It’s a New York turnaround as Braves pop home to face Mets

ATLANTA, GA - AUGUST 05: Atlanta Braves pitcher Bryce Elder (55) delivers a pitch during the MLB game between the Miami Marlins and the Atlanta Braves on August 05, 2026 at TRUIST Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images What a

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What is the story about?

What a quirk of the MLB schedule: the Braves wrap up a seven-game homestand, go to New York to face the Yankees, then immediately pop back to start a six-game homestand, which begins with the other New York team. Yeesh. To make it slightly sillier, the Braves just visited the Mets before that seven-game homestand began.

At 52-67 despite the season’s highest payroll, the Mets are… the Mets. That said, they’re not playing terribly right now: 5-3 in August, and 7-7 in the post-All Star Break portion

of July, which included a series win over the Braves. For the season, the Mets have largely been marred by being the Mets, rather than anything else. They have the league’s third-biggest xwOBA underperformance and its fourth-biggest FIP underperformance. Put those together and it’s hard to avoid a miserable season, even if your team is in the top in, say, both xwOBA and xFIP-. What’s “changed” since the All-Star Break is a smaller-sample reversal of fortune — the Mets have a massive xwOBA overperformance and are outperforming both their FIP and xFIP. So, y’know, stuff to be aware of in the back of your noggin. The Braves are 4-6 against the Mets coming into this series, so they’ll need to sweep ‘em to avoid losing the season series to them for the first time since 2017.

On the hill to potentially aid in that endeavor will be Bryce Elder, who brings an 88 ERA-, 108 FIP-, and 99 xFIP- (1.3 fWAR in 126 2/3 innings) to the proverbial table. Elder is in the midst of a silly run over his last four starts, as he’s allowed four homers and has a 45/121/105 line in that span — the Braves have won three of those games. Overall, Elder’s season has been about inconsistent as his game-to-game slider command. He started out pitching well, but the summer saw a decrease in performance with an especially-large uptick in the rate of homers yielded. One of those clunkers came in his only start against the Mets this year, which was one of his worst: a 2/2 K/BB ratio and two homers allowed in four innings, with the Braves getting blown out.

A random fact: Elder hasn’t had a start with an ERA, FIP, and xFIP below 4.00 since May 16… though in terms of ERA, FIP, and xFIP each, he’s had six, three, and four starts below that mark, respectively, since that May 16 date.

Opposing Elder for the Mets will be Christian Scott, who is having a nice season at 71/81/89 (1.7 fWAR in just 74 1/3 innings). He’s been consistently strong all year aside from a disastrous season debut. The Braves did rough him up a bit in early July (two homers, a 7/4 K/BB ratio in four innings), but he dominated them a couple of weeks ago in New York (7/1 K/BB ratio in six innings), only for the Mets to lose that game as the Braves avoided a sweep behind Chris Sale. Scott has struck out five or more batters in eight straight starts, and hasn’t allowed a homer in his last five outings. In fact, of the seven homers hit off him all season, six came in a three-game stretch.