Portland Trail Blazers questions lie at the heart of the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag. Usually we print deep questions with extended answers. But sometimes you’ve just gotta go with the short hits, either because the question is simple, it’s oft-repeated, or its funny and off-topic. So here you go, the quick-hit version of the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag to clear out our inbox a little.
Dave,
Should we [the Blazers] make a big trade? Is it time?
Ronny
It depends on what deals are there. The Blazers cannot just go
for an expensive player who looks good on paper. They have to think about re-signing Deni Avdija soon. Because of his current, bargain-basement contract he’s not going to settle for discounts, nor should he. If he continues his current level of play, he’ll make a ton.
Portland can’t take a second contract that ends up untradeable and gumming up their cap. But if they can get a franchise-changing player—despite the current competition in the West—they do need to go for it. What good is it having Avdija if he doesn’t want to stay when his contract is up? Or what good is it keeping him if it amounts to a bunch of first-round playoffs exits or worse?
If the big swing is there, they need to take it while they have assets to make it work and talent to make it pay. If it’s not there, the Blazers still aren’t in position to fake it or improve incrementally. Those picks are their second-best chance (outside of a star-level trade) to progress forward. They should only move them for the first-best chance, not third-best or lower.
Dave,
I keep hearing about the Bucks picks the Blazers have but how valuable are they really?
Evan
I mean, who knows now? My sense is that Milwaukee will bottom out for a bit if they trade Giannis, which would make Portland’s assets less valuable than they would have been under the old lottery system. But if the Bucks are mediocre—which is perfectly possible since the Eastern Conference is weak—then Portland’s chances of promotion are as good as anyone’s. And hey, even if the Bucks stink the Blazers will have 2/3 the chance of every other team in the lottery. The problem is, there’s no backstop or ground floor. The picks could land anywhere from first overall to twelfth or sixteenth. There’s a huge difference between a top three pick and the eighth one, let alone fourteenth.
One thing we do know is that Milwaukee’s imported draft assets are likely to be better than Portland’s own organic picks. Unless the blockbuster move we just mentioned is available—meaning a player who is the kind of star a high draft pick would eventually grow into—the Blazers are going to be better off taking their chances…or maybe waiting until they actually know where those picks lie to trade them.
Dave,
Do Deni’s turnovers bother you? How do you see his future as a ballhandler?
Paul
They don’t. They’re comparable to a few of the high-usage, high-profile point guards in the league, guys who have had far more experience than he initiating offenses. Avdija plays better defense than they do, so I’m good with everything he does overall for now.
In the future, I think he could become great by trimming down the TO’s by about one per game and stabilizing his three-point shot. But even if he doesn’t manage that, Deni should have a long career as a secondary ball handler. The Blazers will just need to fill in around him, compensating for whatever roles he doesn’t play.
Whatever ills Portland has right now, Deni is not the problem.
Dave,
Why do you hate us Spurs fans? It’s not our fault we got high picks. It might even have been part of the plan.
Manny
I think you misunderstand my complaints about the Spurs. I don’t hate them or their fans. I just don’t care. Literally, I feel nothing about San Antonio or the sport when I see them play. You’re not the villains. You’re not a rival. You’re not even an aspiration. To me, you just don’t matter.
The Spurs have done nothing significant or distinctive to earn their position outside of drafting Stephon Castle if we want to grant that. That was a good move, but hardly “worthy of dynasty and championship contention” good. Your team-building was the result of randomness, bald luck. There weren’t any limits on how it could work for a franchise and you benefitted. Yay. (I know, you’ll point to all the other moves that contributed. I didn’t say the lottery selections were your only move, simply that none of the other ones lead from where you started to where you are now absent those lottery promotions.)
But when things are determined primarily by luck, they lose meaning. If the Poughkeepsie Flibberjabbers had added Victor Wembanyama and Dylan Harper to a mostly-functional roster, they’d be contending in the playoffs too. And believe me, EVERYBODY would have picked those two guys given the spots in the order in those drafts. So why should I care about the Spurs any more than a completely made-up team? And that’s what they are, made up, made-for-TV: the Ping Pong Princes.
