attempts thus far (15.7%). Instead the Raptors get theirs in the midrange and at the rim. Whoever guards Kawhi, be it Jaden McDaniels, Jonathan Kuminga, or Terrance Shannon Jr. will need to need be patient, weathering his physicality and cleanly contesting. Like with Paolo Banchero and Giannis Antetokounmpo, it will not be about shutting the star down, it will be about making them work for their shots and preventing anyone else from getting going. Conversely, the Wolves have lost the points in the paint battle, but made up for it with gang rebounding on the misses they do force to generate second chance looks.
Rudy Gobert should match up well against Jakob Poeltl and this might be a game for the Wolves to attack the basket more with a traditional pick-and-roll attack. The Wolves most protected passes will likely be lobs, and with 14-feet of French center to put them in the hoop, they can limit the defensive disruption of RJ Barrett, Collin Murray-Boyles, Barnes, and Leonard.
Energy Off The Bench
The Wolves bench will need to bring the same pop that they did in Orlando. The matchup between Joan Beringer and Murray-Boyles will be one I am specifically watching. It could be a battle of energizer bunnies looking to make plays for their team through sheer effort. Super Sixth Man Ayo Dosunmu is head and shoulders better than the Toronto’s bench guards in Jamal Shead and Ja’Kobe Walter, and if Terrance Shannon Jr.‘s three-ball continues to fall, he should be able to break down any Raptor defense when only one of Leonard, Barnes, or CMB is on the court.
Raptors head coach Darko Rajaković has balanced his starters minutes which is much easier to do when blowing Chicago out by 40. Like they have done thus far, Minnesota needs to push off of rebounds, turnovers, and especially after Toronto makes. Should the Wolves turn this game into a track meet against the older Raptors, they will find a recipe for success.
Prediction
The first quarter will be a back-and-forth affair as both starting lineups will trade buckets. The Wolves from outside as Melo and Rudy chip away at the defense with pick-and-rolls, while the Raptors rely on Kawhi’s lethal jumper. As the teams go to the bench, Toronto’s high effort style that kept them in games last year will have a Spider-Man meme moment, as the Wolves match the effort with more talented players.
The Raptors will take small bites into the Wolves lead, but never be able to finish the whole meal as Minnesota serves up an all you can eat buffet of three-pointers.
Our blogging buddies are Raptors HQ. Be kind to our Canadian neighbors!