This is one of the unintended consequences the league might have to deal with from the way they set up the 3-2-1 draft system. They curtailed one set of problems by limiting consecutive promotions but they created another by randomizing all the picks. As soon as the path to success becomes (or at least resembles) randomness, people start tuning out. Anti-tanking is one thing, but…
In any case, I hope the sport doesn’t become emotion-free for me for more than this generation. It sucks experiencing a void when you should feel admiration, jealousy, or whatever. It sucks that one of the best players the game has ever seen is likely to become an asterisk for me. But there you go.
If it was just Wemby, we’d have no problem. But with all those picks, plus the constant crowing about Spurs Excellence (when this is the second time you’ve experienced lottery luck at exactly the right times and gotten generational, dynastic credit for it), you can miss me for always with that. I’ll tune in again when you make it to a title without those historical boosts and give you all the credit you can handle then.
Dave,
Any news about new uniforms for the season yet? It seems like it used to be a big deal but I can’t remember a huge uniform announcement recently.
Jon
I haven’t seen anything, but those usually come in August or September. I think after the blue uniforms it all went downhill for me! It was interesting for a few games, then I just couldn’t reconcile the color with the team (or tell at a glance who was who). I’m curious what people want to see in new jerseys that isn’t just a step backwards into tradition. I don’t have any great ideas.
Dave,
Why don’t you talk more about [Head Coach Tiago] Splitter and the job he did this season? I’d think you’d be advocating for him but instead you’re quiet. Any thoughts on whether he should be hired?
Eve
I talked about him right after the season ended. I’ll probably do another Mailbag on the subject if the coaching search doesn’t resolve soon. Mostly I haven’t written more because my assessment hasn’t changed.
Coach Splitter is a continuation of the exact same compromise-question that has defined the Blazers for most of the last decade: Is this good empirically or just good for Portland, all things considered?
I admire the job Coach Splitter did this season. The circumstances under which he took the reins were historically difficult. He had little to no forewarning or preparation. He earned the respect of his players, coaxed more wins out of his roster than many suspected he could, and even took his team to the playoffs. That’s incredible work. Anyone who can steer an organization under those conditions should be proud. Full marks, standing ovation.
Does that mean Coach Splitter is the best person for the job under any circumstances? I’m not as sure of that. He could be, but maybe not.
The Blazers might not be in a position to provide us that answer, at least not from the outside. There’s an advanced stat for players called VORP, or “Value Over Replacement Player”. It attempts to measure how good a player would be compared to an Average Joe Professional Guy you could get most anywhere. Although I think Splitter is a good coach, I’m not sure what his VORC (Value Over Replacement Coach) really is. Setting aside the difficult circumstances, could many other coaches have gotten the same results Splitter did given Portland’s current roster? In order to be empirically good—instead of just good, all things considered—the answer to that question has to be a clear, “No.” I’m just not sure it is.
Since we know that the difficult circumstances Portland endured this year won’t repeat—and thus don’t apply—we have to slice away large parts of what we liked about Coach Splitter before even considering him. Capacity to deal with unprecedented disaster without losing the team doesn’t necessarily equate to capacity to coach a non-disaster-experiencing team to a championship. The Blazers need to hire for the second quality, not the first. Maybe that is Splitter. Maybe it’s not. Either way, I just hope they make the right choice.
Dave,
I’m curious about the growth of centers over the last few years. Since they’re making a comeback I want to ask which centers from Blazers history would fit best in today’s game.
Marcus
Bill Walton is the obvious choice, but after that comes Sam Bowie. He was mobile, long, capable of blocking shots, and had an outside game. Lots of people will probably advocate for Arvydas Sabonis. I agree there’s nothing he can’t do. But by the time he got to the NBA his mobility was suspect. That would hurt him in the league nowadays. (I’d still take him, though! And Young Sabonis would vault to the top of this list above everyone else. He’d be at Nikola Jokic’s level.) You’d never turn down Greg Oden either, but his offensive range would be a detriment. If we counted LaMarcus Aldridge as a center—as he was in his years with the Spurs—he’d be a good get too. But honestly, Walton and Bowie are my two.
Thanks for the questions! You all can send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to get to as many as possible!
